Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-dlnhk Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-30T19:36:05.645Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

What Affects Invalid Voting? A Review and Meta-Analysis

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  29 October 2018

Abstract

Research on invalid voting has expanded rapidly over the past few years. This review article for the first time examines its principal findings and provides a new theoretical perspective on the origins of invalid votes based on a two-dimensional framework. The main results of 54 studies using both individual-level and aggregate-level data as well as the results of experimental and qualitative studies are analysed. The meta-analysis of all existing aggregate-level studies finds that compulsory voting, quality of democracy, fragmentation and closeness of the electoral race play important roles in explaining invalid voting. On the other hand, the research is accompanied by many theoretical and empirical contradictions that hamper the accumulation of knowledge in this field. We therefore conclude by suggesting the challenges for future research.

Type
Review Article
Copyright
© The Author(s). Published by Government and Opposition Limited and Cambridge University Press 2018 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

*

Karel Kouba is Assistant Professor in the Department of Politics at the University of Hradec Králové, Czech Republic. Contact email: [email protected]

Jakub Lysek is a Researcher in the Department of Politics and European Studies at Palacký University Olomouc, Czech Republic. Contact email: [email protected]

References

Ackaert, J., Wauters, B. and Verlet, D. (2011), ‘Turnout at Local Elections: The Relevance of Contextual Variables’, paper presented at Politicologenetmaal, Amsterdam, 9–10 June, http://hdl.handle.net/1854/LU-2134778.Google Scholar
Aldashev, G. and Mastrobuoni, G. (2013), ‘Invalid Ballots and Electoral Competition’, Carlo Alberto Notebooks, 153: 139.Google Scholar
Almond, G. and Verba, S. (1963), The Civic Culture: Political Attitudes and Democracy in Five Nations (Princeton: Princeton University Press).Google Scholar
Ambrus, A., Greiner, B. and Sastro, A. (2015), ‘The Case for Nil Votes: Voter Behavior Under Asymmetric Information in Compulsory and Voluntary Voting Systems’, Journal of Public Economics, 154: 3448.Google Scholar
Arbache, G., Freire, D. and Rodrigues, P. (2014), ‘Invalid Votes, Political Efficacy and Lack of Preferences in Brazil Elections’, paper presented at IPSA, Montreal, http://paperroom.ipsa.org/papers/paper_36099.pdf.Google Scholar
Ananta, A., Arifin, E.N. and Suryadinata, L. (2005), Emerging Democracy in Indonesia (Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies).Google Scholar
Berry, W.D., Golder, M. and Milton, D. (2012), ‘Improving Tests of Theories Positing Interaction’, Journal of Politics, 71(3): 119.Google Scholar
Birch, S. and van Ham, C. (2017), ‘Getting Away with Foul Play? The Importance of Formal and Informal Oversight for Electoral Integrity’, European Journal of Political Research, 56(3): 487511.Google Scholar
Beltrán-Oicatá, C. and Sandoval-Escobar, M. (2015), ‘Efecto de la capacitación y el diseño del tarjetón sobre la comprensión y la validez del voto’, Universitas Psychologica, 14(3): 10671076.Google Scholar
Borba, J. (2008), ‘As bases sociais e atitudinais da alienação eleitoral no Brasil’, Revista Debates, 2(2): 134157.Google Scholar
Carlin, R.E. (2006), ‘The Decline of Citizen Participation in Electoral Politics in Post-Authoritarian Chile’, Democratization, 13(4): 632651.Google Scholar
