This is the first of a pair of papers covering the production and use of probability forecasts at ranges of 3 to 10 days at the Met Office using the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System (EPS). The use of ensembles is intended to provide a set of forecasts which cover the range of possible uncertainty, recognising that it is impossible to obtain a single deterministic forecast which is always correct. We present a brief review of ensemble forecasting techniques and their use for the generation of probability forecasts. A wide range of probability forecasting products and tools are now available to forecasters at the Met Office, generated from the EPS. These will be described, and their use and interpretation discussed, both for site-specific forecast data and for fields of data covering a wider area. An important part of any forecasting system is verification: this is covered in some detail using several different methods, for the site-specific forecasts of surface weather parameters. Comparisons are made between the probabilistic forecasts and equivalent deterministic forecasts generated from the high-resolution ECMWF model, and it is evident that the former are more skilful according to most assessment methods for forecasts more than three days ahead. The companion paper shows how forecasters use the vast amounts of information available in forecast production (Young and Carroll 2002).

The term ‘medium range’ is taken to refer to forecasts for lead times ranging from about 2 or 3 days ahead up to about 10 days ahead. A wide variety of numerical model products are available to the forecaster nowadays, and one of the most important of these is the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System (EPS). This paper shows how forecasters at the Met Office use these products, in particular the EPS, in an operational environment in the production of medium-range forecasts for a variety of customers, and illustrates some of the techniques involved. Particular reference is made to the PREVIN post-processing system for the EPS which is described in the companion paper by Legg et al. (2002). Forecast products illustrated take the form of synoptic charts (produced primarily via Field Modification software), text guidance and other graphical formats. The probabilistic approach to forecasting is discussed with reference to various examples, in particular the application of the EPS in providing early warnings of severe weather for which risk assessment is increasingly important. A central theme of this paper is the vital role played by forecasters in interpreting the output from the models in terms of the likely weather elements, and using the EPS to help assess confidence levels for a particular forecast as well as possible alternative synoptic evolutions. Verification statistics are presented which demonstrate how the EPS helps the forecaster to add value to the wide range of individual deterministic model products and that furthermore, the forecaster can improve upon many probabilistic products derived directly from the ensemble.

Three severe storms caused great damage in Europe in December 1999. The first storm hit Denmark and Germany on 3 and 4 December, and the other two storms crossed France and Germany on 26 and 28 December. In this study, the performance of the Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) in predicting these intense storms is investigated. Results indicate that the EPS gave early indications of possible severe storm occurrence, and was especially useful when the deterministic TL319L60 forecasts issued on successive days were highly inconsistent. These results indicate that the EPS is a valuable tool for assessing quantitatively the risk of severe weather and issuing early warnings of possible disruptions.

The impact of an increase of the ensemble system horizontal resolution (TL255 integration from a TL511 analysis instead of the operational TL159 integration from a TL319 analysis) on the system performance is also investigated. Results show that the resolution increase enhances the ensemble performance in predicting the position and the intensity of intense storms.

A method of estimating the economic value of weather forecasts for decision-making is described. This method has recently been used for user-oriented verification of probability forecasts, but is here applied to aid forecast users in optimising their decision-making from probability forecasts. Value may be calculated in the same way for either probability forecasts or deterministic forecasts, and thus provides the user with a direct comparison of the value of each in terms of money saved, which is more relevant than most standard verification scores. The method is illustrated using site-specific probability forecasts generated from the ECMWF ensemble prediction system and deterministic forecasts from the ECMWF high-resolution global model. It is found that for most forecast events and for most users the probability forecasts have greater value than the deterministic forecasts from a higher resolution model.

In this study a non-hydrostatic version of the PSU/NCAR mesoscale model is used to simulate an active western disturbance (WD) that affected the Indian region in January 1997. The role of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) and convection parameterisation schemes in the development of the WD is investigated. Analysis and predictions for some fields, including sea level pressure, geopotential height, temperature, horizontal wind and precipitation are examined. Some statistical scores are also calculated and compared. It is found that the performance of the Hong-Pan (as implemented in the NCAR MRF model) and Betts-Miller (or Grell) schemes as PBL and convection parameterisation schemes respectively are best compared to the other schemes used in this study.

