Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-p9bg8 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-18T05:31:19.641Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

DEEP-ROOTED DETERMINANTS OF THE FERTILITY TRANSITION ACROSS COUNTRIES

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 June 2016

Alberto Basso  and
David Cuberes
Alberto Basso
Affiliation:
University of Plymouth
David Cuberes*
Affiliation:
Clark University
*
Address correspondence to: David Cuberes, Department of Economics, Jonas Clark Hall, Clark University, Worcester, MA 01610-1477, USA; e-mail: [email protected].
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

This paper documents a positive correlation between the genetic distance to the world technological frontier (United Kingdom, United States) and the year of the onset of the fertility transition across countries. This result is robust to controlling for a large set of geographical, climatic, historical, and institutional variables. Two main mechanisms could explain this reduced-form relationship. First, genetic distance to the world technological frontier can affect the onset of the fertility transition through its impact on the timing and intensity of technology adoption. Second, genetic distance to the technological frontier can capture other cultural differences and the process of diffusion of cultural norms that are related to fertility but not through technology adoption. We find suggestive evidence supporting both mechanisms.

Keywords

Genetic DistanceFertility TransitionCultureTechnology Adoption
Type
Articles
Information
Macroeconomic Dynamics , Volume 21 , Issue 7 , October 2017 , pp. 1712 - 1751
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2016 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

A previous version of this paper circulated as “Human Capital, Culture and the Onset of the Fertility Transition,” which was part of a chapter of Basso's Ph.D. dissertation. We would like to thank the editor, Carl-Johan Dalgaard, Oded Galor, Jinyoung Kim, Fabrice Murtin, Karl Taylor, Romain Wacziarg, and one anonymous referee for helpful comments. We have also benefited from useful feedback from seminar participants at the University of Sheffield, Royal Economic Society 2012, Queens College, and the conference “Intergenerational Transmission of Entrepreneurship, Occupations and Cultural Traits in the Process of Long-Run Economic Growth (Napoli).”