Carman, C., Mitchell, J. and Johns, R. (2008), ‘The Unfortunate Natural Experiment in Ballot Design: The Scottish Parliamentary Elections of 2007’, Electoral Studies, 27(3): 442459.Google Scholar
Christensen, H.S. (2016), ‘All the Same? Examining the Link between Three Kinds of Political Dissatisfaction and Protest’, Comparative European Politics, 14(6): 781801.Google Scholar
Cisneros, G.Y. (2013), ‘Movilización, escolaridad y voto nulo: la elección federal de 2009 en México’, Política y gobierno, 20(1): 3978.Google Scholar
Cisneros, G.Y. (2016), ‘El perfil del votante anulista en la elección federal de 2009 en México: independencia partidista y movilidad cognitiva’, Colombia Internacional, 86: 5180.Google Scholar
Cisneros, G.Y. and Freigedo, M. (2014), ‘¿Protesta o cambio institucional? Determinantes del voto nulo y blanco en las elecciones departamentales de 2010 en Uruguay en perspectiva comparada’, Revista Iberoamericana de Estudios Municipales, 8: 241274.Google Scholar
Cohen, M.J. (2016), ‘The Causes and Representative Consequences of Invalid Voting in Latin America’, PhD dissertation, Vanderbilt University.Google Scholar
Cohen, M.J. (2017), ‘Protesting via the Null Ballot: An Assessment of the Decision to Cast an Invalid Vote in Latin America’, Political Behavior, 40(2): 395414.Google Scholar
Cohen, M.J. (2018), ‘A Dynamic Model of the Invalid Vote: How a Changing Candidate Menu Shapes Null Voting Behavior’, Electoral Studies, 53: 111121.Google Scholar
Cribb, R. (1984), ‘Elections in Jakarta’, Asian Survey, 24(6): 655664.Google Scholar
Dalton, R.J. (2004), Democratic Challenges, Democratic Choices: The Erosion of Political Support in Advanced Industrial Democracies (Oxford: Oxford University Press).Google Scholar
Damore, D.F., Waters, M.M. and Bowler, S. (2012), ‘Unhappy, Uninformed, or Uninterested? Understanding “None of the Above” Voting’, Political Research Quarterly, 65(4): 895907.Google Scholar
Dejaeghere, Y. and Vanhoutte, B. (2016), ‘Virtuous Villages and Sinful Cities? A Spatial Analysis into the Effects of Community Characteristics on Turnout and Blank/Invalid Voting in Local elections in Belgium 2006–2012’, Acta Politica, 51(1): 80101.Google Scholar
De Paola, M. and Scoppa, V. (2014), ‘The Impact of Closeness on Electoral Participation Exploiting the Italian Double Ballot System’, Public Choice, 160(3–4): 467479.Google Scholar
Domínguez, J.I., Galvis, Á.F. and Superti, C. (2017), ‘Authoritarian Regimes and Their Permitted Oppositions: Election Day Outcomes in Cuba’, Latin American Politics and Society, 59(2): 2752.Google Scholar
Downs, A. (1957), An Economic Theory of Democracy (New York: Harper).Google Scholar
Driscoll, A. and Nelson, M.J. (2014), ‘Ignorance or Opposition? Blank and Spoiled Votes in Low-Information, Highly Politicized Environments’, Political Research Quarterly, 67(3): 547561.Google Scholar
Easton, D. (1965), A Systems Analysis of Political Life (New York: Wiley).Google Scholar
Fatke, M. and Heinsohn, T. (2017), ‘Invalid Voting in German Constituencies’, German Politics, 26(2): 273291.Google Scholar
Fornos, C.A., Power, T.J. and Garand, J.C. (2004), ‘Explaining Voter Turnout in Latin America, 1980 to 2000’, Comparative Political Studies, 37(8): 909940.Google Scholar
Franklin, M.N. (1999), ‘Electoral Engineering and Cross-National Turnout Differences: What Role for Compulsory Voting?’, British Journal of Political Science, 29(1): 205224.Google Scholar
Franklin, M.N. (2004), Voter Turnout and the Dynamics of Electoral Competition in Established Democracies Since 1945 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press).Google Scholar
Galatas, S. (2008), ‘“None of the Above?” Casting Blank Ballots in Ontario Provincial Elections’, Politics and Policy, 36(3): 448473.Google Scholar
