Community detection is considered for a stochastic block model graph of n vertices, with K vertices in the planted community, edge probability p for pairs of vertices both in the community, and edge probability q for other pairs of vertices. The main focus of the paper is on weak recovery of the community based on the graph G, with o(K) misclassified vertices on average, in the sublinear regime n1-o(1) ≤ K ≤ o(n). A critical parameter is the effective signal-to-noise ratio λ = K2(p - q)2 / ((n - K)q), with λ = 1 corresponding to the Kesten–Stigum threshold. We show that a belief propagation (BP) algorithm achieves weak recovery if λ > 1 / e, beyond the Kesten–Stigum threshold by a factor of 1 / e. The BP algorithm only needs to run for log*n + O(1) iterations, with the total time complexity O(|E|log*n), where log*n is the iterated logarithm of n. Conversely, if λ ≤ 1 / e, no local algorithm can asymptotically outperform trivial random guessing. Furthermore, a linear message-passing algorithm that corresponds to applying a power iteration to the nonbacktracking matrix of the graph is shown to attain weak recovery if and only if λ > 1. In addition, the BP algorithm can be combined with a linear-time voting procedure to achieve the information limit of exact recovery (correctly classify all vertices with high probability) for all K ≥ (n / logn) (ρBP + o(1)), where ρBP is a function of p / q.

For all α > 0 and real random variables X, we establish sharp bounds for the smallest and the largest deviation of αX from the logarithmic distribution also known as Benford's law. In the case of uniform X, the value of the smallest possible deviation is determined explicitly. Our elementary calculation puts into perspective the recurring claims that a random variable conforms to Benford's law, at least approximately, whenever it has large spread.

An infinite convergent sum of independent and identically distributed random variables discounted by a multiplicative random walk is called perpetuity, because of a possible actuarial application. We provide three disjoint groups of sufficient conditions which ensure that the right tail of a perpetuity ℙ{X > x} is asymptotic to axce-bx as x → ∞ for some a, b > 0, and c ∈ ℝ. Our results complement those of Denisov and Zwart (2007). As an auxiliary tool we provide criteria for the finiteness of the one-sided exponential moments of perpetuities. We give several examples in which the distributions of perpetuities are explicitly identified.

Exemplar models are a popular class of models used to describe language change. Here we study how limiting the memory capacity of an individual in these models affects the system's behaviour. In particular, we demonstrate the effect this change has on the extinction of categories. Previous work in exemplar dynamics has not addressed this question. In order to investigate this, we will inspect a simplified exemplar model. We will prove for the simplified model that all the sound categories but one will always become extinct, whether memory storage is limited or not. However, computer simulations show that changing the number of stored memories alters how fast categories become extinct.

We develop shock model theory in different scenarios for the ℳ-class of life distributions introduced by Klar and Müller (2003). We also study the cumulative damage model of A-Hameed and Proschan (1975) in the context of ℳ-class and establish analogous results. We obtain moment bounds and explore weak convergence issues within the ℳ-class of life distributions.

Poisson-like behavior for event count data is ubiquitous in nature. At the same time, differencing of such counts arises in the course of data processing in a variety of areas of application. As a result, the Skellam distribution – defined as the distribution of the difference of two independent Poisson random variables – is a natural candidate for approximating the difference of Poisson-like event counts. However, in many contexts strict independence, whether between counts or among events within counts, is not a tenable assumption. Here we characterize the accuracy in approximating the difference of Poisson-like counts by a Skellam random variable. Our results fully generalize existing, more limited, results in this direction and, at the same time, our derivations are significantly more concise and elegant. We illustrate the potential impact of these results in the context of problems from network analysis and image processing, where various forms of weak dependence can be expected.

By extending the methods of Peligrad et al. (2014), we establish exact moderate and large deviation asymptotics for linear random fields with independent innovations. These results are useful for studying nonparametric regression with random field errors and strong limit theorems.

We consider a supercritical branching process (Zn, n ≥ 0) with offspring distribution (pk, k ≥ 0) satisfying p0 = 0 and p1 > 0. By applying the self-normalized large deviation of Shao (1997) for independent and identically distributed random variables, we obtain the self-normalized large deviation for supercritical branching processes, which is the self-normalized version of the result obtained by Athreya (1994). The self-normalized large deviation can also be generalized to supercritical multitype branching processes.

For many practical situations in reliability engineering, components in the system are usually dependent since they generally work in a collaborative environment. In this paper we build sufficient conditions for comparing two coherent systems under different random environments in the sense of the usual stochastic, hazard rate, reversed hazard rate, and likelihood ratio orders. Applications and numerical examples are provided to illustrate all the theoretical results established here.

