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Published online by Cambridge University Press: 11 November 2008
Peaceful resolution of the international conflict over Namibia has been a significant preoccupation of the United States and its four partners in the western contact group since April 1977, but neither the efforts led by the Administration of Jimmy Carter nor the very different approach taken by Ronald Reagan has succeeded. To the contrary, prospects for peaceful change in Namibia are ebbing. The present stalemate in negotiations is unlikely to be resolved before the end of Reagan's first term in January 1985. In the meantime, the territory's political, economic, and social circumstances will continue to stagnate, and the low-level and intermittent fighting in the northern operational areas will probably expand in scope and costs.
1 Although considerable attention is given in this analysis to South African participation in the international negotiations over Namibia, I do not attempt an assessment of U.S. policy. For my views, see my articles, ‘Which Way in Southern Africa?’, in Africa Report (Washington, D.C.), 05–06 1981, pp. 17–22;Google Scholar‘Has Constructive Engagement Died?’, in Orbis (Philadelphia), 25, 4, Winter 1982, pp. 867–73;Google Scholar and ‘Has Constructive Engagement Failed? An Assessment of Reagan's Southern African Policy’, in South Africa International (Johannesburg), 13, 3, 01 1982, pp. 420–33.Google Scholar
1 This background material comes from Gerhard Tötemeyer and Seiler, John, ‘South West Africa/Namibia: a study in polarization and confrontation’, in Seiler, (ed.), Southern Africa Since the Portuguese Coup (Boulder, 1980), pp. 79–96.Google Scholar
1 Seiler, John, ‘Bending Toward Our Will?: the failure of U.S. policy toward South Africa’, December 1979; see also, Memorandum from G. Mennen Williams (Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs) to Averell Harriman (Under-Secretary of State), ‘Significance of Odendaal White Paper’, 13 May 1964, in Lyndon Baines Johnson Presidential Library, National Security Files–South Africa, Memos, and Misc., Vol. I.Google Scholar
2 For an optimistic view of these talks, see Muller, Hilgard, South African Foreign Minister, in Republic of South Africa, House of Assembly Debates (Cape Town), 13, 9 05 1973, column 6090.Google Scholar For a balanced assessment, see Cowley, Clive, The Star (Johannesburg), 19 07 1973, p. 26.Google Scholar
1 Cowley, , The Star, 17 09 1974, p. 29;Google ScholarStrydom, Hans, Sunday Times (Johannesburg), 22 09 1974, p. 3;Google ScholarTo The Point (Johannesburg), 4 10 1974, pp. 7–8.Google Scholar
2 Clark, Caroline, Sunday Times, 13 October 1974, p. 1;Google Scholar also Financial Mail (Johannesburg), 4 10 1974, pp. 37–8.Google Scholar
3 Serfontein, J. H. P., Namibia? (Randburg, 1976), pp. 232–8.Google Scholar
4 Patten, John, The Star, 7 August 1975.Google Scholar
5 Windhoek Observer, 23 August 1980, p. 25, recounting a story by Barry Streek written for the Daily Dispatch (East London). For a more recent report on the continuing impact of South African security forces, see Allister Sparks, ‘South African Bishops Report Charges of Abuse by South African Forces in Namibia’, in The Washington Post, 15 May 1982.
1 Cowley, , The Star, 26 November 1976, p. 1.Google Scholar
1 Interviews, Windhoek and Pretoria, October–November 1976.
1 The Star, weekly airmail edn., 18 June, 1977, pp. 8–9.
2 Interviews, Windhoek, , March 1979.Google Scholar
1 Cf. Dale, Richard, ‘Walvis Bay: a naval gateway, an economic turnstile, or a diplomatic bargaining chip for the future of Namibia?’, in RUSI (London), 127, 1, 03 1982, pp. 31–6, published by the Royal United Services Institute for Defence Studies, London.Google Scholar
2 ‘Report on the Registration and Election Campaign in Namibia, 1978’, Christian Centre in Namibia, Windhoek, 28 November 1978.
