This study uses a global climate-energy-economy model to investigate potential implications of linking credits from reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries to a global carbon market, focusing on reducing emissions from deforestation (RED) and effects on energy technology innovation. Integrating RED into a global carbon market lowers the estimated total costs of a policy to achieve 535 ppmv of CO2-equivalent concentrations in 2100 by up to 25 per cent. Alternatively, a global RED program could enable additional reductions of about 20 ppmv by 2100 with no added costs compared with an energy-sector-only policy. The results indicate that market linkage of RED induces modest reductions in clean energy innovation overall but slightly enhances development of particular technologies, including carbon capture and storage. We also find that RED in combination with credit banking encourages greater mitigation in the near term, enhancing flexibility to potentially tighten emission targets at lower cost in response to future information.

Deforestation is one of the major sources of carbon emissions, but the Kyoto Protocol presently excludes avoiding these emissions to fulfill stabilization targets. Since the need for policy incentives for the reduction of emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) was officially recognized in 2007, the focus of this debate has shifted to issues of implementation. Concerns about the effects that the availability of low-cost REDD credits might have on energy investments, and the development of clean technology constitute the main motivation of this paper. We analyze the production side of the problem with the help of a real options model with an option to invest in less carbon-intensive energy technology and an option to purchase credits on REDD, which will (or will not) be exercised in the future. Unresolved questions can thus still be addressed later, while producers and investors hold REDD options to maintain flexibility for later decisions.