The Factors Affecting Airspace Capacity in Europe: A Cross-Sectional Time-Series Analysis Using Simulated Controller Workload Data

Abstract

Air traffic in Europe is increasing at a rapid rate and traffic patterns no longer display pronounced daily peaks but instead exhibit peak spreading. Airspace capacity planning can no longer be for the peak period but must consider the whole day. En route airspace capacity in the high density European air traffic network is determined by controller workload. Controller workload is primarily affected by the features of the air traffic and ATC sector. This paper considers the air traffic and ATC sector factors that affect controller workload throughout the whole day. A simulation study using the widely used Reorganized ATC Mathematical Simulator (RAMS) model of air traffic controller workload is conducted for the Central European Air Traffic Services (CEATS) Upper Area Control Centre region of Europe. A cross-sectional time series analysis of the simulation output is conducted with corrections for temporal autocorrelation in the data. The results indicate that a subset of traffic and sector variables and their parameter estimates can be used to predict controller workload in any sector of the CEATS region in any given hour.