1 The Seiler Report (Washington, D.C.), 04 1980, p. 2.Google Scholar
1 Interviews, New York, March 1982.
2 The Seiler Report, April 1980, p. 2.
3 Ibid. November 1980, p. 3.
1 Interviews, Washington and New York, September 1980.
1 Ibid. October–November 1980.
2 The Star, weekly airmail edn., 22 November 1980, p. 5; and Pik Botha, interview with South African Broadcasting Corporation, English Service, 25 November 1980.
3 Nossiter, Bernard D., ‘Anxiety over Namibia’, in The New York Times, 15 11 1980, p. 6; also interviews, Washington and New York, 11 1980.Google Scholar
4 The Star, weekly airmail edn., 3 January 1981, p. 1.
1 Interviews, New York, February 1981.
2 Ibid.
3 Interviews, Washington and New York, February 1981.
1 Ibid. See also Ambassador Donald F. McHenry in testimony to House Sub-Committee on Africa, 17 June 1981, in U.S. Policy Toward Namibia: Spring 1981 (Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 1981), p. 24.
2 Guest, Iain, ‘South Africa Pulls the Rug Away’, in The Guardian (London), 15 01 1981;Google ScholarAshford, Nicholas, ‘Namibia Failure Deals Blow to West’, in The Times (London), 15 01 1981, p. 1;Google ScholarLegum, Colin, ‘Breakdown of Namibia Talks Blow to West’, in The Observer (London), 18 01 1981;Google Scholar statement by Ahtisaari, Martti to 12th African-American Conference, Williamsburg, Virginia, 8–11 October 1981; and interviews, New York, February 1981.Google Scholar
3 Financial Mail, 16 January 1981, pp. 152–4 and 156; South African Press Association report, 18 January 1981, in South African Digest (Pretoria) 23 01 1981, p. 3;Google Scholar South African Broadcasting Corporation, ‘Editorial Comment’, 6 and 16 February 1981; and South African official statement, ‘Meeting on South West Africa/Namibia in Geneva, 7–14 January 1981’, in South African Digest, 6 February 1981, supplement.
4 The Star, weekly airmail edn., 14 February 1981, p. 3.
1 ‘Memorandum of Conversation: discussions with South African Government-15, 16 April 1981, Pretoria’, pp. 1–8, and for Pik Botha's pessimistic appraisal of the talks, after the Memorandum was leaked to the Washington press, see Financial Mail, 5 June 1981, p. 1131.
2 ‘Subject: background briefing on Botha visit’, 16 May 1981, Washington, D.C.; also Financial Mail, 22 May 1981, p. 889; and S.A.B.C., ‘Comment’, 18 May 1981.
3 Financial Mail, 4 September 1981, p. 1137.
4 S.A.B.C., ‘Comment’, 17 and 24 November 1981.
5 ‘Principles Concerning the Constituent Assembly and the Constitution for an Independent Namibia’, pp. 48–9, in Spiegel, Marianne A., United States Policy Options in Southern Africa: the next five years (Mt. Kisco, N.Y., 1981).Google Scholar
1 Hornsby, Michael, ‘Pretoria Offers Namibian Plan Guarded Welcome’, in The Times, 18 12 1981, p. 9.Google Scholar
2 Africa News (Durham, N.C.), 30 11 1981, pp. 4–6.Google Scholar
3 Ibid. 24 May 1982, pp. 4–5; and The New York Times, 3 June 1982, p. A7.
4 Verdon, Lexie, ‘Agreement Nears on Ending Namibia War, American Officials Say’, in The Washington Post, 14 07 1982, p. A18.Google Scholar
5 ‘U.S. Pushes to Get Cubans out of Angola’, in The New York Times, 26 09 1982, p. 3,Google Scholar and Bernard D. Nossiter, ‘U.S. Official Defends Policy on Cubans in Angola’, in Ibid. 7 October 1982, p. A9.
