North American Responses to the Global Downturn

Extract

The North American economies are expected to recover pre-crisis levels of output earlier than most of their European counterparts. The resilience of these economies is partly a reflection of factors underlying the trend rate of capacity growth. Population projections in North America are favourable for medium-term growth prospects, partly due to policies that tend to encourage highly skilled inward migration. At the same time, the US is one of few countries that maintained strong productivity growth during the downturn (at a significant cost in terms of employment), allowing an increase in US productivity levels relative to the other major economies. In addition, the relatively rapid recovery expected in the North American economies reflects more aggressive fiscal policies in the US and Canada than in most European economies, as well as credit easing undertaken by the Federal Reserve, which has kept corporate borrowing costs low relative to levels in the UK and Euro Area. Canada and Mexico have also benefitted from the recovery in the oil price, which eases budgetary pressures in particular.