Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-vdxz6 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-30T15:40:54.609Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Sources of Agricultural Growth in Communist China

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  23 March 2011

Chi-Ming Hou
Get access

Extract

In this paper, I shall try to examine and identify the factors responsible for the increase in agricultural output in Communist China in the nineteen fifties. Then I shall try to discuss the implications of my findings in relation to future agricultural growth.

Agricultural Output 1949–1957. Agricultural statistics remain the Achilles' heel in evaluating the performance of the Chinese economy in quantitative terms. For foodgrains, the official statistics show an increase of nearly 43 percent from 1949 to 1952, and nearly 20 percent from 1952 to 1957. These claims are generally regarded as exaggerated. Based on per capita consumption requirements, Liu and Yeh regard the pre-1956 official figures as gross understatements. They accept, however, the official figure for 1957. They allow for no more than 5 percent increase from 1952 to 1957 for the production of food crops. After adjustment of reported cultivated area has been made, Wu's estimate shows virtually no increase in foodgrains from 1952 to 1957. Hollister, after suggesting official understatements for earlier years, accepts the official 1955 figure and estimates that the 1957 production of basic food crops and animal products was 14 percent higher than that of 1952. Jones and Poleman also maintain that the official estimates of grain production were underestimates for 1952–54; they accept the 1955–57 figures. Their estimates put the 1957 level about 12 percent higher than that in 1952. Choh-ming Li, though without making any independent estimates of his own, regards the official figure for 1955 as more reliable or least unsatisfactory for the whole period 1949–57, while considering the pre-1955 years as underestimates and the post-1955 years (that is, 1956 and 1957) as overestimates.

Type
Articles
Information
The Journal of Asian Studies , Volume 27 , Issue 4 , August 1968 , pp. 721 - 737
Copyright
Copyright © The Association for Asian Studies, Inc. 1968

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

1 Wei-ta ti shih-nien (Peking, 1959), p. 105.Google Scholar

2 Liu, Ta-chung and Yeh, Kung-chia, The Economy of the Chinese Mainland: National Income and Economic Development, 1933–1959 (Princeton, 1965), pp. 45, 132.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

3 Wu, Yuan-li, The Economy of Communist China (New York, 1965), p. 146.Google Scholar

4 Hollister, W. W., China's Gross National Product and Social Accounts 1950–1957 (Glencoe, 1958), pp. 19, 24.Google Scholar

5 Jones, Philip P. and Poleman, Thomas T., “Communes and the Agricultural Crisis in Communist China,” Food Research Institute Studies, Vol. III, no. 1, february 1962 (Food Research Institute, Stanford University), 4.Google Scholar

6 Li, Choh-ming, The Statistical System of Communist China (Berkeley, 1962), p. 58.Google Scholar

7 Liu, and Yeh, , pp. 43–44Google Scholar. Actually there is even direct evidence that the Communists did use the Nationalist figures of cultivated acreage. This was done not because the Communists did not know the existence of unreported land (hei-ti or black land) but because of lack of other reliable data. It was mentioned that in a period of two years (1949 and 1950), there was discovered a total of 13 million mou of “black land” in the province of Honan. The discovery of “black land” was regarded as a best way to allocate the agricultural tax fairly. See Chung-yang t'sai-ching cheng-tse fa-ling hui-pien, Vol. II, june, 1951, 326.Google Scholar

8 Cheng-jui, Li, Chung-hua Jen-min kung-ho-ko nung-yeh-shui shih-kao (Draft history of agricultural tax in People's Republic of China) (Peking, 1959), p. 287.Google Scholar

9 Ibid., p. 290.

10 Liu, and Yeh, , pp. 127–29Google Scholar. The Bureau's estimate was originally for 22 provinces (about 1,000 million mou); other provinces are added here to the Bureau's total.

Mention should be made to the reference to “the unreported farm land before agricultural co-operativization of over 30 million mou” (or 1.85 percent of 1952 cultivated area). This reference was published in 1958; it was not reported when the unreported farmland was discovered or whether it had been incorporated into the official acreage figures. See Hsiao Yu, “Reclaim waste land: expand cultivated acreage,' Chi-hua ching-chi, no. 2, 1958, p. 22Google Scholar, as cited in Richard Y. C. Yin, “Agricultural Reorganization and Crop Production in Mainland China, 1952–1957,” a paper read at the Inaugural Meeting of Asian Studies on the Pacific Coast, June 16–18, 1966.