6 Bernard D. Nossiter, ‘Angolan sees U.S. “Paranoia” in Question of Cuban Troops’, in Ibid. 6 10 1982, p. A8.
7 Frank J. Prial, ‘Africans at UN Criticize Delays on Namibia’, in Ibid. 12 October 1982, p. A11.
8 Ibid. 13 October 1982, p. A7.
1 S.A.B.C., ‘Comment’, 15, 20, and 24 September 1982; and Joseph Lelyveld, ‘Western Plan for Namibia: the tables are turned’, in The New York Times, 7 May 1982, p. A3.
2 South African Digest, 21 May 1982, pp. 9–10.
3 The New York Times, 15 November 1980, p. 6.
4 For Kalangula's criticisms of Mudge, see Financial Mail, 20 November 1981, p. 940. For his resignation, see Allister Sparks, ‘Alliance Split Shakes Up Namibia Political Life’, in The Washington Post, 17 February 1982; Financial Mail, 19 February 1982, pp. 785–6; and Africa News, 22 February 1982, pp. 5–6 and 8.
1 Financial Mail, 5 March 1982, pp. 1049–50 and 1052.
2 Botha, P. W., ‘How South Africa Meets External Threat’, Keynote Address to the Transvaal Congress of the National Party, Pretoria, 13 September 1982.Google Scholar
3 Financial Mail, 10 September 1982, pp. 1252–3; also Slambrouck, Paul va., ‘South Africa “Recorganizes” Namibia Government as Talks Drag On’, in Christian Science Monitor (Boston), 22 09 1982.Google Scholar
4 Lister, Gwen, Windhoek Observer, 13 December 1980, p. 43, and 24 January 1981, p. 25.Google Scholar
5 Financial Mail, 12 February 1982, pp. 639 and 642; and Pisani, André du, ‘Namibia: the search for alternatives’, in South Africa International, 12, 1, 07 1981, p. 293.Google Scholar
1 Financial Mail, 12 September 1980, pp. 1204 5; 22 January 1982, pp. 300 and 302; and 28 May 1982, pp. 989–90.
2 ‘Civic Action in South West Africa’, an internal report by the South African Defence Force; discussed with me by S.A.D.F. officials, Cape Town and Pretoria, February and March 1979.
3 Windhoek Observer, 19 July 1980, p. 6.
4 Seiler, John, ‘South African Perspectives and Responses to External Pressures’, in The Journal of Modern African Studies (Cambridge), 13, 3, 09 1975, especially pp. 449–51;Google ScholarLelyveld, Joseph, ‘Afrikaners Mood: girding for Soviet “Onslaught”’, in The New York Times, 8 02 1982, p. A6.Google Scholar The essence of the Afrikaner world-view is captured brilliantly in Coetzee's, J. M. allegorical novel, Waiting for the Barbarians (New York, 1982).Google Scholar
1 Seiler, John, ‘South Africa: a government against the world’, in Africa Report, 09–10 1979, pp. 9–15;–Google Scholar S.A.B.C., ‘Comment’, 14 April 1982; and South African Digest, 28 May 1982, p. 2, for a report in the Pretoria News of 21 May 1982 of a lecture by Kenneth W. Grundy with similar conclusions.
2 For Brand Fourie's views, see Financial Mail, 30 October 1981, especially pp. 526–7; S.A.B.C., ‘Comment’, 22 June and July 1982; and Institute of Strategic Studies Bulletin (Pretoria), 4, 1982, reported in South African Digest, 9 July 1982, p. 10.Google Scholar See also analyses by Sparks, Allister, ‘The White Man's Last Delusion’, in The Observer, 30 08 1981, p. 8;Google ScholarLelyveld, Joseph, ‘Pretoria Chooses Among Cloaks and Daggers’, in The New York Times, 13 December 1981, ‘Week in Review’, p. E5; and Richard F. Weisfelder, ‘South Africa's “Total Strategy”: a formula for regional destabilization?’, International Studies Association Annual Conference, Cincinnati, March 1982.Google Scholar
1 See Botha, Pik to House of Assembly, 6 May 1982, in South African Digest, 21 May 1982, pp. 9–10.Google Scholar
2 Interviews, Pretoria, January–04 1979; Financial Mail, 9 October 1981, p. 174; and McHenry testimony, ‘U.S. Policy Toward Namibia: Spring 1981’, p. 21.
