Objectives: To describe current syndromic surveillance system response protocols in health departments from 8 diverse states in the United States and to develop a framework for health departments to use as a guide in initial design and/or enhancement of response protocols.

Methods: Case study design that incorporated in-depth interviews with health department staff, textual analysis of response plans, and a Delphi survey of syndromic surveillance response experts.

Results: All 8 states and 30 of the 33 eligible health departments agreed to participate (91% response rate). Fewer than half (48%) of surveyed health departments had a written response protocol, and health departments reported conducting in-depth investigations on fewer than 15% of syndromic surveillance alerts. A convened panel of experts identified 32 essential elements for inclusion in public health protocols for response to syndromic surveillance system alerts.

Conclusions: Because of the lack of guidance, limited resources for development of response protocols, and few examples of syndromic surveillance detecting previously unknown events of public health significance, health departments have not prioritized the development and refinement of response protocols. Systems alone, however, are not effective without an organized public health response. The framework proposed here can guide health departments in creating protocols that will be standardized, tested, and relevant given their goals with such systems. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2009;3(Suppl 1):S29–S36)

Background: The public health response to an influenza pandemic or other large-scale health emergency may include mass prophylaxis using multiple points of dispensing (PODs) to deliver countermeasures rapidly to affected populations. Computer models created to date to determine “optimal” staffing levels at PODs typically assume stable patient demand for service. The authors investigated POD function under dynamic and uncertain operational environments.

Methods: The authors constructed a Monte Carlo simulation model of mass prophylaxis (the Dynamic POD Simulator, or D-PODS) to assess the consequences of nonstationary patient arrival patterns on POD function under a variety of POD layouts and staffing plans. Compared are the performance of a standard POD layout under steady-state and variable patient arrival rates that may mimic real-life variation in patient demand.

Results: To achieve similar performance, PODs functioning under nonstationary patient arrival rates require higher staffing levels than would be predicted using the assumption of stationary arrival rates. Furthermore, PODs may develop severe bottlenecks unless staffing levels vary over time to meet changing patient arrival patterns. Efficient POD networks therefore require command and control systems capable of dynamically adjusting intra- and inter-POD staff levels to meet demand. In addition, under real-world operating conditions of heightened uncertainty, fewer large PODs will require a smaller total staff than many small PODs to achieve comparable performance.

Conclusions: Modeling environments that capture the effects of fundamental uncertainties in public health disasters are essential for the realistic evaluation of response mechanisms and policies. D-PODS quantifies POD operational efficiency under more realistic conditions than have been modeled previously. The authors’ experiments demonstrate that effective POD staffing plans must be responsive to variation and uncertainty in POD arrival patterns. These experiments highlight the need for command and control systems to be created to manage emergency response successfully. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2009;3(Suppl 2):S121–S131)

Background: In August 2005, New Orleans was hit by Hurricane Katrina, the costliest natural disaster in US history. Previous studies have shown an increase in acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in the immediate hours to weeks after natural disasters. The goals of our study were to detect any long-term increase in the incidence of AMI after Katrina and to investigate any pertinent contributing factors.

Methods: This was a single-center retrospective cohort observational study. Patients admitted with AMI to Tulane Health Sciences Center hospital in the 2 years before Katrina and in the 2 years after the hospital reopened (5 months after Katrina) were identified from hospital records. The 2 groups (pre- and post-Katrina) were compared for prespecified demographic and clinical data.

Results: In the post-Katrina group, there were 246 admissions for AMI, out of a total census of 11,282 patients (2.18%), as compared with 150 AMI admissions out of a total of 21,229 patients (0.71%) in the pre-Katrina group (P < 0.0001). The post-Katrina group had a significantly higher prevalence of unemployment (P = 0.0003), lack of medical insurance (P < 0.0001), medication noncompliance (P = 0.0001), smoking (P = 0.001), substance abuse (P = 0.03), first-time hospitalization (P < 0.001), local residents rather than visitors affected (P < 0.0001), and people living in temporary housing (P = 0.003).

Discussion: The role of chronic stress in the pathogenesis of AMI is poorly understood, especially in the aftermath of natural disasters. Our data suggest that Katrina was associated with prolonged loss of employment and insurance, decreased access to preventive health services, and an increased incidence of AMI. In addition, it appears that chronic stress after a natural disaster can be associated with tobacco abuse and medication and therapeutic noncompliance.