Gendźwiłł, A. (2015), ‘Skąd się biorą głosy nieważne w wyborach do sejmików województw?’, Studia Socjologiczne, 4(219): 3357.Google Scholar
Gerber, A.S., Green, D.P. and Larimer, C.W. (2008), ‘Social Pressure and Voter Turnout: Evidence from a Large-Scale Field Experiment’, American Political Science Review, 102(1): 3348.Google Scholar
Gerring, J. (2001), Social Science Methodology: A Criterial Framework (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press).Google Scholar
Gessler, T. (2017), ‘The 2016 Referendum in Hungary’, East European Quarterly, 45(1–2): 8597.Google Scholar
Gilison, J.M. (1968), ‘Soviet Elections as a Measure of Dissent: The Missing One Percent’, American Political Science Review, 62(3): 814826.Google Scholar
Giugăl, A. and Ogaru, R.M. (2013), ‘Invalid Votes Dynamics in Central and Eastern Europe’, Studia Politica: Romanian Political Science Review, 13(3): 441455.Google Scholar
Gougou, F. and Persico, S. (2017), ‘A New Party System in the Making? The 2017 French Presidential Election’, French Politics, 15(3): 303321.Google Scholar
Herron, E.S. (2010), ‘The Effect of Passive Observation Methods on Azerbaijan’s 2008 Presidential Election and 2009 Referendum’, Electoral Studies, 29(3): 417424.Google Scholar
Herron, E.S. (2011a), ‘Measuring Dissent in Electoral Authoritarian Societies: Lessons from Azerbaijan’s 2008 Presidential Election and 2009 Referendum’, Comparative Political Studies, 44(11): 15571583.Google Scholar
Herron, E.S. (2011b), ‘How Viktor Yanukovych Won: Reassessing the Dominant Narratives of Ukraine’s 2010 Presidential Election’, East European Politics and Societies, 25(1): 4767.Google Scholar
Herron, M.C. and Sekhon, J.S. (2005), ‘Black Candidates and Black Voters: Assessing the Impact of Candidate Race on Uncounted Vote Rates’, Journal of Politics, 67(1): 154177.Google Scholar
Hibbing, J.R. and Theiss-Morse, E. (2002 ), Stealth Democracy: Americans’ Beliefs about How Government Should Work (New York: Cambridge University Press).Google Scholar
Hill, L. and Rutledge-Prior, S. (2016), ‘Young People and Intentional Informal Voting in Australia’, Australian Journal of Political Science, 51(3): 400417.Google Scholar
Hill, L. and Young, S. (2007), ‘Protest or Error? Informal Voting and Compulsory Voting’, Australian Journal of Political Science, 42(3): 515521.Google Scholar
Hirczy, W. (1994), ‘The Impact of Mandatory Voting Laws on Turnout: A Quasi-Experimental Approach’, Electoral Studies, 13(1): 6476.Google Scholar
Hooghe, M., Mariën, S. and Pauwels, T. (2009), ‘Where Do Distrusting Voters Go to if There Is No Exit or Voice Option? The Impact of Political Trust on Party Choice in the Belgian Regional Elections of June, 2009’, paper presented at the Fifth ECPR General Conference.Google Scholar
Hooghe, M., Mariën, S. and Pauwels, T. (2011), ‘Where Do Distrusting Voters Turn if There Is No Viable Exit or Voice Option? The Impact of Political Trust on Electoral Behaviour in the Belgian Regional Elections of June 2009’, Government and Opposition: An International Journal of Comparative Politics, 46(2): 245273.Google Scholar
Ibarzabal, N. and Laruelle, A. (2018), ‘Ghost Seats in Parliaments’, European Journal of Operational Research, 264(1): 354363.Google Scholar
Jackman, R.W. (1987), ‘Political Institutions and Voter Turnout in the Industrial Democracies’, American Political Science Review, 81(2): 405424.Google Scholar
Jackman, R.W. and Miller, R.A. (1995), ‘Voter Turnout in the Industrial Democracies during the 1980s’, Comparative Political Studies, 27(4): 467492.Google Scholar
Katz, G. and Levin, I. (2016), ‘A General Model of Abstention Under Compulsory Voting’, Political Science Research and Methods, 6(3): 489508.Google Scholar