11 Cheng-jui, Li, Nung-yeh-shui shih-kao, p. 287.Google Scholar

12 Ibid., p. 299.

13 Chien-yao, Kung, “The method of computing the harvest rate,” Tung-chi kung-tso t'ung-hsin, march, 1956, pp. 16–18.Google Scholar

14 Government of India, Ministry of Food and Agriculture, Report of the Indian Delegation to China on Agricultural Planning and Techniques, July–August 1956 (New Delhi, 1956), p. 87.Google Scholar

15 Wei-ta ti shih-nien, p. 104.Google Scholar

16 Liu, and Yeh, , p. 140.Google Scholar

16a For an alternative approach, see Tang, Anthony, “Policy and Performance in Agriculture” in Economic Trends in Communist ChinaGoogle Scholar, Committee on the Economy of China, SSRC, to be published by Aldine.

17 For agricultural population data, see my “Manpower, Employment and Unemployment in Communist China,” in Economic Trends in Communist China.

18 For a penetrating analysis of the relationship of sown area, yield and output of these 16 crops, see Richard Y. C. Yin, op. cit.

19 It is very difficult to ascertain the effect of fertilizer application on yield because of lack of information on where and how fertilizers were used and how the marginal productivity curve looked. According to Communist estimates, one catty of nitrogen fertilizer can increase foodgrain output by three catties and one catty of phosphate fertilizer can increase foodgrain output by 1.5 catties. The minimum effective requirement of chemical fertilizers, in addition to organic fertilizer, for various crops is estimated at about 25 catties per mou. Liu, and Yeh, , p. 423Google Scholar. For a comparison, see Liu, Jung-chao, “Fertilizer Supply and Grain Production in Communist China,” Journal of Farm Economics, Vol. 47, no. 4, november, 1965CrossRefGoogle Scholar. It may be noted that in terms of domestic production, the ratio between nitrogenous and phosphorous fertilizers was 6 to 1 in 1957 and 3.3 to 1 in 1958. Ibid.

20 Taking 1952 as 100, the index of the number of pigs in 1952–57 is as follows:

Computed from data given in Communist China: Ministry of Agriculture, Bureau of Planning, Chungkuo yu shih-chieh chu-yao kuo-chia nung-yeh sheng-ch'an t'ung-chi tzu-liao hui-p'ien (Peking, 1958), p. 77.Google Scholar

It should be noted that the 1957 official figure is probably grossly exaggerated. For the reasons see Liu, and Yeh, , p. 55.Google Scholar

21 See Chi, Wen-shun, “Notes on the Fertilizer Accumulation Movement,”Google Scholar an unpublished manuscript.

22 Wen, Lo and Chang, Shang Kuan Chün, “Problems of Developing Farm Irrigation,” Chi-hua Ching-chi, no. 10, 1957, p. 15.Google Scholar

23 Ibid., p. 16.

24 Ibid.

25 Wei, Yueh, “On the principles and methods of studying the problem of accumulation,” Tung-chi yen-chiu, no. 5, may 23, 1958, p. 19.Google Scholar

26 Chu, Tao “Carry out the policy of emphasizing agriculture more comprehensively and effectively,” Hsiu-hua pan-yueh-k'an, no. 21, 1956, pp. 69–70.Google Scholar

27 According to Buck's study for 1929–33, the man labor requirements (number of days per crop acre) for growing various crops are as follows: barley, 40; broad beans, 48; corn, 23; cotton, 53; field peas, 22; kaoliang, 35; millet, 40; oats, 57; opium, 109; Proso-millet, 20; rapeseed, 51; rice, 82; sugar cane, 68; sweet potatoes, 67; wheat, 26; rice (early), 51; rice (late), 23; tea, 126; tobacco, 88; mulberry, 196; peanuts, 46. John Lossing Buck, Land Utilization in China (Shanghai, 1937), p. 302.

28 Richard Y. C. Yin, op. cit.

29 Richard Y. C. Yin, op. cit.

30 Report by Po I-po, JMJP, july 2, 1957Google Scholar. The description for other years: 1952, good; 1953, normal; 1954, poor.

31 The official statistics of the number of pigs in 1957 implies an increase in fertilizer; but as noted before, the official statistics have to be discounted.

