Analyses of the cultural factors supporting modernization and development have moved along a continuum from the clear-cut formulations of Parsons, Schumpeter, and Weber to the paradoxical assertions of contemporary scholars. The failure of countries like Argentina to achieve sustained development after spectacular starts has contributed to the confusion. This study examines two popular cultural explanations for such developmental problems, and finds them both wanting. Men-doza's experience suggests the need to adjust development programs to local cultural exigencies, rather than the reverse, as most analysts have argued. A four-part sequence to this effect is presented.

In several recently published works Richard A. Easterlin has shown that per capita incomes as measured in current dollars have tended to converge over time. In this paper the per capita income estimates have been adjusted for interregional differences in prices. In adjusting the regional per capita income estimates for interregional differences in both urban and rural-urban prices it was found that no significant differences occurred in either the levels of differences or in the rates of convergence from the original estimates. In addition, no significant correlation was found between interregional per capita incomes and price levels.

Our 2017 article in this Journal stresses the pitfalls of using choice-based samples in economic history. A prominent example is the literature addressing the so-called antebellum puzzle. Heights researchers claim that Americans grew shorter in the first half of the nineteenth century, a period of robust economic growth. We argue that this result relies on choice-based samples. Without knowing the process that led to inclusion in the sample, researchers cannot properly estimate conditional mean heights. We proposed a diagnostic that can detect, but not correct for, selection bias. Komlos and A’Hearn’s interpretation of our analysis confuses diagnosis with cure. We dispute their view that selection bias has been appreciated in the heights literature.

Throughout the second half of the nineteenth century and into the early part of the twentieth, American agriculture was expanding and improving under the influence of growing demand, the westward movement, mechanization of farm operations, and scientific farming developments. Under these influences, yields and labor productivity in field crops generally increased. Until recently, however, little has been known about the course of productivity change in specific agricultural activities during the nineteenth century. Dairy production was an important component of the American farm economy, accounting for about 16 percent of U.S. farm output at the beginning of the twentieth century and approximately 14 percent of gross income from farm production in 1910. Changes in dairy yields during the period 1850–1910 have been analyzed previously. The purpose of this article is to estimate labor input time, to measure the change in average labor productivity in U.S. dairy farming, and to examine the economic implications of this change, thus extending the analysis to another component of the dairy production function. The necessary data were estimated with techniques that utilized available fragmentary data in conjunction with information in literary material.

Britain's textile industry contracted sharply in the interwar period due to the growth of domestic industries in many of its export markets. Lazonick and Mass argue that, because this growth was inevitable, British entrepreneurs should not have focused on the less developed countries. This article questions whether the interwar growth of the Indian textile industry was inevitable. A quantitative study of Indian import demand and production techniques suggests that the rapid growth of the industry was due to exogenous events—postwar British inflation and change in the Indian political regime—rather than to the natural evolution of Indian productivity.

This article deals with agricultural innovation in early nineteenth-century France. The core of the argument advanced is that the diffusion of the new intensive mixed husbandry in northern France was delayed by the slow growth in demand for meat and dairy products before 1840, which reduced the advantages to be gained from adopting forage-intensive crop rotations. Because the climate of southern France precluded large-scale adoption of the northern varieties of mixed husbandry, this study confines itself to the part of France lying north of the Loire, and east of the Breton peninsula. This region contained 39 percent of France's people in 1840, raised 48 percent of its wheat and 64 percent of its fodder, and produced more than 75 percent of the value of its animal production. It was already the most industrialized and wealthy section of the country.

This article investigates the decline in turnover of manufacturing workers in the United States that occurred in the 1920s. Three labor-supply explanations are evaluated using aggregate data on manufacturing workers and case studies of four manufacturing firms. The labor-supply analysis does not yield a satisfying explanation of the decline in quit rates of manufacturing workers. The suggestion is made that an examination of firms' employment policies is necessary to explain why workers were quitting their jobs less frequently.

Building on a large sample of elderly French individuals, we evaluate the resources that were available to the old. We find that a considerable percentage of the French population did not have sufficient assets to live off of when aged. We compare the savings behaviors of pensioners and non-pensioners at a time when only a small part of the labor force was entitled to a pension. We show that pensioners were better able to accumulate wealth than were non-pensioners, even when we take into account their occupation and inherited wealth.

