China’s urban population has experienced rapid fertility decline over the past six decades. This drastic change will have a significant impact on China’s demographic, social and economic future. However, the patterns and characteristics of urban China’s fertility decline have not been systematically examined. This study analyses the trends and age patterns of fertility in urban China since the 1950s, and summarizes the major characteristics of reproductive behaviours into four ‘lows’: extremely ‘low’ level of fertility; ‘low’ proportion of two and higher parity births; ‘low’ mean age at birth; and ‘low’ level of childlessness. The paper argues that the highly homogenous reproductive behaviours found in China’s now near 800 million urban population have been in part shaped by the country’s unprecedented government intervention in family planning. The ‘later, longer, fewer’ campaign in the 1970s and the ‘one-child’ policy, in particular, have left clear imprints on China’s reproductive norms and fertility patterns. The government-led family planning programme, however, has not been the only driving force of fertility decline. A wide range of social, economic, political and cultural changes have also affected the transition in family formation, reproductive behaviour and fertility patterns, and this has become increasingly prominent in the past two decades.

This study discusses fertility trends and variation in countries that completed the transition from high to around-replacement fertility in the 1950s to 1980s, especially in Europe, East Asia and North America, and summarizes the key relevant findings for those countries with a more recent experience of fertility decline towards replacement level. A central finding is that there is no obvious theoretical or empirical threshold around which period fertility tends to stabilize. Period fertility rates usually continue falling once the threshold of replacement fertility is crossed, often to very low levels. While cohort fertility rates frequently stabilize or change gradually, period fertility typically remains unstable. This instability also includes marked upturns and reversals in Total Fertility Rates (TFRs), as experienced in many countries in Europe in the early 2000s. The long-lasting trend towards delayed parenthood is central for understanding diverse, low and unstable post-transitional fertility patterns. In many countries in Europe this shift to a late childbearing pattern has negatively affected the TFR for more than four decades. Many emerging post-transitional countries and regions are likely to experience a similar shift over the next two to three decades, with a depression of their TFRs to very low levels.

Anthropological explanations of demographic outcomes have emphasized the need to understand how community structures contribute to those outcomes. However, studies on fertility dynamics in Africa have largely focused on micro-level factors, thus ignoring the influence of community contexts. Using the most recent Demographic and Health Survey data from Egypt (Northern Africa), Cameroon (Middle Africa), Kenya (Eastern Africa), Nigeria (Western Africa) and Zimbabwe (Southern Africa), the study employed multilevel Poisson regression models to examine the influence of community factors on African fertility levels and patterns. The number of sampled women (aged 15–44) ranged from 7774 in Kenya (2008–09) to 30,480 in Nigeria (2008). The findings demonstrate some significant community effects on African fertility patterns, even after controlling for a number of individual-level factors. For instance, residence in socioeconomically disadvantaged regions, rural settings, poor neighbourhood and communities with high family size norm were found to be associated with higher fertility levels in the selected countries. The emerging African fertility patterns require the need to go beyond addressing individual-level characteristics in the efforts to reduce fertility levels in Africa.

After a swift decline in the 1990s, the countries of Central Asia have experienced significant fertility increases over the last 15 years. These fertility upturns have remained off the radar of demographers. This study examines the recent fertility increase in Kyrgyzstan, focusing on fertility development by parity and among the main ethnic groups, in order to go beyond classic fertility indicators and national averages. Using a sample from the 2009 Census micro-dataset, sibling progression ratios were computed using information on the relationships and dates of birth of children under the age of 15. The results allow an analysis of the fertility increase by identifying the contribution of parity and ethnic group. It was found that the fertility increase in Kyrgyzstan has been experienced across the main ethnic groups, but their respective share in the population of the country has resulted in distinct contributions to the increase. Between 2001 and 2009, 82.4% of the fertility increase was due to an increase in the fertility of Kyrgyz women. In comparison, Uzbek and Russian women contributed 10.2% and 7.4%, respectively. By accounting for the parity component and ethnic factor, this study adds important disaggregated information, not only on family-building behaviours, but also on the social dimension, which is of prime importance for a better understanding of the demography of Central Asia. The study highlights important information on family-building behaviours, which are essential for the formulation of appropriate and more effective social policies aimed at sustaining and/or increasing fertility.