References

REFERENCES

Acemoglu, Daron (2009) Introduction to Modern Economic Growth. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Alesina, Alberto, Giuliano, Paola, and Nunn, Nathan (2011) Fertility and the plough. American Economic Review 101, 499–503.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Alesina, Alberto, Giuliano, Paola, and Nunn, Nathan (2013) On the origins of gender roles: Women and the plough. Quarterly Journal of Economics 128, 469–530.Google Scholar
Andersen, Thomas B., Carl-Johan Dalgaard, and Pablo Selaya (in press) Climate and the emergence of global income differences. Review of Economic Studies.Google Scholar
Angeles, Luis (2010) Demographic transitions: Analyzing the effects of mortality on fertility. Journal of Population Economics 23, 99–120.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Arbatli, Cemal Eren, Ashraf, Quamrul, and Galor, Oded (2015) The Nature of Conflict. CESifo working paper 5486.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ashraf, Quamrul and Galor, Oded (2013a) Genetic diversity and the origins of cultural fragmentation. American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings 103, 528–533.Google Scholar
Ashraf, Quamrul and Galor, Oded (2013b) The “out of Africa'' hypothesis, human genetic diversity, and comparative development. American Economic Review 103, 1–46.Google Scholar
Bailey, Amy K. (2009) How personal is the political? Democratic revolution and fertility decline. Journal of Family History 34, 407–425.Google Scholar
Becker, Gary S. (1981) A Treatise on the Family. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Becker, Gary S. and Lewis, Gregg H. (1973) On the interaction between the quantity and quality of children. Journal of Political Economy 81, 279–288.Google Scholar
Becker, Sascha O., Cinnirella, Francesco, and Woessmann, Ludger (2012) The effect of investment in children's education on fertility in 1816 Prussia. Cliometrica 6, 29–44.Google Scholar
Birchenall, Javier A. (2007) Escaping high mortality. Journal of Economic Growth 12, 351–387.Google Scholar
Bloom, David E. and Williamson, Jeffrey G. (1997) Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia. NBER working paper 6268.Google Scholar
Brown, John C. and Guinnane, Timothy W. (2002) Fertility transition in a rural, Catholic population: Bavaria 1880–1910. Population Studies 56, 35–49.Google Scholar
Brown, John C. and Guinnane, Timothy W. (2007) Regions and time in the European fertility transition: Problems in the Princeton project's statistical methodology. Economic History Review 60, 574–595.Google Scholar
Cavalli-Sforza, Luigi L., Menozzi, Paolo, and Piazza, Alberto (1994) The History and Geography of Human Genes. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Clark, Gregory and Cummins, Neil (2015) Malthus and modernity: Wealth, status, and fertility in England, 1500–1879. Journal of Population Economics 28, 3–29.Google Scholar
Cleland, John (2001) The effects of improved survival on fertility: A reassessment. Population and Development Review 27 (Supplement), 60–92.Google Scholar
Coale, Ansley J. and Watkins, Susan C. (1986) The Decline of Fertility in Europe. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Comin, Diego and Hobijn, Bart (2004) Cross-country technology adoption: Making the theories face the facts. Journal of Monetary Economics 51, 39–83.Google Scholar
Comin, Diego and Hobijn, Bart (2009) The CHAT Data set. NBER working paper 15319.Google Scholar
Dalgaard, Carl-Johan and Strulik, Holger (2013) The history augmented Solow model. European Economic Review 63, 134–149.Google Scholar
Desmet, Klaus, Le Breton, Michel, Ortuño-Ortín, Ignacio, and Weber, Shlomo (2011) The stability and breakup of nations: A quantitative analysis. Journal of Economic Growth 16, 183–213.Google Scholar
Diamond, Jared (1997) Guns, Germs, and Steel. New York: W.W. Norton.Google Scholar
Dyson, Tim and Murphy, Mike (1985) The onset of fertility transition. Population and Development Review 11, 1399–1440.Google Scholar
Eckstein, Zvi, Mira, Pedro, and Wolpin, Kenneth I. (1999) A quantitative analysis of Swedish fertility dynamics: 1751–1990. Review of Economic Dynamics 2, 137–165.Google Scholar
Ehrlich, Isaac and Lui, Francis T. (1991) Intergenerational trade, longevity, and economic growth. Journal of Political Economy 99, 1029–1059.Google Scholar
Galloway, Patrick R., Hammel, Eugene A., and Lee, Ronald D. (1994) Fertility decline in Prussia 1875 to 1910: A pooled cross-section time series analysis. Population Studies 48, 135–158.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Galloway, Patrick R., Lee, Ronald D., and Hammel, Eugene A. (1998) Infant mortality and the fertility transition: Macro evidence from Europe and new findings from Prussia. In Montgomery, Mark R. and Cohen, Barney (eds.), From Death to Birth: Mortality Decline and Reproductive Change, pp. 182–226. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.Google Scholar
Gallup, John L., Sachs, Jeffrey D., and Mellinger, Andrew D. (1999) Geography and Economic Development. CID Harvard University working paper 1.Google Scholar
Galor, Oded (2012) The demographic transition: Causes and consequences. Cliometrica 6, 1–28.Google Scholar
Galor, Oded and Klemp, Marc (2015) The Roots of Autocracy. Brown University working paper 2015-7.Google Scholar
Galor, Oded and Weil, David N. (1996) The gender gap, fertility, and growth. American Economic Review 86, 374–387.Google Scholar