Owing to the decrease of stratospheric ozone during the southern spring (starting in September), the city of Punta Arenas (53.1°S, 70.9°W) and its surroundings are exposed to a high incidence of ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation during this period. Ozone denatures DNA, and prolonged exposure may cause skin carcinoma and cataracts. Consequently, there is great concern among the inhabitants of this region regarding the possible effects of long-term exposure to UV-B. In this work we apply and further develop a pilot study carried out in 1995 which looks at the simple operational method of forecasting ozone levels some 42 hours in advance. The method is based on the prediction of the 100 mb-temperature from ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), which is well correlated with total column ozone levels. It allows the inhabitants of the Magallanes region to be alerted to potentially high incidences of UV-B radiation during the Austral spring.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has been providing weather services for Australian Antarctic expeditions since the first expedition of 1947 and the forecasting services have been gradually evolving over the decades. However, with the advent of high bandwidth communications into Antarctica in the early 1990s there has been, for the first time, access to high-resolution satellite imagery, numerical model data and global observational datasets. Over the past seven years locally designed and developed forecast systems have matured and now provide the Antarctic forecaster with a comprehensive suite of systems to assist in the timely and accurate provision of aviation, marine and terrestrial forecasts. The ease with which these data may be manipulated, displayed and interpreted is expected to have a positive impact on the quality of forecasts provided to the Antarctic user.

A triple-nested regional weather prediction model was used to investigate the effects of the model horizontal resolution and orography on southwest monsoon precipitation over India. Numerical experiments with different resolution topography and different horizontal resolution model domains were conducted. Simulation results indicate that both the distribution and intensity of simulated southwest monsoon precipitation over India is highly sensitive to model horizontal resolution and topography. The model with a finer resolution is able to predict mesoscale organization of rainfall over the land mass. Rainfall predicted over the coarse domain is much less than that observed owing to its unrealistic representation of orographic effects and mesoscale forcings. Simulated wind speed, surface pressure, and latent and sensible heat flux distributions are also sensitive to the model resolution. Larger values and more detailed structure of the distribution of the wind speed and latent and sensible heat fluxes are simulated in the finer domains.

Patterns often sought in meteorological fields are ridge lines or narrow zones of relatively high or low values (e.g. stripes or bands in satellite imagery). A method for the automatic detection of such features is presented, using input fields given on regular grids. The fundamental idea is that a grid point is a plausible position for a significant line where not more than two (out of eight) neighbours exhibit better suitability to lie on that very line. Locations with three or more superior neighbours are considered unsuitable, or at least less qualified, for representing positions of the line. This criterion derives from the concept that a significant line passing through a point normally enters the latter from one of the adjacent points and leaves through another neighbour, with these two special neighbours permissibly having superior values of the appropriate test variable. It is empirically demonstrated for selected applications within the field of air mass analysis (including objective front positioning on the basis of numerical model output) that the identification of points satisfying the formulated ‘2-out-of-8’ criterion is, when linked with simple post-processing steps, sufficient to accomplish a good recognition of the sought patterns.

Numerical simulations are performed using the Penn State University/ National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) to study the impact of initial conditions on the super cyclone which hit the coast of Orissa in 1999. Because analysis of the cyclone's circulation was inadequate in the initial fields owing to the coarse resolution of the operational analysis systems and sparse oceanic data coverage, synthetic vortex data were generated using empirical relations and used in the analysis. Four-dimensional data assimilation is performed in order to assimilate the synthetic vortex in the initial stage to the model.

Considerable improvement in the track is obtained by using the synthetic vortex. With better specification of the initial vortex structure, the model successfully simulated the typical tropical cyclone characteristics, such as asymmetries in the wind field: the strongest winds occurred in the east and close to the cyclone's centre, strong wind gradients were found between the centre and the maximum wind region, and there was a slow decrease in wind speed up to the middle troposphere. Despite failing to produce the intense pressure drop observed for this cyclone, the model shows much better cyclone development with enhanced initial condition than the analysis.

In this study 320 people in Hong Kong were interviewed to assess their understanding and perception of severe weather warnings. The majority of the respondents (72%) received warnings from mass media. Although 99.4% of the interviewees claimed they knew all the warning signals, results indicate that most of them have only a basic understanding of what they mean. The study revealed that the warnings often lack other important information, such as the time of issue, validity period and precautions to be taken. Only 31% of the respondents stated they would take precautions at the issue of warnings, although people aged over 60 tended to be well prepared for the onset of severe weather. Public education is necessary to promote people's understanding of the warnings and awareness of the risks of severe weather.