Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-dzt6s Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-28T08:48:41.315Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

SPECULATION IN COMMODITIES: KEYNES’ “PRACTICAL ACQUAINTANCE” WITH FUTURES MARKETS

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  27 August 2010

Abstract

In this paper we address the subject of Keynes as a speculator. We look first at the primary sources of information, which are in the form of unpublished letters and broker’s statements. Secondly, we look at the theory Keynes sparingly presented in his writings, but which nevertheless is grounded on his first-hand knowledge of speculative behavior. Thirdly, we examine the focus on speculation in commodities, which had great weight in his portfolio, and have chosen a particular commodity -wheat- for our investigation. In particular, we examine some of Keynes’s dealings in wheat futures with the aim of shedding light on the underlying investment strategy.

Type
Research Articles
Copyright
Copyright © The History of Economics Society 2010

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Blau, G. 1944. “Some Aspects of the Theory of Futures Trading.” The Review of Economic Studies 12 (1): 130.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brennan, M. J. 1958. “The Supply of Storage.” The American Economic Review 48 (1): 5072.Google Scholar
Capone, G., ed. 1939. The World Wheat Situation in 1938–39. Rome: International Institute of Agriculture. Bureau of Statistics.Google Scholar
Chua, J. H. and Woodward, R. S.. 1983. “J.M. Keynes’ Investment Performance: A Note.” The Journal of Finance 38 (1): 232235.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cootner, P. H. 1960. “Returns to Speculators: Telser versus Keynes.” The Journal of Political Economy 68 (4): 396404.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Emery, H. C. 1896. Speculation on the Stock and Produce Exchange of the United States. New York: Columbia University.Google Scholar
Erb, C. B. and Harvey, C. R.. 2006. “The Strategic and Tactical Value of Commodity Futures.” Financial Analyst Journal 62: 6997.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fantacci, L., Marcuzzo, M. C., Rosselli, A., and Sanfilippo, E.. 2012. “Speculation and Buffer Stocks: The Legacy of Keynes and Kahn.” Roma, Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei (forthcoming).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Forrester, R. B. 1931. “Commodity Exchanges in England.” The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 155: 196207.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gray, R. W. 1961. “The Search for a Risk Premium.” The Journal of Political Economy 69 (3): 250260.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gray, R. W. and Rutledge, D. J.. 1971. “The Economics of Commodity Futures Markets: A Survey.” Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics: 57108.Google Scholar
Harrod, R. F. 1951. The Life of John Maynard Keynes. London: Macmillan.Google Scholar
Hevesy, P. de. 1940. World Wheat Planning and Economic Planning in General. London, New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Hoffman, G. W. 1932. Future Trading upon Organized Commodity Markets in the United States. Philadelphia: University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Houthakker, H. S. 1955. “Restatement of the Theory of ‘Normal Backwardation’.” Coles Foundation Discussion Paper.Google Scholar
Houthakker, H. S. 1957. “Can Speculators Forecast Prices?The Review of Economics and Statistics 39 (2): 143151.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kaldor, N. 1939. “Speculation and Economic Stability.” The Review of Economic Studies 7 (1): 127.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Keynes, J. M. 1923. “Some Aspects of Commodity Markets.” The Manchester Guardian Commercial, Reconstruction Supplement 29. In CWK XII, pp. 255–266.Google Scholar
Keynes, J. M. 1930. A Treatise on Money. Volume 2. The Applied Theory of Money. London: Macmillan, CWK VI.Google Scholar
Keynes, J. M. 1936. The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. London: Macmillan, CWK VII.Google Scholar
Keynes, J. M. 1938. “The Policy of Government Storage of Food-Stuffs and Raw Materials.” The Economic Journal 48 (191): 449460. In CWK XXI: 456–470.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Keynes, J. M. 1939. “The Wheat Problem.” Keynes Papers, M/2/132–137. In CWK XXI: 505–508.Google Scholar
Keynes, J. M. 1973. The General Theory and After; Part I. Preparation. London, Macmillan, CWK XIII.Google Scholar
Kolb, R. W. 1992. “Is Normal Backwardation Normal?Journal of Futures Markets 12: 7591.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kregel, J. 2010. “Keynes’s Influence on Modern Economics: Some Overlooked Contributions of Keynes’s Theory of Finance and Economic Policy.” In Bateman, B., Hirai, T., and Marcuzzo, M. C., eds., The Return of Keynes: Keynes and Keynesian Policies in the New Millennium. Harvard: Harvard University Press, pp. 241256.Google Scholar
Leuthold, R. M., Junkus, J. C., and Cordieri, J. E.. 1989. The Theory and Practice of Futures Markets. Toronto: Lexington BooksGoogle Scholar
Marcuzzo, M. C. 2005. “Keynes and His Favourite Pupil. The Correspondence between Keynes and Kahn.” In Marcuzzo, M. C. and Rosselli, A., eds., Economists in Cambridge. A study through their correspondence, 1907–1946. London: Routledge, pp. 2157.Google Scholar
Mini, P. V. 1994. John Maynard Keynes: A Study in the Psychology of Original Work. New York: St. Martin’s Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mini, P. V. 1995. “Keynes’ Investments: Their Relation to the General Theory.” American Journal of Economics and Sociology 54 (1): 4756.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Moggridge, D., ed. 1983. Economic Articles and Correspondence: Investment and Editorial. London: Macmillan, CWK XII.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Moggridge, D. 1992. Maynard Keynes: An Economist’s Biography. London, New York: Routledge.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Radalj, K. 2002. Risk Premiums and the Forward Rate Anomaly: A Survey. Lugano: International Environmental Modelling and Software Society.Google Scholar
Santos, J. 2006. “Going against the Grain: Why Did Wheat Marketing in the United States and Canada Evolve So Differently?Business and Economic History (On-Line) 4: 121.Google Scholar
Skidelsky, R. J. A. 1983. John Maynard Keynes: A Biography. London: Macmillan.Google Scholar
Skidelsky, R. J. A. 2000. John Maynard Keynes. Fighting for Britain. London: Macmillan.Google Scholar
Stewart, B. 1949. “An Analysis of Speculative Trading in Grain Futures.” US Department of Agriculture Technical Bulletin, no. 1001.Google Scholar
Telser, L. G. 1958. “Futures Trading and the Storage of Cotton and Wheat.” The Journal of Political Economy 66 (3): 233255.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Timoshenko, V. P. 1928. Wheat Prices and the World Wheat Market. Ithaca: Cornell University.Google Scholar
Working, H. 1942. “Quotations on Commodity Futures as Price Forecasts.” Econometrica 10 (1): 3952.CrossRefGoogle Scholar