We examine the economic tradeoff between the costs of pre-event preparedness and post-event response to the potential introduction of an infectious animal disease. In a simplified case study setting, we examine the conditions for optimality of an enhanced pre-event detection system considering various characteristics of a potential infectious cattle disease outbreak, costs of program implementation, severity of the disease outbreak, and relative effectiveness of postevent response actions. We show that the decision to invest in pre-event preparedness activities depends on such factors as probability of disease introduction, disease spread rate, relative costs, ancillary benefits, and effectiveness of mitigation strategies.

Signaling is an important element in the lender-borrower relationship that influences the cost and availability of debt capital to agricultural borrowers. This paper analyzes the effects of signaling on farm capital structure in conjunction with the pecking order and trade-off theories. The aggregate estimation indicates that signaling does affect agricultural credit relationships through measures of past cash flow and profitability. High-quality borrowers achieve greater credit capacity by providing lenders with valid signals of their financial status, while adjusting toward target debt levels over time and following the pecking order relationship in the short run.

Landowners rarely insure standing timber, suggesting the limited products available do not appeal to potential clientele. We estimated landowner willingness to pay (WTP) for standing timber insurance. Data were generated through a contingent valuation survey. Questionnaires were mailed to a random sample of Mississippi private forest landowners with 100+ acres of forestland. WTP for standing timber insurance was derived using an interval-censored survival model and a Kaplan-Meier Turnbull nonparametric model. The estimated WTP premium rate was approximately $3.20 per $1,000 of standing timber value, well below existing premium rates. This partially explains the underinsurance of standing timber among landowners.

Consumer preferences for four livestock products were investigated to determine consumer willingness to pay (WTP) for livestock production process attributes. We use an inferred method of attribute nonattendance (ANA) using the coefficient of variation on individual specific parameter estimates to assess the variability of preference intensity for various product characteristics. We find that accounting for ANA did not significantly impact mean estimates of WT P. Implications of our findings on the reliability of existing work in the area of consumer preferences for animal welfare attributes are discussed.

Because of the decline of the Ogallala Aquifer, water districts, regional water managers, and state water officers are becoming increasingly interested in conservation policies. This study evaluates both short-term and long-term water rights buyout policies. This research develops dynamic production functions for the major crops in the Texas Panhandle. The production functions are incorporated into optimal temporal allocation models that project annual producer behavior, crop choices, water use, and aquifer declines over 60 years. Results suggest that long-term buyouts may be more economically efficient than short-term buyouts.

South Africa is emerging as a major player in the world agricultural products market. This study investigates aggregate food demand patterns in South Africa using a linear approximate almost ideal demand system (LA/AIDS) modeling framework. Data from a 1993 integrated national household survey are employed in the analysis. Empirical results show that demand for meat and fish, grains, dairy products, fruits, vegetables, and other foods are generally price elastic. The expenditure elasticities imply that meat and fish and grains are luxury products, whereas dairy products, fruits, vegetables, and other foods are necessities in the household diet. The results also indicate that if income of households increases food expenditure on meat and fish and grains would increase, whereas that on dairy products, fruits, vegetables, and other foods would decrease. Race, age, and gender of household head, urbanization, and family size affect food demand in South Africa.

This analysis presents a theoretical model of firm response to border enforcement and evaluates both the intended and unintended effects under two enforcement regimes: destruction versus treatment of contaminated shipments. The results indicate that importers may respond to increased inspection by reducing shipments and decreasing due care. In response to increased pest populations, firms may reduce shipments and increase due care, indicating that an enforcement response may not be necessary. The analysis reveals the importance of the nature of the due-care technology, as well as the relationships underlying the probability of detection, in determining the effects of enforcement.

Much of the solid waste stream in the United States is generated by metropolitan areas, while associated landfills are often located in adjacent rural communities. Landfill disposal of municipal solid waste often creates external costs to nearby residents. Contingent valuation was used to estimate external costs of siting a landfill in the Carter community of Knox County, Tennessee. Estimates of annual external costs were $227 per household. Household income, size, years in the community, and distance from the proposed landfill and the respondent's education, sex, and perception of health risks were important in determining a household's willingness to pay to avoid having a landfill in the Carter community. Also, households whose (drinking water supplies were at risk of contamination were willing to pay $141 more than those who used piped city water or bottled water.

In this paper we seek to characterize the robustness of the ENSO/soybean price relationship and to determine whether it has practical economic content. If such a meaningful relationship exists, the implications could be profound for commodity traders and for public sector investments in climate forecasting capabilities. Also, the validity of economic evaluations of climate impacts and climate forecasts based on ENSO-price independence would come into question. Our findings suggest a relationship between interannual climate and soybean prices, although we are not able to attribute the relationship to ENSO or to say that ENSO is economically important.

A multiobjective optimization model integrating with high-resolution geographical data was applied to examine the optimal switchgrass supply system in Tennessee that considers both feedstock cost and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the system. Results suggest that the type of land converted into switchgrass production is crucial to both plant gate cost and GHG emissions of feedstock. In addition, a tradeoff relationship between cost and GHG emissions for the switchgrass supply is primarily driven by the type of land converted. The imputed cost of lowering GHG emissions in the feedstock supply system was also calculated based on the derived tradeoff curve.

