We study the investment–cash flow sensitivities of U.S. firms from 1971–2009. Our tests extend the literature in several key ways and provide strong evidence that cash flow explains investment beyond its correlation with q. A dollar of current- and prior-year cash flow is associated with $0.32 of additional investment for firms that are the least likely to be constrained and $0.63 of additional investment for firms that are the most likely to be constrained, even after correcting for measurement error in q. Our results suggest that financing constraints and free-cash-flow problems are important for investment decisions.

We analyze lending by traditional as well as fintech lenders during COVID-19. Comparing samples of fintech and bank loan records across the outbreak, we find that fintech companies are more likely to expand credit access to new and financially constrained borrowers after the start of the pandemic. However, this increased credit provision may not be sustainable; the delinquency rate of fintech loans triples after the outbreak, but there is no significant change in the delinquency of bank loans. Borrowers holding both loan types prioritize the payment of bank loans. These results shed light on the benefits provided by shadow banking in a crisis and hint at the potential fragility of such institutions when delinquency rates spike.

The asset and liability portfolios of financial institutions generate patterns of future cash flows that must conform to many restrictions in order to assure solvency and profitability. Many institutions, including insurance companies and pension funds, have definite and certain future commitments of funds. These institutions may wish to invest funds now so that their cash inflows (investment with accumulated earnings) will match their future commitments. In principle, the simplest way to meet future commitments exactly is to purchase single payment notes (or zero coupon bonds) which mature on the commitment dates. For long-term commitments, such instruments are not readily obtainable, at least in the United States. Most available bonds promise coupon payments over time so that these payments would have to be reinvested at unknown future interest rates in order to realize an accumulated sum at any future date when a commitment must be discharged. Since future interest rates are unknown at the initial moment of investment, it is not certain what accumulated earnings will be at future dates. In the absence of default, the risk of not meeting future commitments may be minimized by adopting investment strategies based on the concept of duration. Duration is a measure of the average maturity of an income stream; it is a weighted average of the dates at which the income payments are received, where the weights add to unity and are related to the present value of the income stream. Dating from the initial work of Macaulay [9] and Hicks [6], duration has been shown to be important in constructing portfolios that are hedged or ‘immunized’ from the possible ravages of interest rate uncertainty.

Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are frequently thought of as risk-free real bonds. Using no-arbitrage term structure models, we show that TIPS yields exceeded risk-free real yields by as much as 100 basis points when TIPS were first issued and up to 300 basis points during the 2007–2008 financial crisis. This spread predominantly reflects the poorer liquidity of TIPS relative to nominal Treasury securities. Other factors, including the indexation lag and the embedded deflation protection in TIPS, play a much smaller role. Ignoring this spread also significantly distorts the informational content of TIPS break-even inflation, a widely used proxy for expected inflation.

The normative theory of portfolio selection has, since Markowitz, proceeded for the most part on the assumption that there are no costs of transacting in securities markets. Exceptions to this generalization are the work of Pogue who proposes a quadratic programming solution to the portfolio selection problem with variable transactions costs, and, in a multiperiod context, the ad hoc portfolio revision models of Smith, and the more rigorous, though computationally burdensome dynamic programming models of Chen et al. All of these models focus exclusively on the variable costs of transacting. Mao deals implicitly with the fixed costs of purchasing securities and the limited diversification which these will imply. However, his model both lacks an explicit optimization criterion for determining the number of securities to include in the portfolio and assumes a homogeneous security universe; this latter assumption is relaxed when he later considers the problem of which securities should be included in the portfolio. Clearly an ideal solution to the problem must consider simultaneously both how many and which securities to include. More recently, Jacob has developed some simplified models for selecting optimal portfolios, given a constraint on the number of securities which may be included in the portfolio. While her models are superior to Mao's in taking account of the residual risk of the securities as well as their systematic risk, they do not contain any explicit procedure for determining the optimal number of securities to include in the portfolio.

