Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-t7czq Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-24T11:30:25.476Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Third-Country Effects on the Market Shares of U.S. Wheat in Asian Countries

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  28 April 2015

Hyun J. Jin ,
Guedae Cho  and
Won W. Koo
Hyun J. Jin
Affiliation:
Center for Agricultural Policy and Trade Studies, Department of Agribusiness & Applied Economics, North Dakota State University, Fargo, ND
Guedae Cho
Affiliation:
Center for Agricultural Policy and Trade Studies, Department of Agribusiness & Applied Economics, North Dakota State University, Fargo, ND
Won W. Koo
Affiliation:
Center for Agricultural Policy and Trade Studies, Department of Agribusiness & Applied Economics, North Dakota State University, Fargo, ND
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

An import demand model, augmented with third-country effect variables, is developed to examine the effects of strong U.S. dollar, volatility of the U.S. dollar, and competition among the exporting countries on the shares of U.S. wheat in Asian markets. In the empirical model, the dependent variable is the market shares of U.S. wheat. Explanatory variables include wheat prices of exporting countries, exchange rates between the importing and exporting countries, and volatilities of the exchange rates. Panel estimation results show that the U.S. currency value and volatility, Australian wheat price, and the volatilities of Canadian and Australian currency values have significant effects on U.S. market shares.

Keywords

exchange rateinternational grain trademarket sharepanel analysispanel unit-root testthird country effectF14Q17
Type
Articles
Information
Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics , Volume 36 , Issue 3 , December 2004 , pp. 797 - 813
Copyright
Copyright © Southern Agricultural Economics Association 2004

