In recent papers by Hoppe and Donnelly it has been shown that a Pólya urn model generating the Ewens sampling formula (population genetics) parallels a construction of Kingman using a Poisson–Dirichlet ‘paintbox'. Even the jump chain of Kingman's n-coalescent can be constructed using the urn. The properties of a certain process based on the coalescent also are derived. This process was introduced by Hoppe.

The complete set of eigenvalues is found for the (unlabeled) infinitely-many-neutral-alleles diffusion model. The transition density for the process, originally derived by Griffiths, is rederived as an eigenfunction expansion.

This note continues the development of the infinite-dimensional genetic algebra approach to problems of population genetics. Two algebras are studied. One describes the familiar problem of a quantitative characteristic, and the other provides a way of treating the whole chromosome as an entity.

The distribution of the number of alleles in samples from r chromosomes is studied. The stochastic model used includes gene conversion within chromosomes and mutation at loci on the chromosomes. A method is described for simulating the distribution of alleles and an algorithm given for computing lower bounds for the mean number of alleles.

A formula is derived for the expected number of samples from r chromosomes which contain the allele type of a locus chosen at random.

We consider an increasing supercritical branching process in a random environment and obtain bounds on the Laplace transform and distribution function of the limiting random variable. There are two possibilities that can be distinguished depending on the nature of the component distributions of the environment. If the minimum family size of each is 1, the growth will be as a power depending on a parameter α. If the minimum family sizes of some are greater than 1, it will be exponential, depending on a parameter γ. We obtain bounds on the distribution function analogous to those found for the simple Galton-Watson case. It is not possible to obtain exact estimates and we are only able to obtain bounds to within ε of the parameters.

Stability in population size is illusory: populations left to themselves either grow beyond all bounds or die out. But if they do not die out their composition stabilizes. These problems are discussed in terms of general abstract, multitype branching processes. The life and descent of a typical individual is described.

The Luria–Delbrück distribution arises in birth-and-mutation processes in population genetics that have been systematically studied for the last fifty years. The central result reported in this paper is a new recursion relation for computing this distribution which supersedes all past results in simplicity and computational efficiency: p0 = e–m; where m is the expected number of mutations. A new relation for the asymptotic behavior of pn (≈ c/n2) is also derived. This corresponds to the probability of finding a very large number of mutants. A formula for the z-transform of the distribution is also reported.

We give upper bounds on the critical values for oriented percolation and some interacting particle systems by computing their behavior on small finite sets.

In this paper we introduce and define for the first time the concept of a non-homogeneous semi-Markov system (NHSMS). The problem of finding the expected population stucture is studied and a method is provided in order to find it in closed analytic form with the basic parameters of the system. Moreover, the problem of the expected duration structure in the state is studied. It is also proved that all maintainable expected duration structures by recruitment control belong to a convex set the vertices of which are specified. Finally an illustration is provided of the present results in a manpower system.

We find the distribution function of a ratio of dependent random variables which can represent a generalised mortality rate in a demographic or life insurance context. Each death in the numerator and each unit of exposure in the denominator are weighted by a random sum at risk, which is assumed to follow a gamma distribution. General results on the existence of moments of ratios of random variables are established, and applied to show that the moments of the rates considered here depend in a simple way on the minimum number of entrants into the mortality investigation.

Let {Xn, n = 0, 1, 2, ···} be a transient Markov chain which, when restricted to the state space 𝒩 + = {1, 2, ···}, is governed by an irreducible, aperiodic and strictly substochastic matrix 𝐏 = (pij), and let pij(n) = P ∈ Xn = j, Xk ∈ 𝒩+ for k = 0, 1, ···, n | X0 = i], i, j 𝒩 +. The prime concern of this paper is conditions for the existence of the limits, qij say, of as n →∞. If the distribution (qij) is called the quasi-stationary distribution of {Xn} and has considerable practical importance. It will be shown that, under some conditions, if a non-negative non-trivial vector x = (xi) satisfying rxT = xT𝐏 and exists, where r is the convergence norm of 𝐏, i.e. r = R–1 and and T denotes transpose, then it is unique, positive elementwise, and qij(n) necessarily converge to xj as n →∞. Unlike existing results in the literature, our results can be applied even to the R-null and R-transient cases. Finally, an application to a left-continuous random walk whose governing substochastic matrix is R-transient is discussed to demonstrate the usefulness of our results.