We study the intraday behavior of bid-ask spreads for actively traded CBOE options and for their NYSE-traded underlying stocks. We confirm previous findings that stocks have a U-shaped spread pattern; however, the options display a very different intraday pattern—one that declines sharply after the open, and then levels off. Our results suggest that both the degree of competition in market making and the extent of informed trading are important for understanding the intraday behavior of spreads.

This study investigates the impact of personal taxation on corporate managers' choices between share repurchases and dividends as a means of disbursing cash. Consistent with the notion that personal taxation influences the choice of disbursement method, we find that managers are more likely to choose a share repurchase if the firm has a low dividend yield, if the firm's stock has experienced losses or small recent capital gains, and if the payout occured before the Tax Reform Act of 1986. Further, managers are more sensitive to the shareholders' tax situations if institutional investors hold a large fraction of the shares.

Unequal costs of obtaining and processing information may lead to trading of securities and wealth redistributions among investors. Those investors with easy access to information about a firm may be able to profit from prior knowledge of the information before public release. Public policy making bodies such as the SEC have attempted to alleviate this phenomenon by promoting public disclosure of information through litigation and regulation of the trading activities of insiders. Whether these procedures have been successful in curtailing trading due to privileged information is still open to debate. Academicians have also been concerned with resolving the existence of asymmetrically distributed information and “efficient markets.” In spite of the social and academic importance of this phenomenon, there has been little empirical work in this area. This is primarily due to a lack of a testable theoretical framework explaining investor behavior in securities markets with asymmetric information distribution. The ensuing paper provides a tentative testable theory on trading in markets with asymmetrically distributed information as well as an empirical investigation of this theory.

In a recently published paper, Edmans, García, and Norli (2007) reveal a strong association between results of soccer games and local stock returns. Inspired by their work, we propose a novel approach to exploit this effect on the aggregate international level with the following three unique features: i) The aggregate effect does not depend on the games’ results; hence, the effect is an exploitable predictable effect. ii) The aggregate effect is based on many games; hence, it is very large and highly significant. We find that the average return on the U.S. market over the World Cup’s effect period is – 2.58%, compared to +1.21% for all-days average returns over the same period length. iii) Exploiting the aggregate effect is involved with trading in a single index for a relatively long period.

Most portfolio analysis is based on the use of two parameters, the mean and variance, of the statistical distribution of returns. Exceptions to this practice can be found in an empirical work by Arditti [1] and a theoretical paper by Levy [4], both using the third moment around the mean. It is the purpose of this paper to begin a general extension of the two-parameter analysis to three or more parameters. Accordingly, some problems will be solved, but others will be suggested for further analysis.

This paper examines the impact of the “Heard-on-the-Street” (HOTS) column of The Wall Street Journal on common stock prices. The results of the study indicate that the HOTS column appears to have an impact on stock prices on the publication day; however, we also find a smaller, but statistically significant, impact on two days preceding the publication. The significant abnormal returns on these days are associated with higher trading volume. The reaction of stock prices is symmetric with respect to the buy and sell recommendations, and the impact of single-company recommendations is greater than the impact of the multi-company recommendations.

This paper provides a theoretical rebalancing benchmark for trading volume that delivers a connection between trading activity in individual stocks and market-wide volume. This model supports the empirical use of an adjustment for market-wide trading activity when filtering out normal trading volume. Data on a sample of large NYSE/AMEX firms support the usefulness of the benchmark. While 20% of the sample firms exhibit trading behavior that is consistent with the cross-sectional prediction of the rebalancing benchmark, systematic deviations exist. An analysis of deviations from the benchmark allows a characterization of anomalous trading activity. I find that average excess turnover vs. the benchmark is positively related to option availability and institutional ownership and negatively related to firm size. The data do not yield a uniform conclusion on the effect of S&P 500 inclusion. S&P 500 inclusion does not significantly increase the trading of firms that are already trading above benchmark levels, but does result in additional trading for firms that undertrade the benchmark prior to inclusion. An investigation of individual firm market model regressions indicates that this is a useful methodology for filtering out the anomalous trading documented here.

