Our objective is to forecast the number of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in the state of Maryland, United States, using transfer function time series (TS) models based on a Social Distancing Index (SDI) and determine how their parameters relate to the pandemic mechanics.

A moving window of 2 mo was used to train the transfer function TS model that was then tested on the next week data. After accounting for a secular trend and weekly cycle of the SDI, a high correlation was documented between it and the daily caseload 9 days later. Similar patterns were also observed on the daily COVID-19 cases and incorporated in our models.

In most cases, the proposed models provide a reasonable performance that was, on average, moderately better than that delivered by TS models based only on previous observations. The model coefficients associated with the SDI were statistically significant for most of the training/test sets.

Our proposed models that incorporate SDI can forecast the number of COVID-19 cases in a region. Their parameters have real-life interpretations and, hence, can help understand the inner workings of the epidemic. The methods detailed here can help local health governments and other agencies adjust their response to the epidemic.

Emergency medicine specialists working in the Republic of Turkey Ministry of Health public hospitals are assigned voluntarily or compulsorily along the Turkey-Syria borderline due to the operational conditions. In accordance with this study’s purpose, methods and overcoming problems of emergency medical specialists working at border points are addressed.

The case study design is used as a qualitative research method in this research. Within the context of content analysis, 2 themes and 7 subthemes are created in line with the identified subproblems. Under these themes, the problems experienced by physicians, solutions to them, and recommendations for physicians who will start to work along the borderline are presented with codes and anecdotes.

The results of the study indicate that the problems experienced by physicians working in the border regions are centred on environmental conditions, operation of the system, and security issues. The methods for coping with such problems focus on effective communication and the support of colleagues. The basic suggestion of the participating physicians to improve the system is that the emergency medical specialists who run the border service should undergo training that can be useful for adapting to war conditions. Despite experiencing personal and familial challenges, these physicians express that they feel happy and at peace in their work.

For the physicians assigned to work along the borderlines, high efficiency can be obtained if they are given preassignment training and provided with effective personal communication combined with personal rights adjustment.

Environmental health assessments of disaster shelters are critical for monitoring the living conditions of the occupants. However, knowledge and levels of utilization of these assessments have never been estimated in the United States or its territories. We aimed to conduct a cross-sectional survey to ascertain knowledge and Utilization of environmental health disaster shelter assessments.

The State and Territorial Use of Shelter Assessments Survey (STUSA) of environmental health department directors (N=56) was carried out in 2013.

Survey responses were received from 55 of 56 targeted jurisdictions. Of those respondents, 92% of state jurisdictions and 100% of territories reported having knowledge about shelter assessments. However, only 40% of states and 60% of territories reported receiving formal training, and 53% of states and 50% of territories reported having operational procedures for shelter assessments. High levels of knowledge and familiarity and low levels of training and processes for operationalizing assessments were assessed.

Because environmental health assessments may provide useful information in disaster settings, we need to understand the barriers to their implementation. The results of these assessments may also help to validate their usefulness in protecting shelter occupants during disasters. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2017;11:11–14)

The response of nurses in Japan to the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident was deemed inadequate. This study examined the issues in Japanese radiation nursing education.

Anonymous, self-administered postal questionnaires were sent to managers and teachers of 1053 basic nursing educational institutions in Japan.

Among the 342 institutions that completed the questionnaire, 218 (63.7%) had incorporated Radiological Nursing Education into their curriculum while 124 (36.3%) had not. Based on the time of their incorporation, they were divided into the pre-accident incorporation group and the post-accident incorporation groups. For 89 of 111 institutions (85.6%) in the former group, the main reason for the incorporation was radiotherapy care. For 11 of 26 institutions (42.3%) in the latter group, the incorporation was their response to the nuclear disaster.

Nursing education in Japan has been inadequate, and as such, nurses find it hard to respond to nuclear disasters. Examining the current nursing education system and building a new model based on the nuclear disaster experience are urgent issues.

In case of an outbreak of Nankai Trough Mega-earthquake, it is predicted that a tsunami would invade Nagoya City within 100 minutes, hitting about one third of the City of Nagoya. If the administrative plan of the city and midwives’ expertise are coordinated, pregnant women’s chances of survival will increase. The authors carried out this simulation study in an attempt to improve consistency of the two efforts.

We estimated the number of pregnant women using a machine learning model. The evacuation distance of pregnant women was estimated on the basis of the data of road center line.

Through this simulation study, it became clear that preparation for approximately 2600 pregnant women escaping from tsunami predicted area and for about 1200 pregnant women possibly left in the area is needed.

Our study suggests that triage point planning is needed in areas where pregnant women are evacuated. The triage makes it possible to transport women to appropriate hospitals.

This study aims at exploring the dynamics of health-care provision during recent unplanned public mass gatherings in Beirut, and how the health-care system adapts to mass movements in protests.

A qualitative study was conducted using semi-structured interviews with 12 health-care providers who volunteered at medical tents set during protests in Beirut, Lebanon. Responses were transcribed and coded.

Three themes were noted: preparedness and logistics, encountered cases, and participants’ proposed recommendations. In terms of preparedness and logistics, participants lacked knowledge of field medicine protocols and an organizational structure. They faced difficulties in securing equipment and advertising their services. Most encountered cases were physical injuries rather than mental health problems. The participants proposed both short-term recommendations, including advice on how to boost care provided, and long-term recommendations on structuring the health-care system to be better prepared.

On-site health-care provision during unplanned mass gatherings is a vital need. We recommend forming a task force of health-care workers from various fields led by the Ministry of Public Health in every respective country to plan protocols, train personnel, and secure resources beforehand.

To determine the case-fatality rate (CFR) of coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) and its associated determinants in order to understand the true magnitude of the problem during the ongoing conflict in Yemen.

The CFR among the confirmed Covid-19 cases in Yemen was calculated. The data was retrieved from national Covid-19 surveillance between April 10, when the first COVID-19 case reported, and May 31, 2020.

A total of 419 confirmed Covid-19 cases were reported. There were 14.1% and 5.7% of cases who required intensive care and mechanical ventilators, respectively. Out of the total cases, 95 deaths were reported, giving a CFR of 22.6% which is much higher compared to other countries. CFR was significantly higher among elderly people compared to young adults and varied between governorates. Mortality was associated with pre-existing hypertension (OR: 2.30; 95% CI: 1.58, 3.54) and diabetes (OR: 1.68; 95% CI: 1.08, 2.61).

The elderly and those with comorbidities, in particular hypertension and diabetes, have higher risk for poor outcomes and therefore should receive more attention in the clinical setting. Preventive measures should also be prioritized to protect those groups in order to reduce the severe cases and deaths-associated COVID-19 in armed-conflict.

Public health and emergency management agencies play a critical role in addressing the needs of vulnerable populations in preparation for and in response to emergencies. Identifying and leveraging community assets is a way to address such needs. This study focuses on the development of a process and tools to engage community leaders in sharing their knowledge about their community characteristics and assets useful for emergency planning.

We conducted interviews with community leaders across five study sites with the goal of understanding what type of local knowledge community leaders are able to share in regard to emergency preparedness. Based on the interview results we developed and tested a mobile application as a mobile friendly directory of community assets.

We identified two main types of local knowledge about community assets for emergency preparedness: communication-based and trust-based local knowledge. We created an application to facilitate the sharing of such knowledge. Community leaders were able to share local knowledge across four areas: communication-based assets, trust-based assets, spatial-based assets and personal-preparedness assets.

Community leaders’ engagement in preparedness efforts is important to identify community assets that can be leveraged to address the needs of the most vulnerable segments of a community.