Let N(t) be an exponentially ergodic birth-death process on the state space {0, 1, 2, ···} governed by the parameters {λn, μn}, where µ0 = 0, such that λn = λ and μn = μ for all n ≧ N, N ≧ 1, with λ < μ. In this paper, we develop an algorithm to determine the decay parameter of such a specialized exponentially ergodic birth-death process, based on van Doorn's representation (1987) of eigenvalues of sign-symmetric tridiagonal matrices. The decay parameter is important since it is indicative of the speed of convergence to ergodicity. Some comparability results for the decay parameters are given, followed by the discussion for the decay parameter of a birth-death process governed by the parameters such that limn→∞λn = λ and limn→∞µn = μ. The algorithm is also shown to be a useful tool to determine the quasi-stationary distribution, i.e. the limiting distribution conditioned to stay in {1, 2, ···}, of such specialized birth-death processes.

The classical one-compartment model with no input or pure death process is shown to be a limiting case of a ‘binomial cascade' model which has the same mean and in which particles exit the compartment in binomial clusters. The transition probabilities of the binomial cascade process are derived in closed form. The model is easily modified to allow Poisson input into the compartment. Distributional results are given for this model also. In particular, it is shown that the M/M/∞ queue is a limiting case.

This paper gives general conditions under which symmetric functionals of random partitions of the integer m converge in distribution as m → ∞. The main result is used to settle a conjecture of Donnelly et al. (1991) to the effect that the mean of the sum of the square roots of the relative sizes of the components of a random mapping of m integers converges to π/2 as m → ∞.

The paper presents a method of computing the extremal index for a discrete-time stationary Markov chain in continuous state space. The method is based on the assumption that bivariate margins of the process are in the domain of attraction of a bivariate extreme value distribution. Scaling properties of bivariate extremes then lead to a random walk representation for the tail behaviour of the process, and hence to computation of the extremal index in terms of the fluctuation properties of that random walk. The result may then be used to determine the asymptotic distribution of extreme values from the Markov chain.

Correlated random walk models figure prominently in many scientific disciplines. Of fundamental importance in such applications is the development of the characteristic function of the n-step probability distribution since it contains complete information on the probability structure of the process. Using a simple algebraic lemma we derive the n-step characteristic function of the Gillis correlated random walk together with other related results. In particular, we present a new and simple proof of Gillis's conjecture, consider the generalization to the Gillis–Domb–Fisher walk, and examine the effect of including an arbitrary initial distribution.

An expression for the first-passage density of Brownian motion to a curved boundary is expanded as a series of multiple integrals. Bounds are given for the error due to truncation of the series when the boundary is wholly concave or wholly convex. Extensions to the Brownian bridge and to continuous Gauss–Markov processes are given. The series provides a practical method for calculating the probability that a sample path crosses the boundary in a specified time-interval to a high degree of accuracy. A numerical example is given.

This paper considers sets of points from a Poisson process in the plane, chosen to be close together, and their properties. In particular, the perimeter of the convex hull of such a point set is investigated. A number of different models for the selection of such points are considered, including a simple nearest-neighbour model. Extensions to marked processes and applications to modelling animal territories are discussed.

Denote by Sn the set of all distinct rooted trees with n labeled vertices. Define τn as the total height of a tree chosen at random in the set Sn, assuming that all the possible nn–1 choices are equally probable. The total height of a tree is defined as the sum of the heights of its vertices. The height of a vertex in a rooted tree is the distance from the vertex to the root of the tree, that is, the number of edges in the path from the vertex to the root. This paper is concerned with the distribution and the moments of τn and their asymptotic behavior as n → ∞.

We consider integrals on Wiener space of the forms E(exp K(x)) and E(exp K(x) |L(x) = l) where K is a quadratic form and L a system of linear forms. We give explicit formulas for these integrals in terms of the operators K and L, in the case that these arise from quasilinear functions in the sense of Zhao (1981). As examples, we recover Lévy's area formula in the plane, and derive new formulas for the probability density of the radius of gyration tensor for Brownian paths.