Kimball, D.C. and Kropf, M. (2005), ‘Ballot Design and Unrecorded Votes on Paper-Based Ballots’, Public Opinion Quarterly, 69(4): 508529.Google Scholar
King, D.Y. (1994), The White Book on the 1992 General Election in Indonesia (Jakarta: Equinox Publishing).Google Scholar
Kostadinova, T. and Power, T.J. (2007), ‘Does Democratization Depress Participation? Voter Turnout in the Latin American and Eastern European Transitional Democracies’, Political Research Quarterly, 60(3): 363377.Google Scholar
Kouba, K. and Lysek, J. (2016), ‘Institutional Determinants of Invalid Voting in Post-Communist Europe and Latin America’, Electoral Studies, 41: 92104.Google Scholar
Levitsky, S. and Murillo, M.V. (2008), ‘Argentina: From Kirchner to Kirchner’, Journal of Democracy, 19(2): 1630.Google Scholar
Lijphart, A. (1997), ‘Unequal Participation: Democracy’s Unresolved Dilemma’, American Political Science Review, 91(1): 114.Google Scholar
Losada, R. (2006), ‘Implicaciones electorales de la reinserción política de las autodefensas en Colombia’, Papel Politico, 11(1): 1146.Google Scholar
Mackerras, M. and McAllister, I. (1999), ‘Compulsory Voting, Party Stability and Electoral Advantage in Australia’, Electoral Studies, 18(2): 217233.Google Scholar
Mahoney, J. and Goertz, G. (2006), ‘A Tale of Two Cultures: Contrasting Quantitative and Qualitative Research’, Political Analysis, 14(3): 227249.Google Scholar
Manning, C. (2010), ‘Mozambique’s Slide into One-Party Rule’, Journal of Democracy, 21(2): 151165.Google Scholar
McAdam, D. and Tarrow, S. (2010), ‘Ballots and Barricades: On the Reciprocal Relationship Between Elections and Social Movements’, Perspectives on Politics, 8(2): 529542.Google Scholar
McAllister, I. and Makkai, T. (1993), ‘Institutions, Society or Protest? Explaining Invalid Votes in Australian Elections’, Electoral Studies, 12(1): 2340.Google Scholar
McAllister, I. and White, S. (2008), ‘Voting “Against All” in Postcommunist Russia’, Europe-Asia Studies, 60(1): 6787.Google Scholar
Mebane, W.R. (2010), ‘Fraud in the 2009 Presidential Election in Iran?’, Chance, 23(1): 615.Google Scholar
Moral, M. (2016), ‘The Passive-Aggressive Voter: The Calculus of Casting an Invalid Vote in European Democracies’, Political Research Quarterly, 69(4): 114.Google Scholar
Mott, R.L. (1926), ‘Invalid Ballots Under the Hare System of Proportional Representation’, American Political Science Review, 20(4): 874882.Google Scholar
Nihuys, D. (2014), ‘Mehr Stimmen gleich bessere demokratische Qualität? Negative Effekte der Komplexität des Wahlrechts auf die Zusammensetzung der Wählerschaft’, Zeitschrift für Politikwissenschaft, 24(3): 255280.Google Scholar
Norris, P. (1999) (ed.), Critical Citizens: Global Support for Democratic Government (Oxford: Oxford University Press).Google Scholar
Norris, P. (2002), Democratic Phoenix: Reinventing Political Activism (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press).Google Scholar
Obradović-Wochnik, J. and Wochnik, A. (2014), ‘Invalid Ballots and the “Crisis of Representative Democracy” 1: Re-inventing Protest at the 2012 Serbian Elections’, East European Politics and Societies, 28(4): 808835.Google Scholar
Pachón, M., Carroll, R. and Barragán, H. (2017), ‘Ballot Design and Invalid Votes: Evidence from Colombia’, Electoral Studies, 48: 98110.Google Scholar
Pehr, M. (2009), ‘Bílé lístky’, Střed: Časopis pro mezioborová studia Střední Evropy 19. a 20. století, 1: 95109.Google Scholar
Pion, G. (2010), ‘Le vote blanc et nul en Wallonie: analyse écologique et individuelle’, Belgeo, 3: 249264.Google Scholar
Power, T.J. and Garand, J.C. (2007), ‘Determinants of Invalid Voting in Latin America’, Electoral Studies, 26(2): 432444.Google Scholar
