Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-v9fdk Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-09T16:14:38.010Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Portfolio Selection: The Effects of Uncertain Means, Variances, and Covariances

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  19 October 2009

Extract

Present models for selecting portfolios according to the mean-variance criteria do not account for the simultaneous effect of error in estimating means, variances, and covariances of security returns. This paper describes an experiment in which the impact of estimation error is so strong that the usefulness of present mean-variance approaches to portfolio selection is brought into question.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © School of Business Administration, University of Washington 1971

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

[1]Alderfer, Clayton P., and Bierman, Harold Jr.Choices with Risk: Beyond the Mean and Variance.” Journal of Business, 43, July 1970, pp. 341353.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[2]Fried, Joel. “Forecasting and Probability Distributions for Models of Portfolio Selection.” Journal of Finance, 25, June 1970, pp. 539554.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[3]Kalymon, Basil A.Estimation Risk in the Portfolio Selection Model.” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 4, January 1971, pp. 559582.Google Scholar
[4]Levy, Haim, and Sarnat, Marshall. “Alternative Efficiency Criteria: An Empirical Analysis.” Journal of Finance, 25, December 1970, pp. 11531158. 1158.Google Scholar
[5]Mao, James C.T., and Särndal, Carl Erik. “A Decision Theory Approach to Portfolio Selection.” Management Science, 12, April 1966, pp. 323333.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[6]Markowitz, Harry M.Portfolio Selection.” Journal of Finance, 1, March 1952, pp. 7791.Google Scholar
[7]Mood, Alexander, and Graybill, Franklyn. Introduction to the Theory of Statistics. New York: McGraw-Hill Book Company, Inc., 1963.Google Scholar
[8]Phillips, Herbert E., and Seagle, John P.. “Posterior Variance Estimation in Bayesian Decision Making.” Working Paper Series No. 90, School of Management, State University of New York at Buffalo, November 1970.Google Scholar
[9]Pratt, John W.Risk Aversion in the Small and in the Large.” Econometrica, 32, January–April 1964, pp. 122136.Google Scholar
[10]Sharpe, William F.A Simplified Model for Portfolio Analysis.” Management Science, 9, January 1963, pp. 277293.Google Scholar
[11]Tobin, James. “Liquidity Preference as Behavior Towards Risk.” Review of Economics and Statistics, 25, February 1958, pp. 6586.Google Scholar