In this paper, we study the positive and normative implications of financial shocks in a standard New Keynesian model that includes banks and frictions in the market for bank capital. We show how such frictions influence materially the effects of bank liquidity shocks and the properties of optimal policy. In particular, they limit the scope for countercyclical monetary policy in the face of these shocks. A fiscal policy instrument can complement monetary policy by offsetting the balance-sheet effects of these shocks, and jointly optimal policies attain the same equilibrium that monetary policy (alone) could attain in the absence of equity-market frictions.

This study investigates the labor market under increased automation of middle-skilled jobs wherein worker suitability for these jobs is considered. We examine two effects of increased automation on workers. The first effect is the possibility of replacement of middle-skilled workers by machines. The second effect is the diversity in job mismatch probabilities of workers. If machines perform a worker’s suitable jobs more (or less) than the worker’s unsuitable jobs, then the worker’s job mismatch probability rises (or declines). Because workers who have larger job mismatch probabilities remain job seekers, it is more difficult for a firm to find a suitable worker. Due to these two effects, underemployment rises.

This is the second part of a two-part survey of the modern theory of nonlinear dynamical systems. We focus on the study of statistical properties of orbits generated by maps, a field of research known as ergodic theory. After introducing some basic concepts of measure theory, we discuss the notions of invariant and ergodic measures and provide examples of economic applications. The question of attractiveness and observability, already considered in Part I, is revisited and the concept of natural, or physical, measure is explained. This theoretical apparatus then is applied to the question of predictability of dynamical systems, and the notion of metric entropy is discussed. Finally, we consider the class of Bernoulli dynamical systems and discuss the possibility of distinguishing orbits of deterministic chaotic systems and realizations of stochastic processes.

We investigate the stability properties of Muth's model of price movements when agents choose a production level using replicator dynamic learning. It turns out that when there is a discrete set of possible production levels, possible stable states and stability conditions differ between adaptive learning and replicator dynamic learning.

This paper develops a theory of human capital to investigate the role of early childhood health in explaining the large and persistent schooling gaps observed within and across countries. Quantitative analysis using the theory and data from 98 countries shows that early health inequalities within developingcountries strongly amplify later schooling gaps— counterfactually eliminating inequalities reduces schooling Ginis by an average of 18% in developing economies but has only mild effects in richer countries. Moreover, early health inequalities are found to be an important source of schooling variation across countries— universally equating early health to the average US level reduces the cross-country standard deviation of average schooling attainment by over 40%. Additional policy experiments reveal that the gains from early health interventions tend to be amplified by later educational investments in developing economies, while those targeting school-aged children may be limited if early health conditions are ignored.

This paper provides a closed-form solution to a standard asset pricing model with habit formation when the growth rate of endowment follows a first-order Gaussian autoregressive process. We determine conditions that guarantee the existence of a stationary bounded equilibrium. The findings are useful because they allow to evaluate the accuracy of various approximation methods to nonlinear rational expectation models. Furthermore, they can be used to perform simulation experiments to study the finite sample properties of various estimation methods.

By studying complete and incomplete dynamic financial markets, I show that if some agents are money-illusioned and neglect inflation, the rational agents who are aware of inflation are driven out of the market in the long run, in the sense that the money-illusioned agents consume the economy's entire endowment. The reason for this finding is that with inflation, the money-illusioned agents always believe that the return on their savings is higher than it actually is. Because these agents trade financial assets in markets with the rational agents, the rational agents end up being borrowers and the money-illusioned agents lenders. Because the rational agents' debt accumulates over time, they become so indebted that the money-illusioned agents eventually consume the economy's entire endowment. If there is deflation, the opposite is true, and the rational agents evolutionarily dominate.

This paper studies how search externalities and wage bargaining distort vacancy creation and the allocation of workers to jobs in markets with two-sided heterogeneity. To do so, I propose a model of a frictional labor market where heterogeneous workers decide which job to look for and firms decide which technology to adopt. At equilibrium, there is perfect segmentation across sectors, which is determined by a unique threshold of workers' productivity. This threshold is inefficient because of participation and composition externalities. The Pigouvian tax scheme that decentralizes optimal sorting shows that these externalities have opposite signs. Furthermore, their relative strength depends on the distribution of workers' skills, so that when there are many (few) skilled workers, too many (few) high-technology jobs are created.

