The aim of this paper is to analyze gender differences in the determinants of the gap between actual and desired fertility in Spain. To this aim, we exploit the 2018 Fertility Survey (EF2018) from the Spanish Statistical Institute (INE). A binary probit model shows that gender differences in the risk (and its pattern) of not reaching the desired family size are generally more pronounced amongst parents than amongst childless adults. For women, a high level of education, a potentially unstable employment situation (as an employee in the private sector) and not living with a partner increases the risk of not having the desired number of children. For men, variables related to income instability or low monthly income cause a more pronounced differential between desired and actual parenthood than amongst women, while neither educational level nor partner status – amongst those who are already fathers – significantly influences their probability of not reaching the desired number of children.

This paper investigates the effects of demographic shifts on labor productivity by leveraging variation in the age structure of Italian regions. These effects are analyzed along a first channel – the direct relation between population age and productivity – and a second channel capturing the productivity implications of a more or less dispersed age distribution. We propose an estimation framework that relates regional productivity to the entire age distribution of the working-age population and use instrumental variable techniques to address endogeneity issues. The estimates yield a hump-shaped age-productivity profile peaking between 35 and 40 years. We also document non-linear effects of regional age dispersion on productivity.

The emergence of COVID-19 has resulted in a notable rise in mortality rates, consequently affecting various sectors, including the insurance industry. This paper analyzes the reflections of a sudden increase in mortality rates on the financial performance of a survival benefit scenario under the International Financial Reporting Standard 17. For this purpose, we thoroughly examined a single insurance scenario under four different states by modifying the interest and jump elements. We use Poisson-log bilinear Lee–Carter and Vasicek models for mortality and stochastic interest rate, respectively. Integrating the mortality model with a jump model that incorporates COVID-19 deaths we constructed a temporary mortality jump model. As a result, the temporary mortality jump model reflects the effects of the pandemic more realistically. We observe that even in this case mortality has a minor impact, whereas interest rates significantly still affect the financial position and performance of insurance companies.

China is entering a deeply aging society gradually, and individual pension allocation behavior has a profound impact on the practice and effect of national strategies to actively cope with population aging. This paper constructs a dyad model based on the influence path of social network ties in individual commercial pension insurance purchasing decisions, and then validates the path by building a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) based on Bayesian approach with the national longitudinal sample data of China. The empirical results show that, firstly, strong ties social interaction (e.g., visiting friend's house) positively influences individuals' commercial pension insurance purchase behavior; secondly, the less the frequency of individual social interaction is, the less significant the positive influence of social interaction on individual commercial pension insurance product purchase is; finally, between 2013 and 2018, the intensity and frequency of social interactions among middle-aged and elderly people in China has been changed dramatically by the shock of the popularity and development of digital social tools. The influence of strong ties social interaction on insurance purchase behavior becomes weaker and weaker, while that of weak ties becomes stronger.

This study investigates the linkages between changes in agricultural land use and population growth in India. We have employed long-term time series and a panel dataset of 1869 samples (267 districts × 7 time points from 1961 to 2021) to determine this. We theorize that there is an inverted “U-shape” relationship between changes in population growth and agricultural land. Our findings suggest a positive impact of population growth on the change in cultivated land. However, this relationship was not static during 1961–2021. We found a two-stage split relationship with a breakpoint in 1981. Prior to the 1980s, there was a 12% expansion in cultivated land in response to a unit increase in population growth. During the post-1980s, with a unit decline in population growth, there was a 5% reduction in cultivated land. The findings were reaffirmed through several robustness checks: analyses using alternative outcome variables, alternative break points in a segmented regression model, and spatial modeling. From a policy perspective, this study advances the need for the reduction of population growth rate in high-fertility states and the adoption of superior and green technology for agricultural intensification and diversification to stop cropland expansion at the cost of environmental sustainability.

I contribute to the literature on the growth of public spending in Western economies with a novel mechanism that ties it to the marketization process, i.e. the substitution of home with market production. I argue that a key contributor to the expansion of social spending is the replacement of family-based transfers with public pensions and other public transfer programs. I provide empirical support for this hypothesis by establishing the long-run relationship between government size and marketization, alongside other established determinants of government spending, in a panel of Western economies. I then illustrate a potential mechanism behind the results with a theoretical model in which, as a result of the productivity advantage of the market over the home sector, family-based intergenerational transfers decline unexpectedly, providing a rationale for government intervention in the form of public pensions with a poverty relief component.

