Using 1971-2000 data, we examine the accuracy of corn and soybean production forecasts provided by the USD A and two private agencies. All agencies improved their forecasts as the harvest progressed, and forecast errors were highly correlated and unbiased. The relative forecast accuracy of the agencies varied by crop and month. For corn, USDA's forecasts ranked as most accurate of the three agencies in all periods except for August during the recent period and improved most markedly as harvest progressed. For soybeans, forecast errors were very similar, with the private agencies ranking as most accurate for August and September and making largest relative improvements for August during the recent period. The USDA forecasts were dominant for October and November. Our findings identify several patterns of relative forecast accuracy that have implications for private and public decision makers.

Is entrepreneurship an innate ability or an acquired skill? Can entrepreneurial acumen be achieved and enhanced through education and training, or are certain people “born” to be entrepreneurs or to act entrepreneurially? Economists and management theorists give widely divergent answers to these questions. This paper reviews the major approaches to teaching entrepreneurship, primarily at the undergraduate level, and relates them to economic theories of entrepreneurship. Surprisingly, we find little connection between the leading approaches to entrepreneurship education and economists' understanding of the entrepreneurial function. We assess likely explanations for the lack of contact between these two groups of scholars and suggest possible improvements.

Deterministic and stochastic yield response plateau functions were estimatedto determine the expected profit-maximizing nitrogen rates, yields, and netreturns for corn grown after corn, cotton, and soybeans. The stochasticresponse functions were more appropriate than their deterministiccounterparts, and the linear response stochastic plateau described the datathe best. The profit-maximizing nitrogen rates were similar for corn aftercorn, cotton, and soybeans, but relative to corn after corn, the expectedcorn yield plateaus increased by 12% and 16% after cotton and soybeans,respectively. Expected net returns increased for corn after cotton andsoybeans relative to corn after corn.

We estimate adults' willingness to pay (WTP) to reduce health risks to their own or other families' infants to test for altruism. A conjoint analysis of adults paying for bottled water found marginal WTP for reduction in risk of shock, brain damage, and mortality in the cash treatment of $2, $3.70, and $9.43, respectively. In the hypothetical market these amounts were $14, $26, and $66, indicating substantial hypothetical bias, although not unexpected due to the topic of infant health. Statistical tests confirm a high degree of altruism in our WTP results, and altruism held even when real money was involved.

This study offers insights on consumer acceptance and willingness to pay for three value-added blueberry products. A modified payment card approach was used. The analytical framework adopted allows the researcher to attach straightforward economic interpretation to the estimated impacts of willingness to pay factors. Results show consumer socio-economic characteristics are important determinants but play different roles depending on the products. Information on health benefits may also be important. However, it is found that outside information or consumer self-stated awareness of blueberries' health benefits have different impacts. These impacts may function as substitutes rather than complements to each other.

Attributes for two value-added seafood products derived from underutilized crawfish are analyzed using conjoint data from seafood restaurants in the southern region of the United States. Preferences for the products' form, price, and flavor attributes were tested. Statistical tests revealed that the attribute interactions were not significant, and part-worth utilities for all main effects were estimated using an additive preference model. Results indicate that the new crawfish products should be marketed as a high-quality fresh soup base or seafood stuffing, priced between 30% and 50% of the cost of fresh crawfish tail meat.

Competitive pressures in the cow-calf sector increased in 1995 because of a decline of 27% in calf prices. Technical, allocative, and scale efficiency measures were used to examine the competitiveness of a sample of Kansas beef cow farms. On average, the farms were 78% technically efficient, 81% allocatively efficient, and 95% scale efficient. Enterprise profitability was correlated positively with the efficiency measures. Inefficiency was related to herd size and degree of specialization. Producers should focus on using capital, feed, and labor more efficiently rather than increasing their size. Increased concentration of the cow-calf sector will not result in large cost savings given the current technology.

Online marketplaces could help direct-to-consumer (DTC) farms compete for customers making grocery purchases on the internet by reducing the search and transportation costs of in-person DTC transactions. While in-person DTC marketplaces have been conducive for metropolitan farms historically, we explore whether rural DTC farms, with distance-based challenges accessing customers, are more likely to have online platforms. We find that rural farms distant from metropolitan counties that are new to DTC marketing are 7% more likely to have online marketplaces than more experienced rural farms, while new metropolitan farms are less likely to have them.

Using cover crops can be beneficial not only for soil health but also for the environment. However, relatively few farmers have adopted cover crops, so understanding the barriers to adoption is necessary. We used a probit model with data on 1,712 soybean producers from the 2012 USDA Agricultural Resource Management Survey to identify factors affecting adoption of cover crops. We found that more precipitation was positively correlated with adoption, as was more hired labor. Adoption was also positively correlated with crop diversification and no-till adoption, which may relate to equipment availability.

A multinomial logit is utilized to model the choice of whether to purchase yield or revenue insurance using subjectively elicited survey data. Our results indicate that the demand for crop insurance is inelastic (−0.40), consistent with most earlier yield elasticity estimates, but the elasticity for choices between yield and revenue insurance is found to be relatively more elastic (−0.88).

