This article examines the ends to which technology are employed in the office practice of medicine. It argues that the types of decisions technology supports are of greater impact on how medicine is practiced over the long view than the actual technologies themselves. The more relevant the technologies are to the effectiveness of diagnosis and treatment, the more they drive the practice of medicine toward a standard endeavor. Similarly, technologies that make existing tests and procedures more efficient often reduce the skill level that is needed to provide care. The results of these forces coupled with the increasing administrative, economic, and regulating pressures lead to a diminished role for physicians unless a conscious effort is made to introduce technologies that enhance their unique and discretionary work with patients.

Frequently, health care decisions must be made before compelling and unequivocal evidence is available about the benefits, risks, and costs of a proposed new health technology. It is common for decision makers to seek the advice and opinions of experts to supplement the available evidence. This article reviews some of the methods used or recommended for eliciting the opinions of experts about uncertain events and for combining these opinions with those of others and with available empirical evidence.

Once the effects of short-term data analysis of new medical technology appear clear, additional or long-term analyses are infrequently performed on subsequent information. This often leads to incomplete understanding of the technology's full medical, social, and economic effects.

Available data for the Federal Republic of Germany on mortality, hospitalization, and work loss due to gastric and duodenal ulcer and gastritis/duodenitis allowed long-term analysis of direct and indirect impacts on the population from 1975 through 1984. Mortality rates declined for all ages (ρ ≤ 0.01) except for those age 75 and older, and nearly equally for all study diagnoses. Hospital discharge rates for all diagnoses rose slowly and steadily, while those for persons diagnosed with gastric ulcer, duodenal ulcer or gastritis/duodenitis declined sharply (ρ = 0.04). Declines of hospital discharges were greater for men than for women. The ongoing decline in rates of mortality and hospital discharges increased after 1977. Rates of work loss per 10,000 population-at-risk for study diagnoses were either stable or increasing until 1979, after which there was a marked decline (ρ = 0.03 for gastric ulcer, ρ = 0.02 for duodenal ulcer, ρ = 0.008 for gastritis/duodenitis). Work loss due to study diseases declined as a percentage of work loss for all diseases during the later study years. Only by examining many years' data could the accelerating declines be discerned, not only for mortality and hospitalizations, which have been examined before, but also for work loss, an infrequently analyzed effect of disease.

This article reviews nonexperimental data bases, emphasizing the present uses and future opportunities of routinely collected information. Data bases are discussed in terms of appropriate research designs. Possibilities for expanding available information through new data collection and through record linkage are stressed. The relationship of nonexperimental data systems to randomized trials and to clinical decision-making is examined.

This article studies the issues surrounding the assessment of several home diagnostic tests. First, the authors review the current data and proper use of fecal occult blood and pregnancy tests. Second, they evaluate the roles of blood and urine glucose monitoring in the management of diabetes mellitus and home pressure monitoring in the management of hypertension. The authors conclude that while home measurement of blood pressure or blood sugar can be recommended to improve compliance with medical programs, home fecal occult blood testing, while helpful, has not been fully investigated.

The development and diffusion of health-related technologies constitute an extremely complex process. This article examines the phenomenon of technological innovation; discusses the factors determining the diffusion of high, medium, and low technologies; and suggests strategies for controlling the diffusion of these technologies. A research program is also proposed that should improve our understanding of the process of development and diffusion of health-related technologies.

Many would agree on the need to inform patients about the risks of medical conditions or treatments and to consider those risks in making medical decisions. The question is how to describe the risks and how to balance them with other factors in arriving at a decision. In this article, we present the thesis that part of the answer lies in defining an appropriate scale for risks that are often quite small. We propose that a convenient unit in which to measure most medical risks is the microprobability, a probability of 1 in 1 million. When the risk consequence is death, we can define a micromort as one microprobability of death. Medical risks can be placed in perspective by noting that we live in a society where people face about 270 micromorts per year from interactions with motor vehicles.

Continuing risks or hazards, such as are posed by following unhealthful practices or by the side-effects of drugs, can be described in the same micromort framework. If the consequence is not death, but some other serious consequence like blindness or amputation, the microrisk structure can be used to characterize the probability of disability.

Once the risks are described in the microrisk form, they can be evaluated in terms of the patient's willingness-to-pay to avoid them. The suggested procedure is illustrated in the case of a woman facing a cranial arteriogram of a suspected arterio-venous malformation. Generic curves allow such analyses to be performed approximately in terms of the patient's sex, age, and economic situation. More detailed analyses can be performed if desired.

Microrisk analysis is based on the proposition that precision in language permits the soundness of thought that produces clarity of action and peace of mind.

Utilities and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) are reviewed, with particular focus on their use in technology assessment. This article provides a broad overview and perspective on these two techniques and their interrelationship, with reference to other sources for details of implementation. The historical development, assumptions, strengths/weaknesses, and applications of each are summarized.

Utilities are specifically designed for individual decision-making under uncertainty, but, with additional assumptions, utilities can be aggregated across individuals to provide a group utility function. QALYs are designed to aggregate in a single summary measure the total health improvement for a group of individuals, capturing improvements from impacts on both quantity of life and quality of life– with quality of life broadly defined. Utilities can be used as the quality-adjustment weights for QALYs; they are particularly appropriate for that purpose, and this combination provides a powerful and highly useful variation on cost-effectiveness analysis known as cost-utility analysis.

The North Slope Borough (NSB) Telehealth Project involves the use of slowscan (freeze-frame video) and telephone communications between 7 small villages, a central 14-bed hospital, and a large urban hospital over 700 air miles away. The project is intended to improve the quality of health care in this remote rural area in northernmost Alaska. This article describes the initial testing stages of the project and discusses applications for use of this technology. It focuses on the technological potentials for bridging cultural and linguistic differences between health care provider and client and from provider to provider for enhanced primary health care.

