Initial Public Offers (IPOs) made on the Stock Exchange of Singapore routinely provide sufficiently detailed data to allow reconstruction of both the application and allocation schedules. We show that large investors tend to preferentially request participation in IPOs with higher initial returns, consistent with these investors being better informed. We also show that inferences based exclusively on application strategies are quite different from those drawn on investor allocations. Our results suggest that caution is necessary in assessing the relative merit of competing explanations for IPO underpricing where the underlying demand is not identified.

This paper obtains equilibrium interest rate option prices for discontinuous short-term interest rate processes. The prices are first obtained for a general distribution of jump sizes using a process with a number of fixed size jumps. The pricing formulas are then used to obtain option prices when the jump distribution is known to be one of the continuous distributions. The commonly used jump-diffusion, stochastic volatility jump-diffusion, and Gamma process option prices can be obtained as limiting cases. The methodology is also applied to obtain the prices of options on stocks. Finally, the paper shows how portfolios to hedge derivative securities can be built.

This paper provides an explanation for the widespread use of traditional securities by well-established firms. Standard moral hazard models predict that equity, debt, and warrants are almost never optimal financing instruments. I show that issuing these securities is, nevertheless, nearly optimal: the issuer would gain very little by using non-traditional securities instead. Combined with equity, one debt issue (without multiple layers of seniority) and one warrant issue (without multiple exercise prices) suffice to achieve near optimality. The near optimality of traditional financing depends crucially on the issuer's ability to use warrants in addition to debt and equity.

Recent research shows that emerging markets are distinguished by high returns and low covariances with global market factors. To check whether these results can be attributed to their recent emergence, we simulate a simple, general model of global markets with a realistic survival process. The simulations reveal a number of new effects. We find that pre-emergence returns are systematically lower than post-emergence returns, and that the brevity of a market history is related to the bias in returns as well as to the world beta. These patterns are confirmed by an empirical analysis of emerging and submerged markets.

This study examines the kinds of events that cause large shifts in the volatility of emerging stock markets. We first determine when large changes in the volatility of emerging stock market returns occur and then examine global and local events (social, political, and economic) during the periods of increased volatility. An iterated cumulative sums of squares (ICSS) algorithm is used to identify the points of shocks/sudden changes in the variance of returns in each market and how long the shift lasts. Both increases and decreases in the variance are identified. We then identify events around the time period when shifts in volatility occur. Most events tend to be local and include the Mexican peso crisis, periods of hyperinflation in Latin America, the Marcos-Aquino conflict in the Philippines, and the stock market scandal in India. The October 1987 crash is the only global event during the period 1985–1995 that caused a significant jump in the volatility of several emerging stock markets.

Prior studies have reported a positive correlation between insider trading and stock price changes implying that insider (i.e., informed) trades affect price discovery differently than non-insider (i.e., uninformed) trades. Based on these results, various scholars have argued for the legalization of insider trading to facilitate rapid price discovery. We analyze the trading activity of a confessed inside trader, Ivan Boesky, in Carnation's stock just prior to Nestle's 1984 acquisition of Carnation, and find that our tests are unable to distinguish the price effect of Boesky's (i.e., informed) purchases of Carnation's stock from the effect of non-insider (i.e., uninformed) purchases. Our conclusion survives extensive robustness tests and has methodological and public policy implications.

Samuelson called accepting a sequence of independent positive mean bets that are individually unacceptable a fallacy of large numbers, and subsequent researchers have extended Samuelson's condition on utility functions to assure that they would not allow this fallacy. By contrast, some behavioralists, arguing the merits of diversification, believe that it is simply wrong headed to refuse a long series of independent “good” bets out of a misguided faith in expected utility theory. Contrary to what one might infer from the literature, this paper shows that accepting sequences of good bets is both consistent with expected utility theory and quite usual.

