This note continues the development of the infinite-dimensional genetic algebra approach to problems of population genetics. Two algebras are studied. One describes the familiar problem of a quantitative characteristic, and the other provides a way of treating the whole chromosome as an entity.

The Luria–Delbrück distribution arises in birth-and-mutation processes in population genetics that have been systematically studied for the last fifty years. The central result reported in this paper is a new recursion relation for computing this distribution which supersedes all past results in simplicity and computational efficiency: p0 = e–m; where m is the expected number of mutations. A new relation for the asymptotic behavior of pn (≈ c/n2) is also derived. This corresponds to the probability of finding a very large number of mutants. A formula for the z-transform of the distribution is also reported.

We find the distribution function of a ratio of dependent random variables which can represent a generalised mortality rate in a demographic or life insurance context. Each death in the numerator and each unit of exposure in the denominator are weighted by a random sum at risk, which is assumed to follow a gamma distribution. General results on the existence of moments of ratios of random variables are established, and applied to show that the moments of the rates considered here depend in a simple way on the minimum number of entrants into the mortality investigation.

This paper gives general conditions under which symmetric functionals of random partitions of the integer m converge in distribution as m → ∞. The main result is used to settle a conjecture of Donnelly et al. (1991) to the effect that the mean of the sum of the square roots of the relative sizes of the components of a random mapping of m integers converges to π/2 as m → ∞.

An expression for the first-passage density of Brownian motion to a curved boundary is expanded as a series of multiple integrals. Bounds are given for the error due to truncation of the series when the boundary is wholly concave or wholly convex. Extensions to the Brownian bridge and to continuous Gauss–Markov processes are given. The series provides a practical method for calculating the probability that a sample path crosses the boundary in a specified time-interval to a high degree of accuracy. A numerical example is given.

Let Qn denote the number of times where a simple random walk reaches its maximum, where the random walk starts at the origin and returns to the origin after 2n steps. Such random walks play an important role in probability and statistics. In this paper the distribution and the moments of Qn, are considered and their asymptotic behavior is studied.

We derive conditions under which the increments of a vector process are associated — i.e. under which all pairs of increasing functions of the increments are positively correlated. The process itself is associated if it is generated by a family of associated and monotone kernels. We show that the increments are associated if the kernels are associated and, in a suitable sense, convex. In the Markov case, we note a connection between associated increments and temporal stochastic convexity.

Our analysis is motivated by a question in variance reduction: assuming that a normalized process and its normalized compensator converge to the same value, which is the better estimator of that limit? Under some additional hypotheses we show that, for processes with conditionally associated increments, the compensator has smaller asymptotic variance.

We show that under some assumptions a diffusion process satisfying a one-dimensional Itô's equation has a transition probability density concentrated on a finite spatial interval. We give a formula for this density.

The paper deals with a problem which arises in the Monte Carlo optimization of steady state or ergodic systems which can be modelled by Markov chains. The transition probability depends on a parameter, and one wishes to find the parameter value at which some performance function is minimum. The only available data are obtained from either simulation or actual operating information. For such a problem one needs good statistical estimates of the derivatives. Conditions are given for the existence of the derivative of the stationary measure with respect to the parameter, in the sense that the derivative is a signed measure, and is the limit of the natural approximating sequence. Some properties and a useful characterization of the derivative are obtained. It is also shown that, under appropriate conditions, the derivative of the n-step transition function converges to the derivative of the stationary measure as n tends to ∞. This latter result is of particular importance whether one is simply estimating or is actually optimizing via some sequential Monte Carlo procedure, since the basic observations are always taken over a finite time interval.

Assume that we want to estimate – σ, the abscissa of convergence of the Laplace transform. We show that no non-parametric estimator of σ can converge at a faster rate than (log n)–1, where n is the sample size. An optimal convergence rate is achieved by an estimator of the form where xn = O(log n) and is the mean of the sample values overshooting xn. Under further parametric restrictions this (log n)–1 phenomenon is also illustrated by a weak convergence result.