Conclusions: We found a 3-fold increased incidence of AMI more than 2 years after Hurricane Katrina. Even allowing for the loss of some local hospitals after the disaster, this represents a significant change in overall health of the study population and supports the need for further study into the health effects of chronic stress. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2009;3:144–150)

Objective: Point-of-care testing (POCT) devices are deployed in the field for emergency on-site testing under a wide range of environmental conditions. Our objective was to evaluate the performance of glucose meter test strips and handheld blood gas analyzer cartridges following thermal stresses that simulate field conditions.

Methods: We evaluated electrochemical and spectrophotometric glucose meter systems and a handheld blood gas analyzer. Glucose test strips were cold-stressed (–21°C) and heat-stressed (40°C) for up to 4 weeks. Blood gas cartridges were stressed at –21°C, 2°C, and 40°C for up to 72 hours. Test strip and cartridge performance was evaluated using aqueous quality control solutions. Results were compared with those obtained with unstressed POCT strips and cartridges.

Results: Heated glucose test strips and blood gas cartridges yielded elevated results. Frozen test strips and cooled cartridges yielded depressed glucose and blood gas results, respectively. Frozen cartridges failed.

Conclusions: The performance of glucose test strips and blood gas cartridges was affected adversely by thermal stresses. Heating generated elevated results, and cooling depressed results. Disaster medical assistance teams and emergency medical responders should be aware of these risks. Field POCT devices must be robust to withstand adverse conditions. We recommend that industry produce POCT devices and reagents suitable for disaster medical assistance teams. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2009;3:13–17)

Objective: The potential for deadly human stampedes to occur at any mass gathering event highlights this unique form of crowd disaster as deserving of special attention from both scientific and planning perspectives. Improved understanding of human stampedes is indispensable in the mitigation of this type of mass casualty. With relatively few peer-reviewed reports on deadly human stampedes, information from news reports and the Internet is essential to increased collective understanding. Without incorporating nontraditional sources, no other way to reasonably acquire sufficient data is available. This study analyzed human stampede events from 1980 to 2007 to identify epidemiological characteristics associated with increased mortality.

Methods: A LexisNexis search was followed by sequential searches of multiple Internet-based English-language news agencies. Date, country, geographical region, time of occurrence, type of event, location, mechanism, number of participants, number injured, and number of deaths were recorded. Bivariate analyses of number of deaths or injuries were conducted using a nonparametric Wilcoxon rank test. Multivariate regression was performed to determine the factors associated with increased number of fatalities during stampede events.

Results: A total of 215 human stampede events were reported from 1980 to 2007, resulting in 7069 deaths and at least 14,078 injuries from 213 events with available fatality information and 179 events with injury information. In bivariate analysis, stampedes occurring in the Middle East, in developing countries, outdoors, or associated with religious events had the highest median number of deaths. In multivariate analysis, events that occurred in developing countries and outdoors were associated with increased number of fatalities. Stampedes that occurred in the context of sports, religious, music, and political events, or that had a unidirectional mechanism, also increased the relative number of deaths.

Conclusions: Several epidemiological features of human stampedes associated with increased mortality are identified. Standardized collection of epidemiological data pertaining to human stampedes is strongly recommended, and further study of this recurrent, distinctive disaster is warranted. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2009;3:217–223)

Objective: National security special events occur yearly in the United States. These events require comprehensive advance planning for health and medical contingencies in addition to law enforcement concerns. The planning for and impact of the Republican National Convention (RNC) on the City of St Paul and the Minneapolis–St Paul metropolitan area is described.

Methods: Descriptive analysis of events was provided by the authors based on their planning and operational experiences. Daily data were gathered from area hospitals, emergency medical services agencies, the National Weather Service, federal medical teams, and the Minnesota Department of Health to capture the impact of the RNC on emergency department activity, nonemergency surgery, emergency medical services run volumes, patient visits to onsite and offsite medical clinics, and general hospital occupancy in the metropolitan area.