This paper shows, in an overlapping-generations economy à la Diamond [American Economic Review 55, 1126–1150 (1965)], that when savings in an unbacked asset (e.g., fiat money) bear some risk of becoming suddenly worthless, the market does not implement the best steady state attainable with that asset. Nonetheless, in the absence of absolutely riskless fiat money and excluding resorting to redistributive fiscal policies that would make it possible to attain the first-best steady state, this best monetary steady state can be implemented as a competitive equilibrium with the adequate policy of taxes on returns to capital, subsidies to returns to monetary savings, and lump-sum transfers. The policy is, at the steady state, balanced every period and nonredistributive.

The objective of this book is to provide “a systematic theory of endogenous business fluctuations and growth with a hierarchical structure of integrated macro-dynamical models” (p. 372). The starting point is Tobin's neoclassical model of monetary growth, and successive chapters show how Tobin's model can be extended in various “realistic” directions while preserving the relevant adding-up and balance-sheet constraints of a macro model. The work reported here is squarely in an ongoing European theoretical tradition that eschews the stochastic, representative-agent, approach to macroeconomic modeling. Absent stochastic disturbances, the authors provide a qualitative analysis of dynamic behavior for a variety of closed-economy models—a variety that, as the authors themselves point out, is closely related to three prototype models studied in Part I of Sargent's 1977 book, Macroeconomic Theory.

The rate of innovation in Information Technology (IT) has slowed down over time. The slowdown is evident both in the data on quality-adjusted prices of computers, and performance of microprocessors used in computers. The model in this paper shows that an IT–labor elasticity of substitution that is greater than 1 can explain the slowdown. With an elasticity of substitution greater than 1, however, slowing innovation can result in sustained labor productivity and output growth. Sustained growth is possible because an IT–labor elasticity of substitution greater than 1 results in a continuously increasing share of IT in production costs, which counteracts the effect of slowing innovation on labor productivity and output growth. In this environment of slowing innovation, increasing IT share and sustained growth, employment can increase or decrease, depending on the values of the IT–labor elasticity of substitution and the price elasticity of demand for IT-enabled consumption goods.

This paper shows how fiscal policy affects unemployment in a New Keynesian model with search and matching frictions and distortionary taxation. The model is estimated using US data that includes labor market flows and distinct fiscal instruments. Several findings stand out. First, unemployment multipliers for spending and consumption tax cuts are substantial, even though output multipliers turn out to be less than one. Second, multipliers for labor tax cuts are small. Third, fiscal rules enhance the positive effects of discretionary fiscal policy. However, these expansionary effects on the multipliers are modest compared to earlier studies.

This paper examines optimal policy in a macroeconomic model with collateral constraints. Binding collateral constraints yield inefficient competitive equilibrium allocations because they distort the optimal utilization of real resources. I identify the set of policy instruments that can be used by a Ramsey planner to achieve the first-best and the second-best (i.e., constrained planner's) allocations. A system of distortionary taxes on capital and labor income, along with direct lump-sum transfers among borrowers and lenders replicates the first-best outcome. The tax rates correct for the marginal distortions, whereas the direct lump-sum transfers perform income redistributions among the agents. In absence of direct lump-sum transfers, the distortionary taxes have an additional role, i.e., to perform implicit income transfers, and only second-best outcomes are attainable. I also derive the optimal policy in response to real and financial shocks, and show how the policy recommendations differ depending on the set of policy instruments available.

The present study examines the problem facing a resource-importing economy seeking to achieve energy independence by developing a renewable substitute. The invention of the substitute is assumed to follow a stochastic process that can be influenced by investment in energy research and development. I analyze the optimal investment strategy under alternative assumptions with respect to the economy's access to international financial markets, the terms on which credit is available, and the country's degree of dependence on resource imports. It is found that, in general, having access to capital markets does not necessarily lead to a higher investment rate. However, in the empirically relevant range of elasticity of intertemporal consumption substitution, the economy with access to credit invests more than under financial autarky. A higher degree of dependence on resource imports implies a lower optimal investment. Arrival of the substitute does not necessarily cause an immediate improvement in the net foreign asset position but may in fact cause its further deterioration.