This study explores the relationship between maternal working hours and a child's emotional well-being using data from the UK Millennium Cohort Study. Child well-being is assessed through self-reported happiness and a well-being index that includes concerns, temperament, bullying, and behaviour. Results show a positive association between maternal employment and child well-being, supported by factor analysis combining child, mother, and teacher reports. The association remains consistent across income levels and is unaffected by commuting time or cohabitation status. These findings highlight the importance of maternal employment and contextual factors in shaping child well-being.

This paper examines how the number of siblings that parents have affects their fertility decisions in China. The population control policies in China affected individuals unequally across birth cohorts and regions. The exogenous variation in fertility is used to identify the effect of the number of siblings on the number of children for the next generation. The results show that a couple tends to have 0.034–0.068 more children (2.3–4.6% of the average number of children) and is 2.4–6.8 percentage points more likely to violate the One-Child Policy (9.3–27.1% of the violation rate) if the husband and the wife have one more sibling each. Moreover, the effect on fertility is stronger for couples in lower-income provinces where the fertility rate is higher and in rural areas where the One-Child Policy was enforced less strictly. Finally, I show that the ideal family size of the husband and wife is an important channel through which the number of siblings affects fertility. I also find that the effect of people's number of siblings has a larger effect on their ideal number of children than on their actual number of children, suggesting that they are constrained from achieving their fertility ideals.

We study whether the increased adoption of available automation technologies allows economies to avoid the negative effect of aging on per capita output. We develop a quantitative theory in which firms choose to which extent they automate in response to a declining workforce and rising old-age dependency. An important element in our model is the integration of two capital types: automation capital that acts as a substitute to human labor, and traditional capital that is a complement to labor. Empirically, our model's predictions largely match data regarding automation (robotization) density across OECD countries. Simulating the model, we find that aging-induced automation only partially compensates the negative growth effect of aging in the absence of technical progress in automation technology. One reason is that automated tasks are no perfect substitutes for non-automated tasks. A second reason is that automation raises the interest rate and thus inhibits positive behavioral reactions to aging (later retirement and investment in human capital). Moreover, increased automation generates a falling net labor share of income and rising welfare inequality. We evaluate alternative policy responses to cope with this inequality.

Individuals who serve in the military substitute work experience for post-secondary educational attainment after high school, leading to large educational attainment gaps between new veterans and observably similar nonveterans. Little is known about the evolution of these gaps by age and across cohorts. We investigate the life-cycle attainment of veterans relative to nonveterans using a synthetic panel data approach. Following five multiyear birth cohorts we find that, on average, veterans close a 20-percentage point gap in attainment of a bachelor's or greater over time and significantly outpace observably similar nonveterans in attainment of an associate's degree. Female and minority veterans exceeded the attainment of similar nonveterans over time, and more recent birth cohorts began with larger gaps but closed them at younger ages due to increasing levels of both enrollment and enrollment intensity. Our findings highlight the important role of military service in facilitating social mobility through educational attainment.

While the Chinese government's stated position is to support religious freedom, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is officially atheist. Individuals who profess faith are typically unable to join and members who practice a religion face expulsion and a loss of benefits. This paper analyzes the extent to which the CCP's policies regarding religion may influence religious identification over the life cycle in China. To do so, we contrast changes in religious affiliation before and after retirement for CCP members and non-CCP members. We find a significant increase of religious activities and religious faith in CCP members after retirement – suggesting: (1) people's acknowledgment of religious belief is significantly influenced by CCP regulations and (2) the biggest influence from a material benefits perspective occurs for those CCP members employed in the Chinese government system.

We are the first to study how the resources freed up when a child, child-in-law, or grandchild moves out of a household are reallocated, taking into account the age of the leaver. Using the 2011 and 2013 waves of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, we document that, on average, the remaining household members save part of the resources freed up by the leaver and consume another part. Differentiating the leavers by age, we find that after the departure of a member of the younger generation aged 0–24, the remaining household members save the resources freed up by the leaver. However, if the leaver is above 24, they spend the freed-up resources. Our results are robust to the use of different specifications, estimation methods, and consumption aggregates. Finally, we observe that remittances directed toward non-resident offspring do not increase after the departure of a member of the younger generation.