“Oh! La misère des vieux sans pain, des vieux sans espoir, sans enfants, sans argent, sans rien autre chose que la mort devant eux, y pensons-nous? Y pensons-nous, aux vieux affamés des mansardes? Pensons-nous aux larmes de ces yeux ternes qui furent brillants, émus et joyeux, jadis?”1

Guy de Maupassant

The failure of the Canadian Northern Railway is analyzed with a model of optimal capital structure drawn from finance theory. Ex ante bankruptcy probabilities, which are computed on the basis of different assumptions about investors' expectations, range from 40 to 90 percent; and our best estimate is about 70 percent. These high probabilities were a consequence of loan guarantees provided to the Canadian Northern by the federal and provincial governments. The guarantees induced the railway's promoters to undertake an ex ante unprofitable project and to finance that project almost exclusively with debt.

We test for the presence of market discipline in the banking sector in early-twentieth-century Mexico. Using financial data from note-issuing banks between 1900 and 1910, we examine whether bank fundamentals influenced the patterns of withdrawals and of note issue. We show that fundamentals were a strong determinant of bank withdrawals and note issue, indicating that market discipline was an important feature of the banking system in this period. This result crucially depends on correcting for selection bias generated by the exit of several banks in the 1907 crisis.

The growth of American governments in the twentieth century included large increases in funds for social insurance and public assistance. Social insurance has increased far more than public assistance, so “rise in the social insurance state” is a far better description of the century than “rise in the welfare state.” The United States has increased total spending in these areas as much or more as have European countries, but the U.S. spending has relied less heavily on government programs. In the U.S. states largely determine the benefits for many of the public assistance and social insurance programs, leading to large variation in the benefits across the country. I develop estimates of these benefits across time and place and compare them to the poverty line, manufacturing earnings and benefits, state per capita incomes in the US, as well as GDP per capita in countries throughout the world.

This article analyzes the integration of the Spanish money market in the nineteenth century. We use a Band-Threshold Autoregression model of prices of bills-of-exchange in ten cities to measure market convergence and efficiency in 1825–1875. While price gaps generally decreased during the period, progress in efficiency was limited to a small group of cities. We suggest that convergence was associated to the reduction in transaction costs, which started well before the railways through improvements in roads and postal services. By contrast, the heterogeneous behavior of efficiency might be associated to economic geography changes and their effects on monetary leadership.

Recent studies, when taken together, suggest that the bureaucratic elites of nineteenth-century Germany and Japan were much less successful in stimulating economic development than has been traditionally asserted. Direct government investment was neither extensive nor successful. Government-sponsored institutional change, notably in financial structures, had little if any beneficial impact. Development in both nations resulted from the gradual emergence of a commercial culture, and on world factors exogenous to government policy. The bureaucratic elites failed to adjust to changed circumstances, instead leading both nations into disastrous wars. These results call into question development strategies based on central government control.

This article uses a variety of data in a simple regression framework to test various hypotheses about the regional differences in U.S. bank rates of return existing before 1915. We find that the observed pattern in the return differences is a function of the measures of bank returns used in previous studies, regional differences in economic conditions, restrictions on interstate branch banking, and private bank minimum capital requirements. These results are inconsistent with most of the bank monopoly-power hypotheses in the literature.

The survivor technique is applied to a virtually complete set of plant and output data to determine the extent of scale economies in the plug, smoking, snuff, and fine-cut branches of the tobacco industry between 1897 and 1910. The data indicate that the relative cost advantage of large tobacco factories was substantial, with facilities of minimum efficient size often requiring market shares approaching 10 per cent of U. S. output. These results support one of the principal themes of The Visible Hand—that the realization of scale economies motivated the consolidation movement in American manufacturing at the turn of the century.

Historians argue that in late eighteenth-century North Aerica, apprentices often ran away form their masters. Masters’ inability to write enforceable contracts, the argument goes, sparked the decline of traditional apprenticeships. This article addresses the issue of enforcement. I analyze an apprentice’s incentive to run away and the role of enforcement with detailed archival evidence form Montreal. These data cast doubt on the claim that masters were unable to construct enforceable contracts and call into question the severity of a runaway problem.