Results: There were no epidemiological signal events. Weather was not extreme. Confrontations between protestors and law enforcement resulted in frequent use of riot-control agents. Protestors sought medical care from “street medics” and their affiliated free clinics in preference to usual medical facilities. Emergency departments close to the event venue reported decreased patient volumes. Hospitals close to the venue reported significantly decreased nonemergency surgical case volumes. Local hospitals implemented access controls and in 1 case, shut down ventilation systems due to riot-control agent deployment in the streets outside. Emergency medical services volumes were near average, with the exception of St Paul Fire Department on the day of a major protest march.

Conclusions: Planning and operational response for the RNC consumed large amounts of time and resources. The RNC had minimal patient impact on the health care system and in fact caused significant volume decreases at hospitals proximate to the venue. Although contingencies available for a mass casualty event were not needed, they must continue to be available for all such events. Health and medical preparedness and funding is not adequately detailed in the planning framework for national security special events, and this should be a focus for future events. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2009;3:224–232)

Objectives: Although different types of gender-based violence (GBV) have been documented in disaster-affected populations, no studies have documented a quantitative increase in rates of GBV among populations living in protracted displacement after a disaster. We aimed to assess the change in rates of GBV after Hurricane Katrina among internally displaced people (IDPs) living in travel trailer parks in Mississippi.

Methods: The study design included successive cross-sectional randomized surveys, conducted in 2006 and 2007, among IDPs in Mississippi using a structured questionnaire. We sampled 50 travel trailer parks in 9 counties in Mississippi in 2006, and 69 parks in 20 counties in 2007. A total of 420 female respondents comprised the final sample. We measured respondent demographics, forms of GBV including sexual and physical violence further subtyped by perpetrator, suicidal ideation, suicide attempt, and Patient Health Questionnaire-9–assessed depression.

Results: Respondents had a mean age of 42.7 years. The crude rate of new cases of GBV among women increased from 4.6/100,000 per day to 16.3/100,000 per day in 2006, and remained elevated at 10.1/100,000 per day in 2007. The increase was primarily driven by the increase in intimate partner violence. GBV experience was significantly associated with increased risk for poor mental health outcomes.

Conclusions: Overall, the rate of GBV, particularly intimate partner violence, increased within the year following Hurricane Katrina and did not return to baseline during the protracted phase of displacement. Disaster planning efforts should incorporate plans to decrease the incidence of GBV following a disaster, and to ensure adequate services to people with postdisaster GBV experience. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2009;3:18–26)

Although widespread support favors prospective planning for altered standards of care during mass casualty events, the literature includes few, if any, accounts of groups that have formally addressed the overarching policy considerations at the state level. We describe the planning process undertaken by public health officials in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, along with community and academic partners, to explore the issues surrounding altered standards of care in the event of pandemic influenza. Throughout 2006, the Massachusetts Department of Public Health and the Harvard School of Public Health Center for Public Health Preparedness jointly convened a working group comprising ethicists, lawyers, clinicians, and local and state public health officials to consider issues such as allocation of antiviral medications, prioritization of critical care, and state seizure of private assets. Community stakeholders were also engaged in the process through facilitated discussion of case scenarios focused on these and other issues. The objective of this initiative was to establish a framework and some fundamental principles that would subsequently guide the process of establishing specific altered standards of care protocols. The group collectively identified 4 goals and 7 principles to guide the equitable allocation of limited resources and establishment of altered standards of care protocols. Reviewing and analyzing this process to date may serve as a resource for other states. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2009;3(Suppl 2):S132–S140)

On September 13, 2008, Hurricane Ike made landfall in Texas, resulting in the mandatory evacuation of 8 counties before landfall and the declaration of disaster areas in 29 counties afterward. This study evaluated whether Hurricane Ike affected the pattern of Texas poison center calls. Texas poison center calls received from the disaster area counties were identified for 3 time periods: August 12 to September 10, 2008 (preevacuation), September 11 to 13, 2008 (evacuation and hurricane landfall), and September 14 to 30, 2008 (postevacuation). For selected types of calls, the mean daily call volume during time periods 2 and 3 was compared with a baseline range (BR) derived from the mean daily call volume during time period 1. During the evacuation and landfall period, gasoline exposure calls were higher than expected (mean 3, BR −1 to 2). During the postevacuation period, higher than expected numbers of calls were observed for gasoline exposures (mean 5, BR −1 to 2) and carbon monoxide exposures (mean 3, BR –1–1). During an evacuation, certain calls such as those involving gasoline exposures may increase. After a hurricane, calls such as those involving carbon monoxide and gasoline exposures may increase. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2009;3:151–157)