Since 2006, Rwanda has experienced a substantial rise in the facility-based delivery (FBD) rate, attributed to various health initiatives. This paper investigates the impact of multiple health reforms on maternal service utilization and neonatal mortality rates. Employing a difference-in-differences framework utilizing geographical variation in the baseline FBD rate, our estimates indicate a 10–17 percentage point increase in FBD and a 0.15–0.18 times increase in the number of antenatal care visits. While our analysis indicates some evidence of a reduction in neonatal mortality rates, the findings are inconclusive. Nevertheless, our results suggest that the effect of the reforms on neonatal mortality rates was weakly intensified for those residing near district hospitals providing care for complicated pregnancies.

Fertility control strategies became widespread in rural Spain through the twentieth century: a significant number of parents decided to reduce their marital fertility once the advantages of control strategies became widely known. This paper explores the impact of those practices on children through a comparative study of the heights and occupations of grandparents, parents, and children. We analyze more than 1,200 individuals from three different generations born between 1835 and 1959 in 14 rural Spanish villages, studying whether the advantages associated with fertility control were maintained over time favoring a better family status or whether they were diluted in the next generation. The largest increases in height were among children whose parents controlled their fertility by stopping having children before the mother's 36th birthday. However, it does not seem that this increase in biological well-being was accompanied by major episodes of upward social mobility.

This paper explores whether a positive unexpected exogenous (unearned) wealth shock affects household structure decisions in different Spanish regions. The Christmas draw of the Spanish National Lottery is used in a natural experiment as a proxy for exogenous random variations in provincial wealth. A static and dynamic linear panel event-study design allows for control of changing economic and demographic conditions at the province level and the dynamic effects on the analyzed decisions. The evidence is consistent with families getting divorced and having children when the province in which they live experiences an unexpected increase in wealth, but no conclusive effect on wedding plans is found.

This paper examines the impact of female education on fertility outcomes by using the Universal Primary Education (UPE) program in Malawi as a natural experiment. The finding indicates that the UPE policy improves rural women's educational attainment by 0.42 years and an additional year of female education decreases women's number of children ever born and the number of living children by 0.39 and 0.34, respectively. An analysis of potential mechanisms suggests that the decreased fertility rates are likely driven by the reduction in women's fertility preferences, the postponement of marriage, and the delay of motherhood. Contrarily, the study finds no evidence that increased female education affects women's labor force participation and the use of modern contraception.

We show that the exposure to war-related violence increases the quantity of children temporarily, with permanent negative consequences for the quality of the current and previous cohorts. Our empirical evidence is based on Nepal, which experienced a 10 year long civil conflict of varying intensity. We exploit that villages affected by the conflict had the same trend in fertility as non-affected villages prior to the onset of conflict and employ a difference-in-differences estimator. We find that women in affected villages increased their fertility during the conflict by 19%, while child height-for-age declined by 10%. Supporting evidence suggests that the temporary fertility increase was the main pathway leading to reduced child height, as opposed to direct impacts of the conflict.

The government of Uganda introduced an education reform that eliminated school fees for primary school-age children in 1997. This paper finds that an increase in education, generated by the reform, has a positive impact on women's empowerment. Specifically, an increase in schooling, due to the reform, improves women's involvement in decision making within the household by increasing their likelihood of having a final say on issues related to their own health, about large household expenses, and regarding visits to family or relatives. Education enhances women's cognitive ability but has no impact on women's labor market opportunities and attitudes toward gender-based violence.

Theoretical models have ambiguous predictions on how workplace gender composition affects the incidence of marriage. Marital search theory suggests that having more opportunities for interactions between members of the opposite gender increases the likelihood of marriage. Yet, according to overload choice theory, people with more options could actually delay or forgo marriage if the increase in the number of choices makes it more difficult for them to make marriage decisions. I explore how changes in the gender composition within occupation and industry over the past 40 years affect marriage decisions. I find that a higher share of opposite gender coworkers within a person's occupation-industry is associated with a decreased likelihood of ever having been married.

This paper presents an empirical investigation of the hypothesis that exposure to the restrictive fertility policies of the Chinese “Later, Longer, Fewer” campaign in the 1970s contributes to the dynamics and patterns of elderly suicides in China in the period 2004–2017. We apply an identification strategy that exploits variation in exposure to this policy across birth cohorts that is based on the different timing of the implementation of the fertility policies across Chinese provinces. The results show that cohorts with a greater exposure to the restrictive fertility policy in the 1970s exhibit higher suicide rates during old ages.