One of the main conclusions of this commentary is that the Real
plan
– the stabilisation programme introduced in Brazil in July 1994 which
was quite
successful in bringing inflation down from the extremely high levels that
prevailed before that period – did not attack the main cause of the
country's
inflation, that is, the large financial imbalance in the public sector.
Instead,
inflation was reduced in an indirect way, by freezing government-controlled
prices and wages. In mid-1998, the programme still relies on extremely
high
interest rates and a tight control of the exchange rate. The main weakness
of the
plan is that, with the overvalued currency, trade deficits are accumulating.
Also,
very high interest rates have brought the economy to a halt and caused
a sharp
increase in the government debt.