This paper develops an equilibrium asset pricing model to explain the equity premium puzzle and the risk-free rate puzzle by allowing for both market frictions and informational asymmetry. The paper argues that much of the high equity premium in the Mehra and Prescott (1985).sample period can be explained by informational asymmetry among investors and the inability of many investors to diversify their portfolios. With admissible relative risk aversion coefficient γ, the model matches various key statistics quite well. The paper implies that with the development of mutual funds, the equity premium should decline as has been the case since the 1950s.

It is now widely held that stock prices are too volatile to be optimal forecasts of future dividends discounted at a constant rate. Using the present value model with a constant discount rate, we show that when there is memory in the duration of dividend swings, the stock price can move in a more volatile fashion than could be warranted by future dividend movements. The memory in the duration of a dividend swing will lead economic agents to time the swing, thereby generating a spurious bias in the stock price. When memory is strong, this spurious bias becomes significant and induces excess volatility in the stock price as if rational bubbles exist. The Efficient Method of Moments (EMM) procedure is used to examine the long swings property in the dividend series. We cannot reject the hypothesis of a strong memory in the dividend swings, and show that excess volatility, even in large samples, can be generated through simulation.

In the context of dual trading restrictions, we examine whether aggregate liquidity measures are appropriate indicators of trader welfare in multiple dealer markets. Consistent with our theoretical results, we show empirically that dual trading restrictions did not affect market liquidity significantly, but dual traders of above average skills may have quit brokerage and switched to trading exclusively for their own accounts following restrictions. Further, customers of these dual traders had lower trading costs in the period before restrictions relative to the trading costs of all customers after restrictions.

We present a new methodology for estimating time-varying conditional skewness. Our model allows for changing means and variances, uses a maximum likelihood framework with instruments, and assumes a non-central t distribution. We apply this method to daily, weekly, and monthly stock returns, and find that conditional skewness is important. In particular, we show that the evidence of asymmetric variance is consistent with conditional skewness. Inclusion of conditional skewness also impacts the persistence in conditional variance.

An extensive empirical literature in finance has documented not only the presence of anomalies in the Black-Scholes model, but also the term structures of these anomalies (for instance, the behavior of the volatility smile or of unconditional returns at different maturities). Theoretical efforts in the literature at addressing these anomalies have largely focused on two extensions of the Black-Scholes model: introducing jumps into the return process, and allowing volatility to be stochastic. We employ commonly used versions of these two classes of models to examine the extent to which the models are theoretically capable of resolving the observed anomalies. We find that each model exhibits some term structure patterns that are fundamentally inconsistent with those observed in the data. As a consequence, neither class of models constitutes an adequate explanation of the empirical evidence, although stochastic volatility models fare somewhat better than jumps.

This paper examines the pricing of lookback and barrier options when the underlying asset follows the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) process. We construct a trinomial method to approximate the CEV process and use it to price lookback and barrier options. For look-back options, we find that the technique proposed by Babbs for the lognormal case can be modified to value lookbacks when the asset price follows the CEV process. We demonstrate the accuracy of our approach for different parameter values of the CEV process. We find that the prices of barrier and lookback options for the CEV process deviate significantly from those for the lognormal process. For standard options, the corresponding differences between the CEV and Black-Scholes models are relatively small. Our results show that it is much more important to have the correct model specification for options that depend on extrema than for standard options.

This study provides evidence that differential interpretations are an important stimulus for speculative trading. We measure differential interpretations using data on analysts' revisions of forecasts of annual earnings after the announcement of quarterly earnings that are components of those annual earnings numbers. We find two conditions under which differential interpretations play a significant role in explaining trading. First, we present empirical evidence supporting Kandel and Pearson's (1995) argument that trading coincident with small price changes reflects investors' differential interpretations of information. This evidence is important because it is inconsistent with conventional models of trade that assume homogeneous interpretations. Second, we also find that differential interpretations explain a significant amount of the trading occurring in a sample where trading volume is higher than the (firm-specific) non-announcement period average. This result is consistent with informed traders acting on their differential interpretations when there is enough liquidity trading to help camouflage their own information-based trades. In sum, the study's results confirm Bachelier's (1900) intuition that differential interpretations are an important stimulus for trading.

