Simulated data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) has been very important for climate science research, as they can provide wide spatio-temporal coverage to address data deficiencies in both present and future scenarios. However, these physics-based models require a huge amount of high-performance computing (HPC) resources. As an alternative approach, researchers are exploring if such simulated data can be generated by Generative Machine Learning models. In this work, we develop a model based on Pix2Pix conditional Generative Adversarial Network (cGAN), which can generate high-resolution spatial maps of global sea surface temperature (SST) using comparatively less computing power and time. We have shown that the maps generated by these models have similar statistical characteristics as the CMIP6 model simulations. Notably, we trained and validated our cGAN model on completely distinct time periods across all ensemble members of the EC-Earth3-CC and CMCC-CM2-SR5 CMIP6 models, demonstrating satisfactory results and confirming the generalizability of our proposed model.

The increasing size and severity of wildfires across the western United States have generated dangerous levels of PM2.5 concentrations in recent years. In a changing climate, expanding the use of prescribed fires is widely considered to be the most robust fire mitigation strategy. However, reliably forecasting the potential air quality impact from prescribed fires, which is critical in planning the prescribed fires’ location and time, at hourly to daily time scales remains a challenging problem. In this paper, we introduce a spatio-temporal graph neural network (GNN)-based forecasting model for hourly PM2.5 predictions across California. Utilizing a two-step approach, we use our forecasting model to predict the net and ambient PM2.5 concentrations, which are used to estimate wildfire contributions. Integrating the GNN-based PM2.5 forecasting model with simulations of historically prescribed fires, we propose a novel framework to forecast their air quality impact. This framework determines that March is the optimal month for implementing prescribed fires in California and quantifies the potential air quality trade-offs involved in conducting more prescribed fires outside the peak of the fire season.

Federal and local agencies have identified a need to create building databases to help ensure that critical infrastructure and residential buildings are accounted for in disaster preparedness and to aid the decision-making processes in subsequent recovery efforts. To respond effectively, we need to understand the built environment—where people live, work, and the critical infrastructure they rely on. Yet, a major discrepancy exists in the way data about buildings are collected across the United SStates There is no harmonization in what data are recorded by city, county, or state governments, let alone at the national scale. We demonstrate how existing open-source datasets can be spatially integrated and subsequently used as training for machine learning (ML) models to predict building occupancy type, a major component needed for disaster preparedness and decision -making. Multiple ML algorithms are compared. We address strategies to handle significant class imbalance and introduce Bayesian neural networks to handle prediction uncertainty. The 100-year flood in North Carolina is provided as a practical application in disaster preparedness.

Prediction of dynamic environmental variables in unmonitored sites remains a long-standing challenge for water resources science. The majority of the world’s freshwater resources have inadequate monitoring of critical environmental variables needed for management. Yet, the need to have widespread predictions of hydrological variables such as river flow and water quality has become increasingly urgent due to climate and land use change over the past decades, and their associated impacts on water resources. Modern machine learning methods increasingly outperform their process-based and empirical model counterparts for hydrologic time series prediction with their ability to extract information from large, diverse data sets. We review relevant state-of-the art applications of machine learning for streamflow, water quality, and other water resources prediction and discuss opportunities to improve the use of machine learning with emerging methods for incorporating watershed characteristics and process knowledge into classical, deep learning, and transfer learning methodologies. The analysis here suggests most prior efforts have been focused on deep learning frameworks built on many sites for predictions at daily time scales in the United States, but that comparisons between different classes of machine learning methods are few and inadequate. We identify several open questions for time series predictions in unmonitored sites that include incorporating dynamic inputs and site characteristics, mechanistic understanding and spatial context, and explainable AI techniques in modern machine learning frameworks.

In this paper, we explore the crucial role and challenges of computational reproducibility in geosciences, drawing insights from the Climate Informatics Reproducibility Challenge (CICR) in 2023. The competition aimed at (1) identifying common hurdles to reproduce computational climate science; and (2) creating interactive reproducible publications for selected papers of the Environmental Data Science journal. Based on lessons learned from the challenge, we emphasize the significance of open research practices, mentorship, transparency guidelines, as well as the use of technologies such as executable research objects for the reproduction of geoscientific published research. We propose a supportive framework of tools and infrastructure for evaluating reproducibility in geoscientific publications, with a case study for the climate informatics community. While the recommendations focus on future CIRCs, we expect they would be beneficial for wider umbrella of reproducibility initiatives in geosciences.