3 For background on the caucus, see Giliomee, Hermann, ‘Afrikaner Politics: how the system works’, in Adam, Heribert and Giliomee, , Ethnic Power Mobilized: can South Africa Change? (New Haven, 1979).Google Scholar
1 Interviews, New York, November 1980.
2 Financial Mail, 12 February 1982, pp. 659–60, refers to an article from Die Vaderland (Johannesburg).
3 Botha's, Pik S.A.B.C. interview, 28 February 1982, International English Service (Foreign Broadcast Information Service, 5 March 1982); Magnus Malan to House of Assembly, 23 April 1982, in South African Digest, 30 April 1982, p. 5; S.A.B.C., ‘Comment’, 18 June and 17 September 1982, and ‘News Commentary’, 2 July 1982.Google Scholar
1 Interviews, Pretoria, March 1979, and New York, April 1979; Fleur d. Villiers, ‘The Intrigue and Deceit that Sank a Deal’, in Sunday Times, 4 March 1979, p. 2; and Ken Owen, ‘Don't Get Mad, Get Even’, in Ibid. 18 March 1979, p. 15.
2 S.A.B.C., ‘News Commentary’, 3 June 1981; and Financial Mail, 5 June 1981, p. 1131.
3 See testimony, McHenry's, ‘U.S. Policy Toward Namibia: Spring 1981’, pp. 23–4.Google Scholar
4 For an especially interesting analysis of the South African style of negotiation, see ‘Conflict in the South’, from Zartman, I. William, Ripe for Resolution: conflict and intervention in Africa (New Haven, forthcoming).Google Scholar Also useful are interpretations by Pisani, André du, ‘Namibia: on brinkmanship, conflict and self-interest the collapse of the UN plan’, in Politikon (Pretoria), 8, 1, 06 1981, pp. 1–14,Google Scholar and his ‘Namibia: the search for alternatives’, in South Africa International, 12, 1, 07 1981, pp. 292–302;Google ScholarRotberg, Robert I., ‘Why Namibia Matters’, in African Index (Washington, D.C.), 22 01 1982;Google ScholarSinclair, Michael, ‘Namibian Constitutional Proposals: the fleeting options and implications for South Africa’, in South Africa International, 12, 4, 04 1982, pp. 508–16;Google ScholarLelyveld, Joseph, ‘Is it Pretense or Progress on Namibia?’, in The New York Times, 31 01 1982, ‘Week in Review’, p. E5;Google Scholar and D'Oliveira, John, ‘P. W. Botha's “Window of Opportunity”’, in African Index, 22 03 1982.Google Scholar
1 Seiler, , ‘Has Constructive Engagement Died?’, and ‘Has Constructive Engagement Failed?’Google Scholar
2 See Magnus Malan to the House of Assembly, reported in Financial Mail, 23 October 1981, pp. 409–10; S.A.B.C., ‘Comment’, 23–4 and 29 March 1982, 1 and 15 July 1982; Patrick Laurence, ‘South African Generals Fear Terrorist War’, in The Guardian, 30 August 1981, p. 8; ‘Reds Under the Veldt’, editorial in The Observer, 6 September 1981, p. 10; Joseph Lelyveld, ‘South African Defense Chief:zealot or pragmatist?’, in The New York Times, 7 September 1981, p. A2. In addition to radio and television coverage and editorials favourable to the S.A.D.F. rôle in Namibia, the media carry music and message programmes for ‘The Boys on the Border’ which promote this attitude. There are also ‘coffee-table’ books: Stefan Sonderling's Die Weermagle Aksie (also available in English as Bushwar) contains action photographs of S.A.D.F. troops in combat and on patrol in the operational area, and was mentioned as ‘a choice gift for any national serviceman’ by the Windhoek Observer, albeit a strong critic of South African policy in Namibia!
3 Villiers, Fleur d., ‘How Broedertwis Could Lead to the de Gaulle Option’, in African Index, 22 03 1982.Google Scholar