This paper provides a theoretical rebalancing benchmark for trading volume that delivers a connection between trading activity in individual stocks and market-wide volume. This model supports the empirical use of an adjustment for market-wide trading activity when filtering out normal trading volume. Data on a sample of large NYSE/AMEX firms support the usefulness of the benchmark. While 20% of the sample firms exhibit trading behavior that is consistent with the cross-sectional prediction of the rebalancing benchmark, systematic deviations exist. An analysis of deviations from the benchmark allows a characterization of anomalous trading activity. I find that average excess turnover vs. the benchmark is positively related to option availability and institutional ownership and negatively related to firm size. The data do not yield a uniform conclusion on the effect of S&P 500 inclusion. S&P 500 inclusion does not significantly increase the trading of firms that are already trading above benchmark levels, but does result in additional trading for firms that undertrade the benchmark prior to inclusion. An investigation of individual firm market model regressions indicates that this is a useful methodology for filtering out the anomalous trading documented here.

We study the impact of barriers to international capital flows with stock price data from 11 countries whose stock markets feature shares restricted to locals and otherwise identical shares available to foreigners. Large price premiums for unrestricted shares relative to matching restricted shares are typically observed. Although basic notions of international asset pricing offer a straightforward explanation for the price premiums, we find little evidence that the price premiums are explained by lower foreign required returns. Alternative concepts and theories centering on foreign investor demand and the supply of shares explain some of the time-series and cross-sectional variation of price premiums. More specifically, premiums for unrestricted shares are positively correlated with foreign investor demand in the form of international mutual fund flows, sentiment implicit in matching closed-end country fund premiums, market liquidity, and information reflected in press coverage, country credit rating, and firm size.

This paper reexamines a familiar but unsettling result in the foreign exchange literature: that the forward rate is not an unbiased predictor of the future spot rate. The paper outlines why some frequently used tests of unbiasedness are non-informative in the sense that they are incapable of correctly testing the hypothesis. Specifically, many of these tests are based on regressions that suffer from simultaneity bias, resulting in biased and inconsistent estimators. This is true whether the tests are conducted using stationary or non-stationary data. We demonstrate this point both analytically and with simulations. Tests of co-integration, which are not subject to the critique presented in the paper, generally fail to reject unbiasedness.

This paper provides the solution to an intertemporal investment problem. The investor has power utility and can invest in stocks and bonds in a complete market setting where the Vasicek term structure model applies. The paper demonstrates that the zero-coupon bond with maturity at the investment horizon is the appropriate instrument for hedging changes in the opportunity set. Implementation issues are discussed and it is shown how the intertemporal investment problem can be recast as a series of mean-variance problems in terms of drift and volatility of the wealth forward price. An application based on a quasi-dynamic programming approach is considered.

We present a subclass of Langetieg's (1980).linear Gaussian models of the term structure. The bond price is derived in terms of a finite set of state variables with correlated innovations. The subclass contains a reformulation of the double-decay model of Beaglehole and Tenney (1991), enabling us to clarify interpretation of their parameters. We apply Kalman filtering to a state space formulation of the model, allowing measurement errors in the data. One-, two-, and three-factor models are estimated on U.S. data from 1987–1996 and the results indicate the subclass of models can fit the U.S. term structure.

Trade execution costs remain larger on NASDAQ compared to the NYSE in the wake of new SEC-mandated order-handling rules and reductions in tick sizes, but the differential across markets is smaller than in earlier years. Cross-sectional regression analysis indicates that the differences in average trade execution costs are not explained by variation in observable economic factors. Quotations on both markets continue to cluster disproportionately on round fractions, and more so on NASDAQ than the NYSE, but quotation rounding appears not to be responsible for the greater NASDAQ execution costs. Preferencing agreements are highlighted as a likely reason that NASDAQ trade execution costs remain larger.