Machine learning models have been used extensively in hydrology, but issues persist with regard to their transparency, and there is currently no identifiable best practice for forcing variables in streamflow or flood modeling. In this paper, using data from the Centre for Ecology & Hydrology’s National River Flow Archive and from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, we present a study that focuses on the input variable set for a neural network streamflow model to demonstrate how certain variables can be internalized, leading to a compressed feature set. By highlighting this capability to learn effectively using proxy variables, we demonstrate a more transferable framework that minimizes sensing requirements and that enables a route toward generalizing models.

Currently, methods for mapping agricultural crops have been predominantly developed for a number of the most important and popular crops. These methods are often based on remote sensing data, scarce information about the location and boundaries of fields of a particular crop, and involve analyzing phenological changes throughout the growing season by utilizing vegetation indices, e.g., the normalized difference vegetation index. However, this approach encounters challenges when attempting to distinguish fields with different crops growing in the same area or crops that share similar phenology. This complicates the reliable identification of the target crops based solely on vegetation index patterns. This research paper aims to investigate the potential of advanced techniques for crop mapping using satellite data and qualitative information. These advanced approaches involve interpreting features in satellite images in conjunction with cartographic, statistical, and climate data. The study focuses on data collection and mapping of three specific crops: lavender, almond, and barley, and relies on various sources of information for crop detection, including satellite image characteristics, regional statistical data detailing crop areas, and phenological information, such as flowering dates and the end of the growing season in specific regions. As an example, the study attempts to visually identify lavender fields in Bulgaria and almond orchards in the USA. We test several state-of-the-art methods for semantic segmentation (U-Net, UNet++, ResUnet). The best result was achieved by a ResUnet model (96.4%). Furthermore, the paper explores how vegetation indices can be leveraged to enhance the precision of crop identification, showcasing their advanced capabilities for this task.

Environmental data science for spatial extremes has traditionally relied heavily on max-stable processes. Even though the popularity of these models has perhaps peaked with statisticians, they are still perceived and considered as the “state of the art” in many applied fields. However, while the asymptotic theory supporting the use of max-stable processes is mathematically rigorous and comprehensive, we think that it has also been overused, if not misused, in environmental applications, to the detriment of more purposeful and meticulously validated models. In this article, we review the main limitations of max-stable process models, and strongly argue against their systematic use in environmental studies. Alternative solutions based on more flexible frameworks using the exceedances of variables above appropriately chosen high thresholds are discussed, and an outlook on future research is given. We consider the opportunities offered by hybridizing machine learning with extreme-value statistics, highlighting seven key recommendations moving forward.

Wind speed at the sea surface is a key quantity for a variety of scientific applications and human activities. For its importance, many observation techniques exist, ranging from in situ to satellite observations. However, none of such techniques can capture the spatiotemporal variability of the phenomenon at the same time. Reanalysis products, obtained from data assimilation methods, represent the state-of-the-art for sea-surface wind speed monitoring but may be biased by model errors and their spatial resolution is not competitive with satellite products. In this work, we propose a scheme based on both data assimilation and deep learning concepts to process spatiotemporally heterogeneous input sources to reconstruct high-resolution time series of spatial wind speed fields. This method allows to us make the most of the complementary information conveyed by the different sea-surface information typically available in operational settings. We use synthetic wind speed data to emulate satellite images, in situ time series and reanalyzed wind fields. Starting from these pseudo-observations, we run extensive numerical simulations to assess the impact of each input source on the model reconstruction performance. We show that our proposed framework outperforms a deep learning–based inversion scheme and can successfully exploit the spatiotemporal complementary information of the different input sources. We also show that the model can learn the possible bias in reanalysis products and attenuate it in the output reconstructions.

Data assimilation is a core component of numerical weather prediction systems. The large quantity of data processed during assimilation requires the computation to be distributed across increasingly many compute nodes; yet, existing approaches suffer from synchronization overhead in this setting. In this article, we exploit the formulation of data assimilation as a Bayesian inference problem and apply a message-passing algorithm to solve the spatial inference problem. Since message passing is inherently based on local computations, this approach lends itself to parallel and distributed computation. In combination with a GPU-accelerated implementation, we can scale the algorithm to very large grid sizes while retaining good accuracy and compute and memory requirements.