This study introduces automation into a Schumpeterian growth model to explore the effects of R&D and automation subsidies. R&D subsidy increases innovation and growth but decreases the share of automated industries and the degree of capital intensity in the aggregate production function. Automation subsidy has the opposite effects on these macroeconomic variables. Calibrating the model to US data, we find that raising R&D subsidy increases the welfare of high-skill workers but decreases the welfare of low-skill workers and capital owners, whereas increasing automation subsidy increases the welfare of high-skill workers and capital owners but decreases the welfare of low-skill workers. Therefore, whether the government should subsidize innovation or automation depends on how it evaluates the welfare gains and losses of different agents in the economy.

This paper applies the common stochastic trends representation approach to the time series of total factor productivity (TFP) and the relative price of investment (RPI) to investigate the modeling of neutral technology (NT) and investment-specific technology (IST) and its econometric ramifications on the analysis of general equilibrium model. The permanent and transitory movements in both series are estimated efficiently via Markov chain Monte Carlo methods using band matrix algorithms. The results indicate that TFP and the RPI are, each, well represented by a differenced first-order autoregressive process. In addition, their time series share a common trend component that we interpret as reflecting changes in general purpose technology. These results are consistent with studies that suggest that (1) the traditional view of assuming that NT and IST follow independent processes is not supported by the features of the time series and (2) improper specification of secular trends may distort estimation and inference. Notably, the findings provide some guidance to minimize the effect of idiosyncratic and common trend misspecifications on the analysis of impulse dynamics and propagation mechanisms in macroeconomic models.

This paper applies a social learning model to the optimal consumption rule of Allen and Carroll [Macroeconomic Dynamics 5(2001), 255–271] and delivers convincing convergence dynamics toward the optimal rule. These findings constitute a significant improvement over previous results in the literature, in terms of both speed of convergence and parsimony of the learning model. The learning model exhibits several appealing features: it is frugal, is easy to apply to a various range of learning objectives, and requires few procedures and little information. Particular care is given to behavioral interpretation of the modeling assumptions in light of evidence from the fields of psychology and social science. Our results highlight the need to depart from the genetic metaphor, and account for intentional decision-making, based on agents' relative performances. By contrast, we show that convergence is strongly hindered by exact imitation processes, or random exploration mechanisms, which are usually assumed when modeling social learning behavior. Our results suggest a method for modeling bounded rationality, which could be interestingly tested in a wide range of economic models with adaptive dynamics.

This paper offers a framework for measuring global growth and inflation, built on standard index number theory, national accounts principles, and the concepts and methods for international macro-economic comparisons. Our approach provides a sound basis for purchasing power parity (PPP)- and exchange rate (XR)-based global growth and inflation measures. The Sato–Vartia index number system advocated here offers very similar results to a Fisher system but has the added advantage of allowing a complete decomposition with PPP or XR effects. For illustrative purposes, we present estimates of global growth and inflation for 141 countries over the years 2005 and 2011. The contribution of movements in XRs and PPPs to global inflation are presented. The aggregation properties of the method are also discussed.

We study production functions with capital and labor as arguments that exhibit positive, yet diminishing marginal products and constant returns to scale. We show that such functions satisfy the Inada conditions if (i) both inputs are essential and (ii) an unbounded quantity of either input leads to unbounded output. This allows for an alternative characterization of the neoclassical production function that altogether dispenses with the Inada conditions. Although this proposition generalizes to the case of n > 2 factors of production, its converse does not hold: 2n Inada conditions do not imply that each factor is essential.

Although China’s monetary and financial system differs drastically from its Western counterpart, empirical studies covering this vast economy have often been simple reestimations or recalibrations of models originally designed to describe US or European monetary policy. In this paper, we aim to assess Chinese monetary policy and, in particular, monetary policy transmission through yield curves into the real economy. Our study takes into account the peculiarities of the Chinese economy: Namely, our model includes both China’s modern attempts at a market-based monetary policy as well as the “authority-based” one that is a relic of the original banking system. Besides, it considers the special nature of the Chinese treasury bond market, which is separated into two independent ones with very limited direct arbitrage opportunities between almost identical assets. Finally, it incorporates the role of real estate, which played an essential role in China during the last decade. Our results show that different monetary policy shocks cause asymmetric effects on macroeconomic and financial variables.