Understanding the Falsification of Village Income Statistics

Abstract

Despite the general consensus on problems with official income statistics, quantitative data on the falsification of income statistics have been scarce. This article draws on original survey data from 2001 to provide estimates of the extent and magnitude of income data falsification by village cadres and uses statistical analysis to identify factors that are correlated with the inflation of village income per capita. Evidence from survey data as well as village case studies suggests that village cadres were less likely to inflate village income per capita when they were cadre-entrepreneurs, when they were located in villages with well implemented elections, when they were embedded in village-wide solidary groups such as temples and lineages, when they experienced less direct supervision from township officials, and when they relied less on revenue from village levies.