Galor, Oded and Weil, David N. (1999) From Malthusian stagnation to modern growth. American Economic Review 89, 150–154.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Galor, Oded and Weil, David N. (2000) Population, technology, and growth: From Malthusian stagnation to the demographic transition and beyond. American Economic Review 90, 806–828.Google Scholar
Goldin, Claudia (1990) Understanding the Gender Gap: An Economic History of American Women. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Gorodnichenko, Yuriy and Roland, Gerard (2011a) Understanding the Individualism–Collectivism Cleavage and Its Effects: Lessons from Cultural Psychology. Mimeo, University of California, Berkeley.Google Scholar
Gorodnichenko, Yuriy and Roland, Gerard (2011b) Which dimensions of culture matter for long-run growth? American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings 101, 492–498.Google Scholar
Guinnane, Timothy W. (2011) The historical fertility transition and theories of long-run growth: A guide for economists. Journal of Economic Literature 49, 589–614.Google Scholar
Herzer, Dierk, Strulik, Holger, and Vollmer, Sebastian (2012) The long-run determinants of fertility: One century of demographic change 1900–1999. Journal of Economic Growth 17, 357–385.Google Scholar
Jeanty, P. Wilner (2010) SPMLREG: Stata Module to Estimate the Spatial Lag, the Spatial Error, the Spatial Durbin, and the General Spatial Models by Maximum Likelihood. Statistical software components S457135, Boston College Department of Economics.Google Scholar
Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem (2002) Does the mortality decline promote economic growth? Journal of Economic Growth 7, 411–439.Google Scholar
Kirk, Dudley (1996) Demographic transition theory. Population Studies 50, 361–387.Google Scholar
Lagerlö, Nils-Petter (2003) Gender equality and long-run growth. Journal of Economic Growth 8, 403–426.Google Scholar
La Porta, Rafael, Lopez-de-Silanes, Florencio, and Shleifer, Andrei (2008) The economic consequences of legal origins. Journal of Economic Literature 46, 285–332.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lee, Ronald (2003) The demographic transition: Three centuries of fundamental change. Journal of Economic Perspectives 17, 167–190.Google Scholar
Lehr, Carol S. (2009) Evidence on the demographic transition. Review of Economics and Statistics 91, 871–887.Google Scholar
Maddison, Angus (2003) The World Economy: Historical Statistics. Paris: OECD.Google Scholar
Meisenzahl, Ralf R. and Mokyr, Joel (2012) The rate and direction of invention in the British industrial revolution: Incentives and institutions. In Lerner, Josh and Stern, Scott (eds.), The Rate and Direction of Innovation, pp. 443–482. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Mokyr, Joel (2009) The Enlightened Economy: An Economic History of Britain, 1700–1870. London and New Haven, CT: Penguin Press and Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Murtin, Fabrice (2013) Long term determinants of the demographic transition: 1870–2000. Review of Economics and Statistics 95, 617–631.Google Scholar
Notestein, Frank W. (1945) Population: The long view. In Schultz, Theodore W. (ed.), Food for the World, pp. 36–57. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Nunn, Nathan and Puga, Diego (2012) Ruggedness: The blessing of bad geography in Africa. Review of Economics and Statistics 94, 20–36.Google Scholar
Putterman, Louis (2006) Agricultural Transition Data Set. Mimeo, Brown University.Google Scholar
Reher, David S. (2004) The demographic transition revisited as a global process. Population Space and Place 10, 19–42.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sachs, Jeffrey D., Kiszewski, Anthony, Mellinger, Andrew, Spielman, Andrew, Malaney, Pia, and Ehrlich, Sonia (2004) A global index of the stability of malaria transmission. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 70, 486–498.Google Scholar
Sah, Raaj K. (1991) The effects of child mortality changes on fertility choice and parental welfare. Journal of Political Economy 99, 582–606.Google Scholar
Soares, Rodrigo (2007) On the determinants of mortality reductions in the developing world. Population and Development Review 33, 247–287.Google Scholar
Spolaore, Enrico and Wacziarg, Romain (2009) The diffusion of development. Quarterly Journal of Economics 124, 469–529.Google Scholar
Spolaore, Enrico and Wacziarg, Romain (2011) Long term barriers to the international diffusion of innovations. In Frankel, Jeffrey and Pissarides, Christopher (eds.), NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2011, pp. 11–46. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Spolaore, Enrico and Wacziarg, Romain (2014) Long-term barriers to economic development. In Aghion, Philippe and Durlauf, Steven N. (eds.), Handbook of Economic Growth, pp. 121–176. Amsterdam: Elsevier, North-Holland.Google Scholar
Spolaore, Enrico and Wacziarg, Romain (2015) Fertility and Modernity. Discussion paper 0779, Department of Economics, Tufts University.Google Scholar
Tamura, Robert (2006) Human capital and economic development. Journal of Development Economics 79, 26–72.Google Scholar
van de Walle, Francine (1980) Education and the demographic transition in Switzerland. Population and Development Review 6, 463–472.Google Scholar
Weil, David (2013) Economic Growth, international ed. Harlow, UK: Pearson.Google Scholar