Hostname: page-component-745bb68f8f-f46jp Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-02-01T04:00:54.635Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

UNDERSTANDING DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDENDS IN AFRICA: THE NTA APPROACH

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  10 January 2017

Latif Dramani  and
Idossou Jean-Baptiste Oga
Latif Dramani*
Affiliation:
CREFAT–Université de Thies
Idossou Jean-Baptiste Oga
Affiliation:
LAREG–Université de Parakou
*
Address correspondence to: Latif Dramani, CREFAT – Université de Thies, Quartier Grand Standing, BP 988 Thies, Senegal; e-mail: [email protected]
Get access

Abstract

In this paper, we document the economic implications of changing demographic conditions in Africa. To construct support ratios, we use National Transfer Accounts (NTA) estimates of per capita labor income and consumption by age, as well as population estimates and projections provided by the UN Population Division for 16 African countries. First, we find that, on average, support ratios are rising in Africa. But compared with the support ratios in Asia and Latin America, the magnitude of those in Africa is lower because the percentage of effective workers in the total population is also low. Second, we find that human capital spending is high in countries with low fertility rates, which suggests a quantity–quality trade-off. NTA estimates also show that to capitalize on the demographic dividend, countries have to create economic opportunities for young adults. In addition, investment in human and physical capital is important to generate the second demographic dividend.

Keywords

Demographic transitionlabor incomedemographic dividendssupport ratioAfricaNTAJ11J31O15
Type
Essays
Information
Journal of Demographic Economics , Volume 83 , Issue 1: Short Essays on African Demography and Economic Development , March 2017 , pp. 85 - 101
Copyright
Copyright © Université catholique de Louvain 2017 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Bloom, David E., Canning, David, Günther, Fink and Finlay, Jocelyn E. (2009) Fertility, female labor force participation, and the demographic dividend. Journal of Economic Growth 14, 79–101.Google Scholar
Bloom, David E., Canning, David and Sevilla, Jaypee (2002) The Demographic Dividend: A New Perspective on the Economic Consequences of Population Change. Santa Monica, CA: RAND.Google Scholar
Bloom, David E. and Canning, David (2003) Contraception and the Celtic Tiger. The Economic and Social Review 34 (3), 229–247.Google Scholar
d'Albis, Hippolyte and Moosa, Dalal (2015) Generational economics and the national transfer accounts. Journal of Demographic Economics 81, 409–441.Google Scholar
d'Albis, Hippolyte, Bengtsson, Tommy, Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, Alexia and Gál, Robert Iván (2015) Who Pays for Demographic Change? Public Finances and Intergenerational Transfers, Population & policy compact policy brief no. 10/2015, Population Europe.Google Scholar
Dramani, Latif (2016) Impact du dividende démographique sur la croissance économique au Sénégal. African Population Studies 30 (2, Supp.), 2832–2847.Google Scholar
Dramani, Latif and Ndiaye, Fahd (2012) Estimating the first demographic dividend in Senegal: The national transfers account. British Journal of Economics, Management & Trade 2 (2), 39–59.Google Scholar
Hammer, Bernhard, Prskawetz, Alexia and Freund, Inga (2015) Production activities and economic dependency by age and gender in Europe: A cross-country comparison. The Journal of the Economics of Ageing 5, 86–97.Google Scholar
Lee, Ronald and Mason, Andrew (Eds.), 2011 Population Aging and the Generational Economy: A Global Perspective. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK • Northampton, MA, USA.Google Scholar
Mason, Andrew and Lee, Ronald (2006) Reform and support systems for the elderly in developing countries: capturing the second demographic dividend. Genus, 62 (2), 11–35.Google Scholar
Mason, Andrew and Lee, Ronald (2010) Dynamique de la population: sécurité sociale, marchés et familles. Revue Internationale de Sécurité Sociale 63 (3–4), 158–192.Google Scholar
Mason, Andrew and Lee, Ronald (2012) Demographic Dividends and Ageing in Low-Income Countries, National Transfer Accounts Working Paper, December, 61p.Google Scholar
National Transfer Accounts Manual (2013) Measuring the Generational Economy, United Nations, New York.Google Scholar