Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-vdxz6 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-27T23:24:50.508Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

A SUNSPOT-BASED THEORY OF UNCONVENTIONAL MONETARY POLICY

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  15 July 2020

Roger E. A. Farmer*
Affiliation:
University of Warwick and University of California Los Angeles
Pawel Zabczyk
Affiliation:
International Monetary Fund
*
Address correspondence to: Roger E. A Farmer, Department of Economics, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, United Kingdom. e-mail: [email protected]. Phone: +44 (0) 24 761 5008.

Abstract

This paper is about the effectiveness of qualitative easing, a form of unconventional monetary policy that changes the risk composition of the central bank balance sheet. We construct a general equilibrium model where agents have rational expectations, and there is a complete set of financial securities, but where some agents are unable to participate in financial markets. We show that a change in the risk composition of the central bank’s balance sheet affects equilibrium asset prices and economic activity. We prove that, in our model, a policy in which the central bank stabilizes non-fundamental fluctuations in the stock market is self-financing and leads to a Pareto efficient outcome.

Type
Articles
Creative Commons
The views expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
Copyright
© International Monetary Fund 2020

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

We thank participants of seminars at the Bank of Italy, National Institute for Economic and Social Research, Swiss National Bank, and Warwick University. Christian Hepenstrick, Francesco Lippi, and Bernard Winkler have all contributed thoughtful discussions of our work, and we thank them for their comments. We have also benefited from conversations with Ben Broadbent, Minouche Shafik, and Martin Weale.

An earlier incarnation of this paper with the title “Qualitative Easing: How it Works and Why it Matters” [Farmer (2012c)] appeared as an The National Bureau of Economic Research and a Centre for Economic Policy Research working paper. The current version was written after extensive discussions with Pawel Zabczyk during, and following, Farmer’s visit, as Senior Houblon-Norman Fellow at the Bank of England in 2013. Farmer thanks the Center for Central Bank Studies at the Bank of England for their hospitality.

The paper’s findings, interpretations, and conclusions are entirely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the International Monetary Fund, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent

References

REFERENCES

Arajo, A., Schommer, S., and Woodford, M. (2015) Conventional and unconventional monetary policy with endogenous collateral constraints. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 7, 143.Google Scholar
Arrow, K. J. (1964) The role of securities in the optimal allocation of risk bearing. Review of Economic Studies 31, 9196.10.2307/2296188CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Balasko, Y. and Shell, K. (1993) Lump-sum taxation: The static economy. In: Robert Becker, M. B. and Jones, R. (eds.), General Equilibrium, Growth, and Trade: The Legacy of Lionel McKenzie II, pp. 168180. New York, NY: Academic Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Buiter, W. H. (2008) Quantitative easing and qualitative easing: A terminological and taxonomic proposal. Financial Times, Willem Buiter’s mavercon blog.Google Scholar
Buiter, W. H. (2010) Reversing unconventional monetary policy: Technical and political considerations. In: Balling, M., Berk, J. M. and Strauss-Kahn, M.-O. (eds.), The Quest for Stability: The Macro View. SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, Chapter 3, pp. 2342. Vienna: SUERF.Google Scholar
Cass, D. and Shell, K. (1983) Do sunspots matter? Journal of Political Economy 91, 193227.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cozzi, G., Goenka, A., Kang, M. and Shell, K. (2017) Winners and losers from price-level volatility: Money taxation and information frictions. In: Nishimura, K., Venditti, A. and Yannelis, N. C. (eds.), Sunspots and Non-Linear Dynamics: Essays in Honor of Jean-Michel Grandmont, Volume 31 of Studies in Economic Theory, pp. 387402. Switzerland: Springer International Publishing.10.1007/978-3-319-44076-7_16CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Curdia, V. and Woodford, M. (2011) The central bank balance sheet as an instrument of monetary policy. Journal of Monetary Economics 58, 5479.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Daepp, M., Hamilton, M., West, G. and Bettencourt, L. (2015) The mortality of companies. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 12, 18.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Farmer, R. E. A. (2012a) Animal spirits, persistent unemployment and the belief function. In: Frydman, R. and Phelps, E. S. (ed.), Rethinking Expectations: The Way Forward for Macroeconomics, Chapter 5, pp. 251276. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Farmer, R. E. A. (2012b) Confidence, crashes and animal spirits. Economic Journal 122, 155172.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Farmer, R. E. A. (2012c) Qualitative Easing: How it Works and Why it Matters, NBER Working Paper 18421 and CEPR Discussion Paper 9153.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Farmer, R. E. A. (2014) Asset prices in a Lifecycle Economy, NBER Working Paper Number 19457.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Farmer, R. E. A. (2015) Global Sunspots and Asset Prices in a Monetary Economy, NBER Working Paper 20831.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Farmer, R. E. A. (2018) Pricing assets in a perpetual youth model. Review of Economic Dynamics 30, 106124.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Farmer, R. E. A. and Zabczyk, P. (2019) The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level in Overlapping Generations Models, CEPR Discussion Paper no. 13432, August.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gertler, M. and Karadi, P. (2011) A model of unconventional monetary policy. Journal of Monetary Economics 58, 1734.10.1016/j.jmoneco.2010.10.004CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goenka, A. and Préchac, C. (2006) Stabilizing sunspots. Journal of Mathematical Economics 42, 544555.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Greenwood, R., Hanson, S. G. and Liao, G. Y. (2015) Price Dynamics in Partially Segmented Markets, Harvard Business School, Mimeo.Google Scholar
Hall, R. and Reis, R. (2016) Achieving Price Stability by Manipulating the Central Bank’s Payment on Reserves. LSE Mimeo.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
He, Z. and Krishnamurthy, A. (2013) Intermediary asset pricing. American Economic Review 103, 732–720.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kajii, A. (2007) Welfare gains and losses in sunspot equilibria. The Japanese Economic Review 58, 329344.10.1111/j.1468-5876.2007.00418.xCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kang, M. (2019) The welfare cost of excess volatility in incomplete markets with sunspots. Macroeconomic Dynamics 23, 10621073.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leeper, E. M. (1991) Equilibria under ‘active’ and ‘passive’ monetary and fiscal policies. Journal of Monetary Economics 27, 129147.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McMahon, M., Peiris, M. U. and Polemarchakis, H. (2018) Perils of unconventional monetary policy. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 93, 92114.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McMahon, M. and Polemarchakis, H. (2011) The unintended consequences of unconventional monetary policy. University of Warwick, Department of Economics: Mimeo.Google Scholar
Milgrom, P. and Stokey, N. (1982) Information trade and common knowledge. Journal of Economic Theory 26, 1727.10.1016/0022-0531(82)90046-1CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Patinkin, D. (1956) Money Interest and Prices, 2nd abridged ed., Cambridge, Massachusetts: The MIT Press.Google Scholar
Reis, R. (2016) QE in the Future: The Central Bank’s Balance Sheet in a Financial Crisis, LSE Mimeo.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shiller, R. J. (1981) Do stock prices move too much to be justified by subsequent changes in dividends? American Economic Review 71, 421436.Google Scholar
Starr, R. (1974) The price of money in a pure exchange monetary economy with taxation. Econometrica, 42, 4554.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Vayanos, D. and Vila, J.-L. (2009) The Preferred-Habitat Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rate, NBER Working Paper No. 15487.Google Scholar
Woodford, M. (2012) Methods of Policy Accommodation at the Interest-Rate Lower Bound, paper presented at the Jackson Hole Symposium, “The Changing Policy Landscape,” August 31–September 1, 2012.Google Scholar