Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-dlnhk Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-23T17:06:50.068Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

How Do Cash Windfalls Affect Entrepreneurship? Evidence from the Spanish Christmas Lottery

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 June 2024

Vicente J. Bermejo
Affiliation:
Ramon Llull University ESADE Business School [email protected]
Miguel A. Ferreira
Affiliation:
Universidade Nova de Lisboa Nova School of Business and Economics CEPR and ECGI [email protected]
Daniel Wolfenzon
Affiliation:
Columbia University Columbia Business School and NBER [email protected]
Rafael Zambrana*
Affiliation:
University of Notre Dame Mendoza College of Business
*
[email protected] (corresponding author)
Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Core share and HTML view are not available for this content. However, as you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.

We show cash windfalls affect the real economy by spurring entrepreneurship. We identify these effects using the Spanish Christmas Lottery, which provides a unique setting as prizes are geographically concentrated and distributed among thousands of households. We find higher start-up entry, job creation, and self-employment in winning regions. Consistent with a financial constraints channel, results are strongest in sectors relying on external finance and regions with limited credit access. Newly created firms are larger, more profitable, and survive longer. For existing firms, however, growth and profitability do not respond to lottery awards, but wages increase due to tighter labor markets.

Type
Research Article
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BY
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2024. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the Michael G. Foster School of Business, University of Washington

Footnotes

We are grateful to Jarrad Harford (the editor) and an anonymous referee for their assistance in improving the manuscript through a highly constructive review process. We also thank Diana Bonfim, Laura Crespo, Joan Farre-Mensa, Xavier Freixas, Sergio Garcia, Pedro Gete, Jessica Jeffers, Gustavo Manso, William Mullins, Jose-Luis Peydro, Rafael Repullo, Martin Schmalz, Felipe Silva, Lea Stern, and Su Wang; participants at the 2019 Conference in Financial Economic Research-IDC Herzliya, 2020 Corporate Finance Webinar, 2018 Econometric Society European Winter Meeting, 2019 European Finance Association Annual Meeting, 2019 Financial Intermediation Research Society Conference, 2018 HEC Paris Workshop on Entrepreneurship, 2017 Mitsui Symposium on Comparative Corporate Governance and Globalization, 2018 Northern Finance Association Conference, 2019 Simposio de la Asociacion Espanola de Economia (SAEe), and 2019 Spanish Finance Forum; and seminar participants at CEMFI, ESADE Business School, London Business School, Nova School of Business and Economics, Pompeu Fabra University, University of Alicante, University of Notre Dame, University of Vienna, and University of Zurich for helpful comments. Bermejo acknowledges financial support from Banc Sabadell and the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation, and Universities under PGC2018-099700- A-100. Ferreira holds the BPI – Fundação “la Caixa” Chair in Responsible Finance, is an independent board member at BPI Asset Management, and acknowledges financial support from the Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia. All errors are our own.