During the past decade, hospital emergency preparedness has become a focus of local, state, and federal governments seeking to address emergencies or disasters that affect the public health. Integral to hospital emergency preparedness are numerous legal challenges that hospitals and their health care personnel face during declared states of emergencies. In this article, we evaluate legal requirements for hospital emergency preparedness, key legal concerns that hospitals should consider in emergency preparedness activities, and how the changing legal landscape during emergencies necessitates real-time decision making. We then analyze legal issues including negligence, discrimination, and criminal culpability that may arise during or after medical triage. Finally, we examine the legal risks of evading preparedness, specifically asking how a hospital and its personnel may be held liable for failing to plan or prepare for an emergency. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2009;3(Suppl 1):S37–S44)

Objective: To develop and apply a novel modeling approach to support medical and public health disaster planning and response using a sarin release scenario in a metropolitan environment.

Methods: An agent-based disaster simulation model was developed incorporating the principles of dose response, surge response, and psychosocial characteristics superimposed on topographically accurate geographic information system architecture. The modeling scenarios involved passive and active releases of sarin in multiple transportation hubs in a metropolitan city. Parameters evaluated included emergency medical services, hospital surge capacity (including implementation of disaster plan), and behavioral and psychosocial characteristics of the victims.

Results: In passive sarin release scenarios of 5 to 15 L, mortality increased nonlinearly from 0.13% to 8.69%, reaching 55.4% with active dispersion, reflecting higher initial doses. Cumulative mortality rates from releases in 1 to 3 major transportation hubs similarly increased nonlinearly as a function of dose and systemic stress. The increase in mortality rate was most pronounced in the 80% to 100% emergency department occupancy range, analogous to the previously observed queuing phenomenon. Effective implementation of hospital disaster plans decreased mortality and injury severity. Decreasing ambulance response time and increasing available responding units reduced mortality among potentially salvageable patients. Adverse psychosocial characteristics (excess worry and low compliance) increased demands on health care resources. Transfer to alternative urban sites was possible.

Conclusions: An agent-based modeling approach provides a mechanism to assess complex individual and systemwide effects in rare events. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2009;3:75–87)

Background: The humanitarian crisis in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has been among the world’s deadliest in recent decades. We conducted our third nationwide survey to examine trends in mortality rates during a period of changing political, security, and humanitarian conditions.

Methods: We used a 3-stage, household-based cluster sampling technique to compare east and west DRC. Sixteen east health zones and 15 west zones were selected with a probability proportional to population size. Four east zones were purposely selected to allow historical comparisons. The 20 smallest population units were sampled in each zone, 20 households in each unit. The number and distribution of households determined whether they were selected using systematic random or random walk sampling. Respondents were asked about deaths of household members during the recall period: January 2006–April 2007.

Findings: In all, 14,000 households were visited. The national crude mortality rate of 2.2 deaths per 1000 population per month (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.1–2.3) is almost 70% higher than that documented for DRC in the 1984 census (1.3) and is unchanged since 2004. A small but significant decrease in mortality since 2004 in the insecure east (rate ratio: 0.96, P = .026) was offset by increases in the western provinces and a transition area in the center of the country. Nonetheless, the crude mortality rate in the insecure east (2.6) remains significantly higher than in the other regions (2.0 and 2.1, respectively). Deaths from violence have declined since 2004 (rate ratio 0.7, P = .02).

Conclusions: More than 4 years after the official end of war, the crude mortality rate remains elevated across DRC. Slight but significant improvements in mortality in the insecure east coincided temporally with recent progress on security, humanitarian, and political fronts. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2009;3:88–96)

Objectives: An influenza pandemic, as with any disaster involving contagion or contamination, has the potential to influence the number of health care employees who will report for duty. Our project assessed the uptake of proposed interventions to mitigate absenteeism in hospital workers during a pandemic.

Methods: Focus groups were followed by an Internet-based survey of a convenience sample frame of 17,000 hospital workers across 5 large urban facilities. Employees were asked to select their top barrier to reporting for duty and to score their willingness to work before and after a series of interventions were offered to mitigate it.