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Asseery, A., and Peel, D.A.. “The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Exports.” Economics Letters 37(1991):173–77.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bahmani-Oskooee, M., and Ltaifa, N.. “Effects of Exchange Rate Risk on Exports: Cross-country Analysis.” World Development 20-8(1992):1173–81.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Baldwin, R., and Krugman, P.. “Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchange Rate Shocks.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 104(1989):635–55.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Baldwin, R., and Lyons, R.. “Exchange Rate Hysteresis?: Large versus Small Policy Misalignments.” European Economic Review 38(1994):1–22.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Baltagi, B.H.Econometric Analysis of Panel Data. West Sussex, England: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., 1995.Google Scholar
Blanchard, O.J. “Comment.” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 5(1987):449–51.Google Scholar
Bollerslev, T. “Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity.” Journal of Econometrics 31(1986):307–27.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Breusch, TS., and Pagan, A.R.. “The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Application to Model Specification in Econometrics.” The Review of Economic Studies 47,1(1980):239–53.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Buse, A. “Goodness of Fit in Generalized Least Squares Estimation.” American Statistician 27(1973):106–08.Google Scholar
Chowdhury, A.R. “Does Exchange Rate Volatility Depress Trade Flows? Evidence from Error-Correction Models.” Review of Economics and Statistics 75,4(1993):700–06.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Conlisk, J. “When Collinearity is Desirable.” Western Economic Journal 9(1971):393–407.Google Scholar
Cushman, D.O. “The Effects of Real Exchange Rate Risk on International Trade.” Journal of International Economics 15(1983):45–63.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cushman, D.O. “Has Exchange Risk Depressed International Trade? The Impact of Third-Country Exchange Risk.” Journal of International Money and Finance 5(1986):361–79.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cushman, D.O. “U.S. Bilateral Trade Flows and Exchange Rate Risk During the Floating Period.” Journal of International Economics 24(1988):317–30.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
De Grauwe, P. “Exchange Rate Variability and the Slow-down in Growth of International Trade.” IMF Staff Papers 35(1988):63–88.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dornbusch, R. “Exchange Rates Economics:1986.” Economic Journal 79(1987):1–8.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Engle, R.E “Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of Inflation U.K.” Econometrica 50(1982):987–1008.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fisher, R.A.. Statistical Methods for Research Workers. 4th ed., Edinburgh: Oliver & Boyd, 1932.Google Scholar
Frankel, J.A. “Recent Exchange-Rate Experience and Proposals for Reform.” American Economic Review 86(1996):153–58.Google Scholar
Frankel, J.A., and K, A.. Rose. “A Panel Project on Purchasing Power Parity: Mean Reversion Within and Between Countries.” Journal of International Economics 40(1996):209–24.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fuller, W.A., and Battese, G.E.. “Estimation of Linear Models with Crossed-Error Structure.” Journal of Econometrics 2(1974):67–78.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Greene, WH.Econometric Analysis. 3rd ed., New-Jersey: Prentice-Hall, 1997.Google Scholar
Hausman, J.A. “Specification Tests in Econometrics.” Econometrica 46,6(1978):1251–71.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hooper, P., and Kohlhagen, S.W.. “The Effects of Floating Exchange Rate Uncertainty on the Prices and Volume of International Trade.” Journal of International Economics 8(1978):483–511.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hsieh, D.A. “Testing for Nonlinear Dependence in Daily Foreign Exchange Rate Changes.” Journal of Business 62(1989):339–68.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
International Grains Council. World Grain Statistics. London: International Grains Council, 1973/1974-2000/2001.Google Scholar
Kenen, P.B., and Rodrik, D.. “Measuring and Analyzing the Effects of Short-Term Volatility in Real Exchange Rates.” The Review of Economics and Statistics 68(1986):311–15.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Koray, E, and Lastrapes, W.D.. “Real Exchange Rate Volatility and U.S. Bilateral Trade: A VAR Approach.” The Review of Economics and Statistics 71(1989):708–12.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Krugman, PR.Exchange-Rate Instability. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1989.Google Scholar
Langley, S.V., Giugale, M., Meyers, W.H., and Hallahan, C.. “International Financial Volatility and Agricultural Commodity Trade: A Primer.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 82(2000):695–700.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levin, A., and Lin, C.E. “Unit Root Test in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties.” Discussion Paper 92-93. La Jolla: University of California at San Diego, 1992.Google Scholar
Lothian, J.R., and Taylor, M.P.. “Real Exchange Rate Behavior: The Recent Float from the Perspective of the Past Two Centuries.” Journal of Political Economy 104(1996):488–509.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Maddala, G.S., and Wu, S.. “A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and A New Simple Test.” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Special Issue (1999):631–52.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McCurdy, T.H., and Morgan, I.. “Testing the Martingale Hypothesis in Deutsche Mark Futures with Models Specifying the Form of Heteroskedasticity.” Journal of Applied Econometrics 3(1988):187–202.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
MacDonald, R. “Panel Unit Root Tests and Real Exchange Rates.” Economics Letters 50(1996):7–11.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McKinnon, R.I.The Rules of the Game: International Money and Exchange Rates. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1996.Google Scholar
Mundell, R.A. “A Reconsideration of the Twentieth Century.” American Economic Review 90(2000):327–40.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Papeli, D.H. “Searching for Stationarity: Purchasing Power Parity under the Current Float.” Journal of International Economics 43(1997):313–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Papeli, D.H. “The Great Appreciation, the Great Depreciation, and the Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis.” Journal of International Economics 57(2002):51–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Parks, R.W. “Efficient Estimation of a System of Regression Equations when Distributions Are Both Serially and Contemporaneously Correlated.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 62(1967):500–09.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pick, D.H. “Exchange Rate Risk and U.S. Agricultural Trade Flows.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 72(1990):694–700.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pozo, S. “Conditional Exchange-Rate Volatility and the Volume of International Trade: Evidence from the Early 1900s.” The Review of Economics and Statistics 74,2(1992):325–29.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rogoff, K. “The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle.” Journal of Economic Literature 34(1996):647–68.Google Scholar
Silvey, S. “Multicollinearity and Imprecise Estimation.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B31 (1969):539–52.Google Scholar
Taylor, M.P, and Sarno, L.. “The Behavior of Real Exchange Rates during the Post-Bretton Woods Period.” Journal of International Economics 46(1998):281–312.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
U.S. Department of Agriculture. Agricultural Exchange Rate Data Set. Washington D.C: Economic Research Service, 2002.Google Scholar
U.S. Department of Agriculture. Dataset of Foreign Agricultural Trade of the United States. Washington D.C: Foreign Agricultural Service, 2002.Google Scholar
U.S. Department of Agriculture. Wheat Yearbooks. Washington D.C: Economic Research Service, 2002.Google Scholar
U.S. Department of Agriculture. World Agricultural Trade Flow. Washington D.C: Foreign Agricultural Service, 2001.Google Scholar
Wu, Y. “Are Real Exchange Rates Nonstationary? Evidence from a Panel-Data Test.” Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 28,1(1996):54–63.CrossRefGoogle Scholar