Biofuel production from lignocellulosic biomass (LCB) is being advocated as an alternative to fossil-based transportation fuels in the United States. LCB-based biofuel production has the potential to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the transportation sector and to enhance rural economic activity through more intense use of agricultural lands (English et al., 2006). The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) established in 2005 and revised in the Energy Independence and Security Act 2007 mandates 21 billion gallons of advanced biofuel (other than ethanol derived from corn starch) available for transportation use by 2022 with 16 billion gallons to be produced from LCB feedstock (U.S. Congress, 2007). Based on the recently revised One Billion Ton Update study (U. S. Department of Energy, 2011), considerable LCB feedstock, including dedicated energy crops, will be required to fulfill this goal. Notwithstanding the potential availability of LCB feedstock to meet the mandate, the cost of LCB feedstock will be an important factor influencing the sustainability of an LCB-based biofuel industrial sector.

This article presents current investment and operating costs of ethanol and biodiesel plants for alternative prices of feedstock. The price of these two fuels is estimated for alternative prices of crude oil with the existing renewable fuels policy. The excise tax credit, currently $0.51 per gallon of ethanol and $1.00 per gallon of biodiesel, is a major contributor to the fuel price and profitability of these industries. The analysis demonstrates how the crude oil price, feedstock price, and excise tax credits interact to impact profitability of these industries.

Delineation of geographic markets for fed cattle is essential in monitoring price behavior and determining geographic markets. This study uses transactions data from 28 U.S. fed cattle slaughter plants to determine the extent of the geographic market for fed cattle. Results indicate a national market for fed cattle with prices across most plants cointegrated. In addition, price discovery originates predominantly at plants located in Nebraska, and typically one-third of the total price adjustment to spatial integration occurs in one day.

This paper examines Chinese consumer preference for major animal products and assesses the potential impacts of a reduction in China's import tariff on its pork and poultry demand and net import. Our analysis suggests that China's demand for animal products will continue to grow as income increases. Using a trade model, results of our scenario analysis indicate that a reduction in China's import tariffs will significantly increase its net pork and poultry imports and the U.S. will capture most of the increases. Nevertheless, the impact on the market price in China and the U.S. is likely to be very small.

A web-based contingent behavior analysis was developed to quantify the effect of both negative and positive information treatments and post harvest processes on demand for oysters. Results from a panel model indicate that consumers of raw and cooked oysters behave differently after news of an oyster-related human mortality. While cooked oyster consumers take precautionary measures against risk, raw oyster consumers exhibit optimistic bias and increase their consumption level. Further, by varying the source of a counter-information treatment, we find that source credibility impacts behavior. Oyster consumers, and in particular, raw oyster consumers, are most responsive to information provided by a not-for-profit, nongovernmental organization. Finally, post harvest processing of oysters has no impact on demand.

A four equation input demand system for aggregate Southeastern United States agriculture consistent with dynamic optimizing behavior is specified and estimated. Labor and materials are considered as variable inputs while land and capital are treated as quasi-fixed inputs. It is found that the adjustment rates for capital and land differ considerably and are interdependent. Further, the data appear consistent with the existence of an aggregate production technology and the hypothesized optimizing behavior.

From April 2018 to August 2019, the Yuan has declined in value relative to the US dollar by 12.6%, and the effects of this decline have not been studied. This study analyzes the effects of this fall in Yuan value, in isolation of tariffs, on US, Chinese, and world cotton markets. The results show that the adverse effects of the decline in Yuan value reverberate throughout world cotton markets and exacerbate the detrimental effects of the Chinese cotton tariff.

Exotic aquatic plant management is a major concern for public reservoir management in many regions of the United States. A study was conducted to measure the effects of alternative aquatic plant management strategies on recreational expenditures and regional economic activity. The study area was Lake Guntersville, Alabama, and the local economy surrounding the lake. Lake Guntersville is one of the largest reservoirs in the Tennessee Valley Authority system. Results suggested that relatively moderate levels of aquatic plant control are associated with the highest levels of recreation-related economic effects on the economy surrounding Lake Guntersville.

We estimate the demand for imported cotton in China and assess the competitiveness of cotton-exporting countries. Given the assertion that developing countries are negatively affected by U.S. cotton subsidies, our focus is the price competition between the United States and competing exporters (Benin, Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, India, and Uzbekistan). We further project how U.S. programs affect China's imports by country. Results indicate that if U.S. subsidies make other exporting countries worse off, this effect is lessened when global prices respond accordingly. If subsidies are eliminated, China's cotton imports may not fully recover from the temporary spike in global prices.

Many agricultural producers face cash price distributions that are effectively truncated at a lower limit through participation in farm programs designed to support farm prices and incomes. For example, the 1996 Federal Agricultural Improvement Act (FAIR) makes many producers eligible to obtain marketing loans which truncate their cash price realization at the loan rate, while allowing market prices to freely equilibrate supply and demand. This paper studies the effects of truncated cash price distributions on the optimal use of futures and options. The results show that truncation in the cash price distribution facing an individual producer provides incentives to trade options as well as futures. We derive optimal futures and options trading rules under a range of different truncation scenarios. Empirical results highlight the impacts of basis risk and yield risk on the optimal futures and options portfolio.

Estimation of the demand function for area resources is a major concern of many regional economic analyses. Resource demand is dependent upon several variables, including the nature of demand for the products, supply of other inputs, degree of substitutability of inputs, the time period available for adjustment, and market structure. A major problem is how to explicitly consider these important variables in a reasonable manner with limited research means. This paper reports the application of one approach, a regional linear programming allocation model for California, to the derivation of demand for irrigation water as a productive input to agriculture in one developing subregion – the West Side of the San Joaquin Valley.