We evaluated trends in the use of echocardiography among residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota, from January 1, 1975, through June 30, 1987. Annual examinations per 100,000 population among Olmsted County residents increased 6-fold from 264 in 1975 to 1,644 in 1986. Given the pattern of echo use in Olmsted County, these population-based data project a potential annual utilization of 4 million echo exams in the United States. Marked increases over time in labeling of patients with regurgitant valvular heart disease were noted following the introduction of Doppler echocardiography. The diagnostic labeling associated with this evolving technology and the resultant apparent epidemic of valvular regurgitation present a significant clinical technology assessment dilemma.

At present there is no definitive test for appendicitis and no clear set of signs and symptoms, so that diagnosis is uncertain and probabilistic. A computer model for analyzing clinical data can improve physician accuracy in diagnosing appendicitis by assessing the outcome probabilities associated with the treatment options. Should a definitive test become available, the computer model will aid clinicians in determining when to test. Once our proposed model has been validated, it will not only improve physician decision-making, but also provide quality assurance feedback, generate reports for documentation, and compile a data base of many cases for study and reference.

Genetic diagnostic techniques increasingly permit the detection of predisposition to illness long before the onset of the disease process itself. Medicine is on the verge of becoming a predictive science as well as a diagnostic and therapeutic one. Genetic diagnosis could have profound effects on many aspects of our health care system, including the prestige and effectiveness of preventive medicine, the competitive behavior of health care organizations and insurance companies, access to private health insurance, the ability of primary care physicians to serve as gatekeepers, and other matters. This article examines the range of potential effects of the new genetic diagnostics on the organization and financing of health care. For purposes of illustration the authors examine in detail the possible consequences of genetic tests for predisposition to two diseases: Reye's Syndrome and lung cancer in smokers.

This article surveys the gradual diffusion of diagnostic technologies into homes in Sweden. The author speculates on the advantages and prospective problems of home care. In addition, the article proposes some general guides to assure that new technologies provide genuine benefits for the patient.

Decision-making in medicine is a very complex process that demands input both from the doctor and from the client. From the doctor's point of view, the most important component for this decision concerns the quality of evidence available that the recommended intervention is the best available in terms of both cost and benefit. Good quality evidence demands good quality science. The randomized controlled trial is the expression of this scientific process at work within medical practice. This article reviews both the rationale and the ethics of randomized controlled trials in the epistemology of surgery. The ethical dilemma is accentuated because surgery by its very nature is invasive and often irreversible. As an illustration of the scientific and ethical dilemmas arising out of randomized controlled trials in surgery, a description of the CEA directed second-look laparotomy trial in the United Kingdom is provided. This trial may be judged essential because of the clash of attitudes between surgeons in the United States and the United Kingdom. It is unlikely that the truth lies entirely with one or other national groupings of surgeons, and this randomized trial will eventually resolve a conflict of ideas to the ultimate benefit of all patients with operable colorectal cancer.

Chorionic villus sampling (CVS), a new technique for prenatally diagnosing chromosomal and genetic disorders, may soon replace amniocentesis. This procedure, performed by inserting a catheter through the pregnant woman's cervix or through the abdomen and removing cells from the placenta, has the advantages of being available earlier in the pregnancy than amniocentesis (at 9 to 11 weeks gestational age) and of yielding results in a shorter time. Although the medical aspects of the procedure are being investigated, its psychosocial and policy implications have not been studied systematically. These issues include the subjective assessment of risk that prompts women to choose or to reject CVS, the implications of earlier diagnosis for feelings about abortion, the potential of negative findings (i.e., the absence of the designated disorder) for well-being during the remainder of the pregnancy, the ramifications of first trimester identification of fetal sex, equity of access to prenatal diagnosis, and the possible over- utilization of these procedures. Drawing on previous research regarding amniocentesis and more recent research concerning CVS, this article discusses the potential implications of CVS.

A rapidly growing interest in medical technology assessment has been noted in Sweden during the last 5 years. This interest is reflected both in a variety of research efforts and in new organizational arrangements for coordination and stimulus of research. A special area of concern is a group of mechanisms to make the results of assessment useful to medical practitioners and in the political and administrative process within health care.

Since 1982, the Medical Research Council of the Academy of Finland, together with other interested parties, has tried to develop systematically the evaluation research of medical technology. The broadly based working group set up by the Council is preparing a program dealing with this issue to promote research work and the training of researchers. The arrangement of consensus development conferences, held on various topics in many countries, is another means of reaching these goals. In Finland, the arrangement of such conferences has been the responsibility of the Medical Research Council.

Physicians through the ages have practiced their trade with more or less regard to the effects of their treatment on their patients' sense of well-being, if not as much as on the disease itself.

Until recently, however, little attempt has been made to measure the effect of disease upon quality of life and how this quality is or is not improved by the treatment. Several means have now evolved and in areas of medicine where the treatment may profoundly affect the patient's sense of well-being, effort is being made to gauge these consequences.

The use of computers in primary care in the United Kingdom has developed without coordination. The present situation is described. The proposal is that policies for improving primary care will be enhanced by appropriate application of information technology. Benefits and obstacles are identified; practical proposals for effective development are listed.

The differences in survival rates of colon cancer patients between hospital districts were used as an indicator of equity in cancer treatment in Finland. The merits of two different assessment methods were evaluated. The large variation was mainly due to confounding by age and the extent of the disease and to random variation.