Two recent papers by Petruccelli and Woolford (1984) and Chan et al. (1985) showed that the key element governing ergodicity of a threshold AR(1) model is the joint behavior of the two linear AR(1) pieces falling in the two boundary threshold regimes. They used essentially the necessary and sufficient conditions for ergodicity of a general Markov chain of Tweedie (1974), (1975) in a rather clever manner. However, it is difficult to extend the results to the more general threshold ARMA models. Besides, irreducibility is also required to apply Tweedie's results. In this paper, instead of pursuing the ideas in Tweedie's results, we shall develop a criterion similar in spirit to the technique used by Beneš (1967) in the context of continuous-time Markov chains. Consequently, we derive a necessary and sufficient condition for existence of a strictly stationary solution of a general non-linear ARMA model to be introduced in Section 2 of this paper. This condition is then applied to the threshold ARMA(1, q) model to yield a sufficient condition for strict stationarity which is identical to the condition given by Petruccelli and Woolford (1984) for the threshold AR(1). Hence, the conjecture that the moving average component does not affect stationarity is partially verified. Furthermore, under an additional irreducibility assumption, ergodicity of a non-linear ARMA model is established. The paper then concludes with a necessary condition for stationarity of the threshold ARMA(1, q) model.

The asymptotic behaviour of sequences of Markov processes whose finite distributions depend upon the sample paths ω of a positive recurrent Markov chain ξ is studied. The existence of such sequences depends upon the existence of a unique class of directed weighted circuits having a probabilistic interpretation in terms of the directed circuits occurring along the sample paths of ξ. An application to multiple Markov chains is given.

Limit Statements obtainable by the key renewal theorem are of the form EXt = v(t) + o(1), as t →∞. We show how to delineate the limit function v for processes X associated with crudely regenerative phenomena. Included are refinements of classical limit theorems for Markov and regenerative processes, limits of sums of stationary random variables, and limits for integrals and derivatives of EXt.

We apply the general theory of stochastic integration to identify a martingale associated with a Lévy process modified by the addition of a secondary process of bounded variation on every finite interval. This martingale can be applied to queues and related stochastic storage models driven by a Lévy process. For example, we have applied this martingale to derive the (non-product-form) steady-state distribution of a two-node tandem storage network with Lévy input and deterministic linear fluid flow out of the nodes.

The generating functions for the serial covariances for number in system in the stationary GI/M/1 bulk arrival queue with fixed bulk sizes, and the GI/Em/1 queue, are derived. Expressions for the infinite sum of the serial correlation coefficients are also presented, as well as the first serial correlation coefficient in the case of the bulk arrival queue. Several numerical examples are considered.

Generalized M/G/1 vacation systems with exhaustive service include multiple and single vacation models and a setup time model possibly combined with an N-policy. In these models with given initial conditions, the time-dependent joint distribution of the server's state, the queue size, and the remaining vacation or service time is known (Takagi (1990)). In this paper, capitalizing on the above results, we obtain the Laplace transforms (with respect to time) for the distributions of the virtual waiting time, the unfinished work (backlog), and the depletion time. The steady-state limits of those transforms are also derived. An erroneous expression for the steady-state distribution of the depletion time in a multiple vacation model given by Keilson and Ramaswamy (1988) is corrected.

Shanthikumar and Sumita (1986) proved that the stationary system queue length distribution just after a departure instant is geometric for GI/GI/1 with LCFS-P/H service discipline and with a constant acceptance probability of an arriving customer, where P denotes preemptive and H is a restarting policy which may depend on the history of preemption. They also got interesting relationships among characteristics. We generalize those results for G/G/1 with an arbitrary restarting LCFS-P and with an arbitrary acceptance policy. Several corollaries are obtained. Fakinos' (1987) and Yamazaki's (1990) expressions for the system queue length distribution are extended. For a Poisson arrival case, we extend the well-known insensitivity for LCFS-P/resume, and discuss the stationary distribution for LCFS-P/repeat.

Until Guerry's (1990) counterexample to a conjecture of Davies about three-state hierarchical organisations kept at constant size via annual promotion, wastage and recruitment, it was easy to believe that such structures maintainable in t steps would also be maintainable in t + 1 steps. Here we present further counterexamples, which show that t-step maintainability does not imply (t + 1)-step maintainability, for astonishingly large values of t.

In this paper we obtain a new crossing result for Brownian motion. The boundary studied is a piecewise linear function consisting of two lines. The expression obtained for the boundary crossing probability is of a simple directly computable form.

In this paper, the recurrence or transience of simple random walks on some lattice fractals is investigated. As results, we obtain that the simple random walk on the pre-Sierpinski gasket in d dimensions is recurrent for all d ≧ 2, and on the pre-Sierpinski carpet in d dimensions it is recurrent for d = 2 and transient for all d ≧ 3.