In India, a substantial proportion of young people are growing up in smaller families with fewer siblings than earlier generations of young people. Studies exploring the associations between declines in sibship size and young people’s life experiences are limited. Drawing on data from a sub-nationally representative study conducted in 2006–08 of over 50,000 youths in India, this paper examines the associations between surviving sibship size and young women’s (age 20–24) transitions to adulthood. Young women who reported no or a single surviving sibling were categorized as those with a small surviving sibship size, and those who reported two or more surviving siblings as those with a large surviving sibship size. Bivariate and multivariate regression analyses were conducted to ascertain the relationship between sibship size and outcome indicators. Analysis was also done separately for low- and high-fertility settings. Small sibship size tended to have a positive influence in many ways on young women’s chances of making successful transitions to adulthood. Young women with fewer siblings were more likely than others to report secondary school completion, participation in vocational skills training programmes, experience of gender egalitarian socialization practices, adherence to gender egalitarian norms, exercise of pre-marital agency and small family size preferences. These associations were more apparent in low- than high-fertility settings.

This study examines the consequences of the universalization of small family norms in Indonesia for family well-being over the past decade (2006–2014) using contrasting views of Malthusian theory. Data came from Indonesia’s 2006–2014 Socio-Economic Survey (Susenas) conducted by Indonesia’s Bureau of Statistics and from official statistics. The survey covered 2.3 million households in 483 districts of the country. The findings show a steady small family ratio and an increase in family well-being over this period. A small family was found to be positively associated with high family well-being. The benefits of a small family for family well-being were found to vary between different sub-groups and sub-national levels. The data reveal that improving human capital and increasing access to formal jobs may be among the channels by which small family norms have increased family well-being in Indonesia.

This paper examines the fertility transition and its recent dynamics in Sri Lanka using data from Demographic and Health Surveys and Population Censuses. Fertility trends and patterns were analysed for two periods: 1953–2000 and 2000–2012. The findings revealed that Sri Lanka’s fertility transition has been relatively rapid and has taken place over a period of about four decades to reach replacement level. Social and health-related factors, including decline in maternal and infant mortality, increase in women’s education, changes in institutions, reproductive values and behaviour, and increased contraceptive use all contributed to bringing down the fertility level by 2000. However, in the 2006/07 Sri Lankan DHS and 2012 Population Census, a slight increase in Total Fertility Rate (TFR) to 2.3 and 2.4, respectively, was observed. Binary logistic regression estimates based on 2006/2007 DHS data were used to identify the significant predictors of fertility preferences of ever-married women. The analysis of factors affecting the likelihood of having a larger family (more than 2 children) revealed that lower educated women were more likely to have a higher number of children than their counterparts with a higher level of education. Women who lived in rural and estate (commercial area of 20 acres or more employing 10 or more labourers) sectors were 1.4 and 1.2 times, respectively, more likely to prefer more children compared with urban women. In terms of ethnic groups, Moor and Tamil women were 4.5 and 1.4 times, respectively, more likely to prefer more children than Sinhalese women. When the economic status of women was considered, the poorer women were 1.4 times more likely to desire a higher number of children compared with rich women, while women in the middle wealth quintile were 1.2 times more likely to desire more children. The findings suggest that the Sri Lankan government should re-visit population and reproductive health policy and family planning programmes to see how it can better manage fertility among the different population groups in Sri Lanka.

An increasing number of developing countries are experiencing below replacement fertility rates. Although the factors associated with low fertility in developed countries have been widely explored in the literature, studies of low fertility in middle- and low-income countries continue to be rare. To help fill this gap, Brazil was used as a case study to assess whether human development, gender equality and the ability of mothers with young children to work are associated with the likelihood of married or cohabiting women to have a child. For this purpose, multilevel logistic regressions were estimated using the 1991, 2000 and 2010 Brazilian Demographic Censuses. It was found that human development was negatively associated with fertility in the three periods analysed. Gender equality and the ability of mothers with young children to work were positively associated with the odds of having higher order births in Brazil in 2000 and 2010. In 1991, these variables were not associated with higher order births, and gender equality was negatively associated with first births. The positive association found in 2000 and 2010 may constitute a reversal of the relationship that in all likelihood prevailed earlier in the demographic transition when gender equality was most likely negatively correlated with fertility levels.

Using data from India’s first (1992–93) and third (2005–06) National Family Health Surveys (NFHS-I and NFHS-III) this study examined the fertility differentials between major social groups and the extent to which these varied between states and over time. The analysis was based on a sample of 54,030 and 55,369 currently married women aged 15–34 in the NFHS-I and NFHS-III respectively. Reported parity and desired family size were used to assess variations in fertility behaviour. The results show that interstate variation in childbearing patterns within social groups was at least as high as, if not higher than, variation between states (net of other influences) in both periods, 1992–93 and 2005–06. The variations among Hindus, the poor and Muslims were more noticeable than for other groups. These variations did not decline between 1992–93 and 2005–06 and may have even increased slightly for some groups. Further, there was no consistent north–south divide in either fertility behaviour or desired family size. Together, these results may point to the gradual disappearance of the influences that were once unique to southern or northern India, and the simultaneous emergence of social, political, economic and cultural forces that are pan-Indian in their reach.