Power, T.J. and Roberts, J.T. (1995), ‘Compulsory Voting, Invalid Ballots, and Abstention in Brazil’, Political Research Quarterly, 48(4): 795826.Google Scholar
Reynolds, A. and Steenbergen, M. (2006), ‘How the World Votes: The Political Consequences of Ballot Design, Innovation and Manipulation’, Electoral Studies, 25(3): 570598.Google Scholar
Riker, W.H. and Ordeshook, P.C. (1968), ‘A Theory of the Calculus of Voting’, American Political Science Review, 62(1): 2542.Google Scholar
Rodríguez-Pose, A. (2018), ‘The Revenge of the Places That Don’t Matter (and What to Do About It)’, Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, 11(1): 189209.Google Scholar
Ronconi, L. and Zarazaga, R. (2015), ‘¿Cada voto cuenta igual? Una medición de irregularidades en los telegramas de la elección presidencial de 2011 en Argentina’, Studia Politicæ, 33: 927.Google Scholar
Rosenthal, H. and Sen, S. (1973), ‘Electoral Participation in the French Fifth Republic’, American Political Science Review, 67: 2954.Google Scholar
Samii, W.A. (2004), ‘Dissent in Iranian Elections: Reasons and Implications’, Middle East Journal, 58(3): 403423.Google Scholar
Singh, S.P. (2017), ‘Politically Unengaged, Distrusting, and Disaffected Individuals Drive the Link Between Compulsory Voting and Invalid Balloting’, Political Science Research and Methods, published early online, April, doi: 10.1017/psrm.2017.11 117.Google Scholar
Śleszyński, P. (2015), ‘Hipotezy głosów nieważnych w wyborach powszechnych w Polsce po 1989 r’, Przestrzeń Społeczna, 2(10): 6090.Google Scholar
Smets, K. and van Ham, C. (2013), ‘The Embarrassment of Riches? A Meta-Analysis of Individual-Level Research on Voter Turnout’, Electoral Studies, 32(2): 116.Google Scholar
Snow, P.G. (1965), ‘Parties and Politics in Argentina: The Elections of 1962 and 1963’, Midwest Journal of Political Science, 9(1): 136.Google Scholar
Socia, K.M. and Brown, E.K. (2014), ‘Up in Smoke: The Passage of Medical Marijuana Legislation and Enactment of Dispensary Moratoriums in Massachusetts’, Crime and Delinquency, 63(5): 569591.Google Scholar
Solvak, M. and Vassil, K. (2015), ‘Indifference or Indignation? Explaining Purposive Vote Spoiling in Elections’, Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, 25(4): 463481.Google Scholar
Stiefbold, R.P. (1965), ‘The Significance of Void Ballots in West German Elections’, American Political Science Review, 59(2): 391407.Google Scholar
Stockemer, D. (2017), ‘What Affects Voter Turnout? A Review Article/Meta-Analysis of Aggregate Research’, Government and Opposition: An International Journal of Comparative Politics, 52(4): 698722.Google Scholar
Stoker, G. (2006), ‘Explaining Political Disenchantment: Finding Pathways to Democratic Renewal’, Political Quarterly, 77(2): 184194.Google Scholar
Superti, C. (2015), ‘Comparing Individual Blank Voting, Mobilized Protest Voting, and Voting Abstention’, PhD dissertation, Harvard University.Google Scholar
Taylor, S.L. (2012), ‘Colombian Voters and Ballot Structure: Error, Confusion, and/or “None of the Above”’, Latin Americanist, 56(4): 111130.Google Scholar
Uggla, F. (2008), ‘Incompetence, Alienation, or Calculation? Explaining Levels of Invalid Ballots and Extra-Parliamentary Votes’, Comparative Political Studies, 41(8): 11411164.Google Scholar
Young, S. and Hill, L. (2009), ‘Uncounted Votes: Informal Voting in the House of Representatives as a Marker of Political Exclusion in Australia’, Australian Journal of Politics and History, 55(1): 6479.Google Scholar
Zulfikarpasic, A. (2001), ‘Le vote blanc: abstention civique ou expresión politique?’, Revue Française de Science Politique, 51(1–2): 247268.Google Scholar