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The Importance of Ideas: An A Priori Critical Juncture Framework

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  21 November 2007

John Hogan  and
David Doyle
John Hogan
Affiliation:
Dublin City University
David Doyle
Affiliation:
Dublin City University
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Abstract

Abstract. This paper sets out an improved framework for examining critical junctures. This framework, while rigorous and broadly applicable and an advance on the frameworks currently employed, primarily seeks to incorporate an a priori element. Until now the frameworks utilized in examining critical junctures were entirely postdictive. Adding a predictive element to the concept will constitute a significant advance. The new framework, and its predictive element, termed the “differentiating factor,” is tested here in examining macro-economic crises and subsequent changes in macro-economic policy, in America and Sweden.

Résumé. Cet article propose un cadre amélioré pour analyser les conjonctures critiques. Bien que rigoureux, largement applicable et représentant en soi une avance sur les modèles actuellement utilisés, ce cadre cherche principalement à incorporer un élément a priori. Jusqu'ici les cadres servant à l'étude des conjonctures critiques étaient entièrement fondés sur la postdiction. L'ajout d'un élément prédictif constituera une avance notable. Cet article examine la validité du nouveau cadre et de son élément prédictif, appelé “facteur de différenciation”, à la lumière des crises macro-économiques en Amérique et en Suède et des changements de politique macro-économique qu'elles ont entraînés dans leur sillon.

Type
Research Article
Information
Canadian Journal of Political Science/Revue canadienne de science politique , Volume 40 , Issue 4 , December 2007 , pp. 883 - 910
Copyright
© 2007 Cambridge University Press

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