Characterizing Cross-track Error Distributions for Continental Jet Routes

Extract

The establishment of standards for lateral separation between adjacent jet routes depends in large part on an adequate description of aircraft path-keeping ability. While it has been accepted for many years that deviations from route centreline follow a distribution which is more peaked in the core and longer tailed than the gaussian distribution which was initially assumed, the selection of an alternative distribution is still moot. Early studies of oceanic data suggested that a double exponential distribution gave a much better description of the core data. However, this distribution still appeared to underestimate the frequency of occurrence of very large errors, so that a double-double exponential distribution was proposed and is currently used for establishment of MNPS (Minimum Navigational Performance Specification) criteria for the North Atlantic organized track system. A physical rationale for the occurrence of the double-double exponential distribution has recently been derived, with suggestions for consideration of alternative formulations.