Results: Overall, 2864 responses were analyzed. Safety concerns were the most frequently cited top barrier to reporting for work, followed by issues of dependent care and transportation. Significant increases in employee willingness to work scores were observed from mitigation strategies that included preferential access to antiviral medication or personal protective equipment for the employee as well as their immediate family.

Conclusions: The knowledge base on workforce absenteeism during disasters is growing, although in general this issue is underrepresented in emergency planning efforts. Our data suggest that a mitigation strategy that includes options for preferential access to either antiviral therapy, protective equipment, or both for the employee as well as his or her immediate family will have the greatest impact. These findings likely have import for other disasters involving contamination or contagion, and in critical infrastructure sectors beyond health care. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2009;3(Suppl 2):S141–S147)

Background: Drive-through mass vaccination clinics are an increasingly popular component of public health emergency response plans. One potential disadvantage, however, is the exposure of clinicians, volunteers, public health responders, and the public to carbon monoxide (CO) from vehicle exhaust emissions when clinics are held within garages or other enclosed structures.

Methods: CO levels were monitored during indoor drive-through clinics held on the same day at 2 separate locations in a rural upstate New York county. Each clinic was operated for 2 hours during which seasonal influenza vaccines were administered to county residents as they remained within their vehicles. At each location, vehicle engines remained operating indoors within multiple lanes of traffic. No mechanical ventilation was used, but wind speeds through the buildings were relatively strong and consistent. CO was measured at breathing-zone height throughout the clinic sessions using direct-reading instruments.

Results: CO levels remained below detection for the majority of the clinic sessions. Short-term, high CO exposures, however, were found to be associated with a small number of individual vehicles that were in apparent disrepair.

Conclusions: The findings from this study indicate that CO exposures may be minimized by identifying and separately processing problematic vehicles before they enter the clinic. Direct reading CO monitors can help to identify these vehicles. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2009;3:158–162)

Background: Neither professional consensus nor evidence exists to guide the choice of essential hospital disaster interventions. The objective of our study was to demonstrate a method for developing consensus on hospital disaster interventions that should be regarded as essential, quantitatively balancing needs and resources.

Methods: A panel of pediatric acute care practitioners developed consensus using a modified Delphi process. Interventions were chosen such that workload per staff member would not exceed the previously validated maximum according to the Therapeutic Intervention Scoring System. Based on published models, it was assumed that the usual numbers of staff would care for a disaster surge of 4 times the usual number of intensive care and non–intensive care hospital patients.

Results: Using a single set of assumptions on constrained resources and overwhelming needs, the panel ranked and agreed on essential interventions. A number of standard interventions would exceed crisis workload constraints, including detailed recording of vital signs and fluid balance, administration of vasoactive agents, invasive monitoring of pressures (central venous, intraarterial, intracranial), dialysis, and tube feedings.

Conclusions: The quantitative methodology and consensus development process described in the present report may have utility in future planning. Groups with appropriate expertise must develop action plans according to authority within each jurisdiction, addressing likely disaster scenarios, according to the needs in each medical service region, using available regional resources, and accounting for the capabilities of each institution. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2009;3:27–32)

There is no widely accepted, validated framework of health care emergency management capabilities (HEMCs) that can be used by facilities to guide their disaster preparedness and response efforts. We reviewed the HEMCs and the evaluation methods used by the Veterans Health Administration, The Joint Commission, the Institute of Medicine Metropolitan Medical Response System committee, the Department of Homeland Security, and the Department of Health and Human Services to determine whether a core set of HEMCs and evaluative methods could be identified.

Despite differences in the conceptualization of health care emergency management, there is considerable overlap among the agencies regarding major capabilities and capability-specific elements. Of the 5 agencies, 4 identified occupant safety and continuity of operations as major capabilities. An additional 5 capabilities were identified as major by 3 agencies. Most often the differences were related to whether a capability should be a major one versus a capability-specific element (eg, decontamination, management of resources). All of the agencies rely on multiple indicators and data sources to evaluate HEMCs. Few performance-based tools have been developed and none have been fully tested for their reliability and validity. Consensus on a framework and tools to measure HEMCs is needed. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2009;3(Suppl 1):S45–S51)