Even as self-employment continues to increase, policymakers remain largelyunaware of this trend and fail to see it as an opportunity for addressingenduring joblessness. In part, this is explained by limited data on theself-employed and by widespread perceptions that returns to self-employmentare low; that the self-employed are merely patching together piecemeal workopportunities requiring limited skills; and that there are no local economicimpacts or spillover benefits into other sectors. Contrary to theseperceptions, recent studies suggest that self-employment has tangiblepositive economic impacts not only on wage and salary employment but also onper capita income growth and poverty reduction. This article synthesizes thepertinent emerging literature and assesses dynamics of the lags involvedbetween self-employment shocks and subsequent employment growth.

The Renewable Fuel Standard mandates in the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 will require 36 billion gallons of ethanol to be produced in 2022. The mandates require that 16 of the 36 billion gallons must be produced from cellulosic feedstocks. The potential land use implications resulting from these mandates were examined using two methods, the POLYSYS model and a general equilibrium model. Results of the POLYSYS analysis indicated that 72.1 million tons of corn stover, 23.5 million tons of wheat straw, and 24.7 million acres would be used to produce 109 million tons of switchgrass in 2025 to meet the mandate. Results of the CGE analysis indicated that 10.9 billion bushels of corn grain, 71 million tons of corn stover, and 56,200 tons of switchgrass is needed to meet the mandate.

In this article, we used bootstrap data envelopment analysis techniques toexamine technical and scale efficiency scores for a balanced panel of 564farms in Kansas for the period 1993–2007. The production technology isestimated under three different assumptions of returns to scale and theresults are compared. Technical and scale efficiency is disaggregated byfarm size and specialization. Our results suggest that farms are both scaleand technically inefficient. On average, technical efficiency hasdeteriorated over the sample period. Technical efficiency varies directly byfarm size and the differences are significant. Differences across farmspecializations are not significant.

Rice, may be of a high- or low-quality type, based on the size and shape of the rice grain and variety. Thus, perhaps with an increase in income, consumers might not only switch from rice to other high-value-added foods, but also shift away from short-and-bold-grain to long-and-slender-grain rice. Using the case of Bangladesh, this article examines the drivers of change in rice grain-type preferences by households. We econometrically demonstrate that educated, rich, and urban households in Bangladesh are increasingly consuming fine-grain (i.e., long-and-slender-grain) rice, by replacing ordinary-grain (i.e., short-and-bold-grain) rice.

A survey of Kansas, Texas, and Iowa agricultural producers was taken to examine the factors affecting their grain marketing practices. Sales indices models and models of qualitative choice are used to determine whether marketers' choices of cash market, forward contract, or futures and options oriented marketing practices are significantly affected by their personal and farm business characteristics. Results indicate that geographic location, farm size, grain enterprise specialization, farming experience, use of grain storage, and use of crop insurance have significant effects upon the respondents' choice of grain marketing practices.

The objective of this study was to identify factors which contribute to the earnings' success of cash grain farms in the United States. The study analyzes three measures of success including net farm income per dollar of asset, operators' returns to labor and management, and operators' management income. Logit regression analysis shows that controlling variable costs, ownership, management ability, technology adoption, and diversification are important factors that influence success.

Many consumers are concerned with animal welfare in the conventional production of farm livestock. This concern can be related both to their own and others' consumption. In the latter case, there is a negative externality from consumption. We suggest a survey design that enables us to test for a market failure in farm livestock production. Applying this to the question of battery cages in egg production, we cannot show that a market failure exists. The policy can be extended to a general discussion of how potential market failures for all kind of farm livestock should be managed.

The effect of stochastic factors on soil carbon makes the quantity of carbon generated under a sequestration project uncertain. Hence, the quantity of sequestered carbon may need to be discounted to avoid liability from shortfalls. We present a potentially applicable uncertainty discount and discuss difficulties that might arise in empirical use. We insist that the variance in historical crop yields across geographical areas is used to derive a proxy variance for forming an uncertainty discount for carbon projects. Application of our approach suggests that project level uncertainty discounts would be 15-20% for the East Texas region.

This analysis examines the economic impact of an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) and the consequences of regionalization. The results suggest that an outbreak would have serious economic effects. Depending on the regionalization scenario, returns to capital and management in the poultry meat and egg sectors would fall between $602 million and $853 million dollars over 16 quarters. Consumers of poultry meat lose $900 million in consumer surplus in the first four quarters, a decline of 10.7%. Egg consumer surplus falls 17.1%. Regionalization lowers the economic welfare losses for producers because it dampens the export loss.

This study compares an ordered probit model and a Tobit model with selection to take into account both true zero and protest zero bids while estimating the willingness to pay (WTP) for conservation easements in Macon County, NC. By comparing the two models, the ordered/unordered selection issue of the protest responses is analyzed to demonstrate how the treatment of protest responses can significantly influence WTP models. Both models consistently show that income and knowledge are positive and significant factors, while distance to poorer quality streams and duration of residency are negative and significant factors on WTP.