We study the conditions for unimodality of the lifetime distribution of a coherent system when the ordered component lifetimes in the system are described by generalized order statistics. Results for systems with independent and identically distributed lifetimes of components are included in this setting. The findings are illustrated with some examples for different types of systems. In particular, coherent systems with strictly bimodal density functions are presented in the case of independent standard uniform distributed lifetimes of components. Furthermore, we use the results to derive a sharp upper bound on the expected system lifetime in terms of the mean and the standard deviation of the underlying distribution.

Let X be a jump-diffusion process and X* its running supremum. In this paper we first show that for any t > 0, the law of the pair (X*t, Xt) has a density with respect to the Lebesgue measure. This allows us to show that for any t > 0, the law of the pair formed by the random variable Xt and the running supremum X*t of X at time t can be characterized as a weak solution of a partial differential equation concerning the distribution of the pair (X*t, Xt). Then we obtain an expression of the marginal density of X*t for all t > 0.

For spectrally negative Lévy risk processes we consider a general version of de Finetti's optimal dividend problem in which the ruin time is replaced with a general drawdown time from the running maximum in its value function. We identify a condition under which a barrier dividend strategy is optimal among all admissible strategies if the underlying process does not belong to a small class of compound Poisson processes with drift, for which the take-the-money-and-run dividend strategy is optimal. It generalizes the previous results on dividend optimization from ruin time based to drawdown time based. The associated drawdown functions are discussed in detail for examples of spectrally negative Lévy processes.

We simultaneously estimate the four parameters of a subcritical Heston process. We do not restrict ourselves to the case where the stochastic volatility process never reaches zero. In order to avoid the use of unmanageable stopping times and a natural but intractable estimator, we use a weighted least-squares estimator. We establish strong consistency and asymptotic normality for this estimator. Numerical simulations are also provided, illustrating the favorable performance of our estimation procedure.

In this paper we study the Robbins–Monro procedure Xn+1 = Xn - an-1Yn with some fixed number a > 0 and establish the moderate deviation principle of the process {Xn}.

In this paper we study the numerical approximation of the optimal long-run average cost of a continuous-time Markov decision process, with Borel state and action spaces, and with bounded transition and reward rates. Our approach uses a suitable discretization of the state and action spaces to approximate the original control model. The approximation error for the optimal average reward is then bounded by a linear combination of coefficients related to the discretization of the state and action spaces, namely, the Wasserstein distance between an underlying probability measure μ and a measure with finite support, and the Hausdorff distance between the original and the discretized actions sets. When approximating μ with its empirical probability measure we obtain convergence in probability at an exponential rate. An application to a queueing system is presented.

In this paper we consider the integral functionals of the general epidemic model up to its extinction. We develop a new approach to determine the exact Laplace transform of such integrals. In particular, we obtain the Laplace transform of the duration of the epidemic T, the final susceptible size ST, the area under the trajectory of the infectives AT, and the area under the trajectory of the susceptibles BT. The method relies on the construction of a family of martingales and allows us to solve simple recursive relations for the involved parameters. The Laplace transforms are then expanded in terms of a special class of polynomials. The analysis is generalized in part to Markovian epidemic processes with arbitrary state-dependent rates.

In this paper we prove a quenched functional central limit theorem for a biased random walk on a supercritical Galton–Watson tree with leaves. This extends a result of Peres and Zeitouni (2008) where the case without leaves was considered. A conjecture of Ben Arous and Fribergh (2016) suggests an upper bound on the bias which we observe to be sharp.

We study the asymptotic tail behavior of the first-passage time over a moving boundary for a random walk conditioned to return to zero, where the increments of the random walk have finite variance. Typically, the asymptotic tail behavior may be described through a regularly varying function with exponent -½, where the impact of the boundary is captured by the slowly varying function. Yet, the moving boundary may have a stronger effect when the tail is considered at a time close to the return point of the random walk bridge, leading to a possible phase transition depending on the order of the distance between zero and the moving boundary.

Mao and Hu (2010) left an open problem about the hazard rate order between the largest order statistics from two samples of n geometric random variables. Du et al. (2012) solved this open problem when n = 2, and Wang (2015) solved for 2 ≤ n ≤ 9. In this paper we completely solve this problem for any value of n.

We give a simple conceptual proof of the consistency of a test for multivariate uniformity in a bounded set K ⊂ ℝd that is based on the maximal spacing generated by independent and identically distributed points X1, . . ., Xn in K, i.e. the volume of the largest convex set of a given shape that is contained in K and avoids each of these points. Since asymptotic results for the d > 1 case are only availabe under uniformity, a key element of the proof is a suitable coupling. The proof is general enough to cover the case of testing for uniformity on compact Riemannian manifolds with spacings defined by geodesic balls.