We find evidence that conflicts of interest arising from mergers and acquisitions (M&A) relations influence analysts' recommendations, corroborating regulators' and practitioners' suspicions in a setting, i.e., M&A relations, not previously examined in research on analyst conflicts. In addition, the M&A context allows us to disentangle the conflict of interest effect from selection bias. We find that analysts affiliated with acquirer advisors upgrade acquirer stocks around M&A deals, even around all-cash deals, in which selection bias is unlikely. Also consistent with conflict of interest but not selection bias, target-affiliated analysts publish optimistic reports about acquirers after, but not before, the exchange ratio of an all-stock deal is set.

Recent evidence indicates that momentum profits are sensitive to market conditions. We find that the profits are higher when the markets continue in the same state than when they transition to a different state. These findings support Daniel, Hirshleifer, and Subrahmanyam (1998), who suggest that investor overconfidence is higher when the markets continue in the same state (UP or DOWN) than when they reverse, predicting higher momentum profits in the former. In contrast, our evidence following DOWN markets is not consistent with the other competing models for the market-state conditional momentum profits.

Little evidence exists on whether boards help managers make better decisions. We provide evidence that strong and independent boards help overconfident chief executive officers (CEOs) avoid honest mistakes when they seek to acquire other companies. In addition, we find that once-overconfident CEOs make better acquisition decisions after they experience personal stock trading losses, providing evidence that a manager’s recent personal experience, and not just educational and early career experience, influences firm investment policy. Finally, we develop and validate a new CEO overconfidence measure that is easily constructed from machine-readable insider trading data, unlike previously used measures.

We investigate the long-term effect of the Asian financial crisis on corporate cash holdings in 8 East Asian countries. The Asian firms build up cash holdings by decreasing investment activities after the crisis. We find that the increase in cash holdings is not explained by changes in firm characteristics but by changes in the firms’ demand function for cash, which indicates that the crisis has systematically changed the firms’ cash-holding policies. Specifically, the firms’ increased sensitivity to cash flow volatility is one of the main factors explaining the higher level of their cash holdings in the postcrisis period.

We use a new identification strategy to assess whether an intensification of competition among banks increases or decreases the provision of a key banking service: liquidity creation. Although theory offers conflicting predictions about the impact of competition on liquidity creation, we find that regulatory-induced competition reduces liquidity creation. Consistent with a subset of models emphasizing that banks pushed toward insolvency reduce risk-taking activities, we discover that regulatory-induced competition reduces liquidity creation more among banks with less risk-absorbing capacity (e.g., less profitable banks).

Stock price discreteness adds noise to price series. The noise increases return variances and adds negative serial correlation to return series. Standard variance and serial covariance estimators therefore overestimate the variance and serial covariance of the underlying stock values. Discreteness-induced variance and serial covariance depend on underlying volatility and on the size of the bid/ask spread. Simple formulas for approximating the effects of discreteness on variance and serial correlation are derived and presented. The approximations, which are accurate in daily data, can be used to adjust the standard variance and serial covariance estimators.

This article provides evidence that equity returns lead credit protection returns at daily and weekly frequencies, whereas credit protection returns do not lead equity returns. Our results indicate that informed traders are primarily active in the equity market rather than the credit default swap (CDS) market. These findings are consistent with standard theories of market selection by informed traders in which market selection is determined partially by transaction costs. We also find that credit protection returns respond more quickly during salient news events (earnings announcements) compared to days with similar equity returns and turnover. This evidence provides support for explanations related to investor inattention.

Since the first owner of a gold depository discovered that profits could be made by lending some of the gold deposited for safekeeping, there has been a concern for the “capital adequacy” of depository institutions. The idea is simple enough. If the value of an institution's assets may decline in the future, its deposits will generally be safer, the larger the current value of assets in relation to the value of deposits. Defining capital as the difference between assets and deposits, the larger the ratio of capital to assets (or the ratio of capital to deposits) the safer the deposits. At some level capital will be “adequate,” i. e., the deposits will be “safe enough.”