Application of post-processing tools to improve visualisation and quality of numerical short-range predictions over Central Europe

Abstract

In an attempt to improve short-range weather predictions in Central Europe, a research project was carried out in Austria which involves adapting the WELS weather prediction system to the Central European environment. This PC-based system is currently in operational use in parts of the United States, chiefly in support of winter highway maintenance operations. The system rests upon the concept of hybrid modelling: an independent, grid-based mesoscale forecast model, integrating the full set of prognostic equations, delivers a prediction which can, in combination with topographic properties, be visualised by a Graphical User Interface (GUI). This post-processing tool seems to have a promising future, especially because it includes the opportunity of adjusting the output of the prediction model; also, locally generated observations can be incorporated into the forecasting process. The use of the forecast-manipulation facilities is appropriate if the prediction seems to be off-track; the time-consuming rerun of the entire forecast model in the case of derailing predictions can be avoided.