32 Li, Choh-ming, Economic Development of Communist China (Berkeley, 1959), p. 58.Google Scholar

33 Buck, , p. 299.Google Scholar

34 Hsien-ting, Fang and Chih, Wu “Rural Industries of China” Ching-chi t'ung-chi chi-k'an 2.3: 617 (september, 1933).Google Scholar

35 Yuan-chen, Li “The Problems of Surplus Labor in Present-Stage Agriculture in Our Country” Chiao-hsueh yu yen-chiu, No. 2, february 4, 1957, p. 17Google Scholar. It is not reported whether these “labor days” included work on private plots.

36 Jen-min shou-tse 1964, p. 6.Google Scholar

37 Montgomery's article in The Sunday Times, Magazine Section, october 15, 1961.Google Scholar

38 JMJP, december 31, 1964Google Scholar. Report by Chou En-lai.

39 Current Scene, november 10, 1966Google Scholar (Vol. IV, no. 20), 12.

40 China News Summary, no. 117, april 28, 1966, p. 1.Google Scholar

41 New York. Times, december 29, 1966Google Scholar; Peking Review, january 6, 1967.Google Scholar

42 JMJP, december 26, 1963.Google Scholar

43 Cited in Fei-ch'ing yen'chiu, Vol. 7, no. 7, july 31, 1964, 51.Google Scholar

44 Far Eastern Economic Review Year Book 1966, p. 128.Google Scholar

45 Chi, Wen-shun, “Water Conservancy in Communist China,” The China Quarterly, No. 23, july–september 1965, p. 44.Google Scholar

46 See my “Manpower, Employment and Unemployment in Communist China,” op. cit.

47 Chen-lin, Tan “Questions concerning the mechanization of agriculture of our country,” Hung-ch'i, No. 6, march 16, 1960.Google Scholar

48 Wen-jui, Ma “The problem of labor in building socialism in our country,” Hung-ch'i, No. 5, march 1, 1961, p. 12.Google Scholar

49 JMJP, october 20, 1964Google Scholar

50 Far Eastern Economic Review Year Book 1966, p. 134.Google Scholar

51 JMJP, october 24, 1961.Google Scholar

52 JMJP, december 31, 1964Google Scholar, report by Chou En-lai.

53 Tsu-kuo, no. 24, 1966, p. 23.Google Scholar

54 Ibid.

55 Communist China Digest JPRS 35070, april 18, 1966, p. 41.Google Scholar

56 Tsu-kuo, no. 24, 1966, p. 23Google Scholar. According to one Western estimate, the total amount of chemical fertilizers available (domestic production plus imports) was only 6.75 million metric tons in 1965. Far Eastern Economic Review, february 3, 1966, p. 154.Google Scholar

57 JMJP, november 30, 1963Google Scholar, editorial, Ta-kung-pao, november 4, 1963, p. 3Google Scholar; Fei-ching yen-chiu, april 30, 1966, p. 2Google Scholar; JMJP, september 30, 1965, p. 2.Google Scholar

58 Ta-kung pao, november 4, 1963, p. 3.Google Scholar

59 JMJP, january 30, 1965, p. 1Google Scholar. The statement was made in reference to the province of Chi-lin.

60 Buck, , pp. 202–03.Google Scholar

61 Total cultivated land in 1929–33 is taken to be 1,536 million mou. Buck, John Lossing, Dawson, Owen L. and Wu, Yuan-li, Food and Agriculture in Communist China (New York, 1966), p. 53Google Scholar. For 1957, see Wei-ta ti shih-nien, p. 113.Google Scholar

62 Buck, , Dawson, and Wu, , p. 58.Google Scholar

63 Liu, and Yen, , p. 27.Google Scholar

64 The unit yield may be slightly understated for Communist China where sown area is used to estimate total output. For many other countries, harvested area is used. See the reference given in Table 8.

65 See New York Times, april 27, 1966Google Scholar. Food and cloth allowances usually granted at the birth of a child were reported to be withheld in the case of a fourth child, and even for the third child in some areas. Abortion, sterilization, the use of contraceptives, and late marriage (30 years of age for men and 25 for women) were reported to be encouraged by government officials.

66 Yin-chu, Ma, “A New Theory of Population,” Hsin-hua Pan-yueh-kan, no. 15, 1957, p. 36.Google Scholar

67 Data supplied to me by K. C. Yeh of the RAND Corporation.

68 JMJP, december 19, 1958.Google Scholar

69 China News Summary, no. 114, april 7, 1966.Google Scholar