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An operational method for forecasting total column ozone for Punta Arenas, Chile

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 August 2002

R Monreal McMahon ,
R Aguilar ,
V Valderrama  and
P J A Burt
R Monreal McMahon
Affiliation:
Department of Mathematics and Physics, Universidad de Magallanes, Casilla 113-D, Punta Arenas, Chile
R Aguilar
Affiliation:
Department of Mathematics and Physics, Universidad de Magallanes, Casilla 113-D, Punta Arenas, Chile
V Valderrama
Affiliation:
Department of Mathematics and Physics, Universidad de Magallanes, Casilla 113-D, Punta Arenas, Chile
P J A Burt
Affiliation:
Natural Resources Institute, University of Greenwich, Chatham Maritime, Kent ME4 4TB, UK
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Abstract

Owing to the decrease of stratospheric ozone during the southern spring (starting in September), the city of Punta Arenas (53.1°S, 70.9°W) and its surroundings are exposed to a high incidence of ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation during this period. Ozone denatures DNA, and prolonged exposure may cause skin carcinoma and cataracts. Consequently, there is great concern among the inhabitants of this region regarding the possible effects of long-term exposure to UV-B. In this work we apply and further develop a pilot study carried out in 1995 which looks at the simple operational method of forecasting ozone levels some 42 hours in advance. The method is based on the prediction of the 100 mb-temperature from ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), which is well correlated with total column ozone levels. It allows the inhabitants of the Magallanes region to be alerted to potentially high incidences of UV-B radiation during the Austral spring.

Type
Research Article
Information
Meteorological Applications , Volume 9 , Issue 3 , September 2002 , pp. 327 - 333
Copyright
© 2002 Royal Meteorological Society

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