References

Adelino, M.; Ma, S.; and Robinson, D.. “Firm Age, Investment Opportunities, and Job Creation.” Journal of Finance, 72 (2017), 9991038.Google Scholar
Adelino, M.; Schoar, A.; and Severino, F.. “House Prices, Collateral, and Self-Employment.” Journal of Financial Economics, 117 (2015), 288306.Google Scholar
Andersen, S., and Nielsen, K.. “Ability or Finances as Constraints on Entrepreneurship? Evidence from Survival Rates in a Natural Experiment.” Review of Financial Studies, 25 (2012), 36843710.Google Scholar
Bagues, M., and Esteve-Volart, B.. “Politicians’ Luck of the Draw: Evidence from the Spanish Christmas Lottery.” Journal of Political Economy, 124 (2016), 12691294.Google Scholar
Bellon, A.; Cookson, J.; Gilje, E.; and Heimer, R.. “Personal Wealth, Self-Employment, and Business Ownership.” Review of Financial Studies, 34 (2021), 39353975.Google Scholar
Bentolila, S.; Jansen, M.; and Jiménez, G.. “When Credit Dries Up: Job Losses in the Great Recession.” Journal of the European Economic Association, 16 (2018), 650695.Google Scholar
Bernstein, S.; Colonnelli, E.; Malacrino, D.; and McQuade, T.. “Who Creates New Firms when Local Opportunities Arise?Journal of Financial Economics, 143 (2022), 107130.Google Scholar
Bilbiie, F.; Ghironi, F.; and Melitz, M.. “Endogenous Entry, Product Variety, and Business Cycles.” Journal of Political Economy, 120 (2012), 304345.Google Scholar
Brown, J.; Cookson, J.; and Heimer, R.. “Law and Finance Matter: Lessons from Externally Imposed Courts.” Review of Financial Studies, 30 (2017), 10191051.Google Scholar
Brunnermeier, M., and Nagel, S.. “Do Wealth Fluctuations Generate Time-Varying Risk Aversion? Micro-Evidence on Individuals.” American Economic Review, 98 (2008), 713736.Google Scholar
Busso, M.; Gregory, J.; and Kline, P.. “Assessing the Incidence and Efficiency of a Prominent Place Based Policy.” American Economic Review, 103 (2013), 897947.Google Scholar
Calvet, L.; Campbell, J.; and Sodini, P.. “Down or Out: Assessing the Welfare Costs of Household Investment Mistakes.” Journal of Political Economy, 115 (2007), 707747.Google Scholar
Cesarini, D.; Lindqvist, E.; Notowidigdo, M.; and Ostling, R.. “The Effect of Wealth on Individual and Household Labor Supply: Evidence from Swedish Lotteries.” American Economic Review, 107 (2017), 39173946.Google Scholar
Cespedes, J.; Huang, X.; and Parra, C.. “More Money, More Options? The Effect of Cash Windfalls on Entrepreneurial Activities in Small Businesses.” Working Paper, University of Minnesota (2021).Google Scholar
Chiappori, P., and Paiella, M.. “Relative Risk Aversion Is Constant: Evidence from Panel Data.” Journal of the European Economic Association, 9 (2011), 10211052.Google Scholar
Clementi, G., and Palazzo, B.. “Entry, Exit, Firm Dynamics, and Aggregate Fluctuations.” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 8 (2016), 141.Google Scholar
Criscuolo, C.; Martin, R.; Overman, H.; and Van Reenen, J.. “Some Causal Effects of an Industrial Policy.” American Economic Review, 109 (2019), 4885.Google Scholar
Evans, D., and Jovanovic, B.. “An Estimated Model of Entrepreneurial Choice Under Liquidity Constraints.” Journal of Political Economy, 97 (1989), 808827.Google Scholar
Evans, D., and Leighton, L.. “Some Empirical Aspects of Entrepreneurship.” American Economic Review, 79 (1989), 519535.Google Scholar
Guiso, L.; Sapienza, P.; and Zingales, L.. “Does Local Financial Development Matter?Quarterly Journal of Economics, 119 (2004), 929969.Google Scholar
Hadlock, C., and Pierce, J.. “New Evidence on Measuring Financial Constraints: Moving Beyond the KZ Index.” Review of Financial Studies, 23 (2010), 19091940.Google Scholar
Haltiwanger, J.; Jarmin, R.; and Miranda, J.. “Who Creates Jobs? Small Versus Large Versus Young.” Review of Economics and Statistics, 95 (2013), 347361.Google Scholar
Hankins, S.; Hoekstra, M.; and Skiba, P.. “The Ticket to Easy Street? The Financial Consequences of Winning the Lottery.” Review of Economics and Statistics, 93 (2011), 961969.Google Scholar
Holtz-Eakin, D.; Joulfaian, D.; and Rosen, H.. “Sticking It Out: Entrepreneurial Survival and Liquidity Constraints.” Journal of Political Economy, 102 (1994), 5375.Google Scholar
Hurst, E., and Lusardi, A.. “Liquidity Constraints, Household Wealth, and Entrepreneurship.” Journal of Political Economy, 112 (2004), 319347.Google Scholar
Imbens, G.; Rubin, D.; and Sacerdote, B.. “Estimating the Effect of Unearned Income on Labor Earnings, Savings, and Consumption: Evidence from a Survey of Lottery Players.” American Economic Review, 91 (2001), 778794.Google Scholar
Kaplan, E., and Meier, P.. “Nonparametric Estimation from Incomplete Observations.” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 53 (1958), 457481.Google Scholar
Kent, C., and Martínez-Marquina, A.. “When a Town Wins the Lottery: Evidence from Spain.” Working Paper, Stanford University (2021).Google Scholar
King, R., and Levine, R.. “Finance, Entrepreneurship and Growth: Theory and Evidence.” Journal of Monetary Economics, 32 (1993), 513542.Google Scholar
Kline, P., and Moretti, E.. “Local Economic Development, Agglomeration Economies, and the Big Push: 100 Years of Evidence from the Tennessee Valley Authority.” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 129 (2014), 275331.Google Scholar
Koellinger, P., and Thurik, R.. “Entrepreneurship and the Business Cycle.” Review of Economics and Statistics, 94 (2012), 11431156.Google Scholar
Kuhn, P.; Kooreman, P.; Soetevent, A.; and Kapteyn, A.. “The Effects of Lottery Prizes on Winners and Their Neighbors: Evidence from the Dutch Postcode Lottery.” American Economic Review, 101 (2011), 22262247.Google Scholar
Lee, Y., and Mukoyama, T.. “Entry and Exit of Manufacturing Plants over the Business Cycle.” European Economic Review, 77 (2015), 2027.Google Scholar
Lindh, T., and Ohlsson, H.. “Self-Employment and Windfall Gains: Evidence from the Swedish Lottery.” Economic Journal, 106 (1996), 15151526.Google Scholar
Mian, A., and Sufi, A.. “What Explains the 2007–2009 Drop in Employment?”. Econometrica, 82 (2014), 21972223.Google Scholar
Schmalz, M.; Sraer, D.; and Thesmar, D.. “Housing Collateral and Entrepreneurship.” Journal of Finance, 72 (2017), 99132.Google Scholar
Sedláček, P., and Sterk, V.. “The Growth Potential of Startups over the Business Cycle.” American Economic Review, 107 (2017), 31823210.Google Scholar
Stock, J., and Yogo, M.. “Testing for Weak Instruments in Linear Iv Regression. Identification and Inference for Econometric Models.” Essays in Honor of Thomas Rothenberg, 80 (2005), 1.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: File

Bermejo et al. supplementary material

Bermejo et al. supplementary material
Download Bermejo et al. supplementary material(File)
File 387.3 KB