Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-2plfb Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-02T18:03:02.832Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Turnout in Local Elections: Evidence from Canadian Cities, 2004–2014

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  03 July 2017

Sandra Breux ,
Jérôme Couture  and
Royce Koop
Sandra Breux*
Affiliation:
Institut National de Recherche Scientifique
Jérôme Couture*
Affiliation:
Université Laval and INRS-UCS
Royce Koop*
Affiliation:
University of Manitoba
*
Institut National de Recherche Scientifique, Centre Urbanisation Culture et Société, 385 rue Sherbrooke Est, Montréal QP, H2X 1E3, email: [email protected]
Université Laval and INRS-UCS, 385 rue Sherbrooke Est, Montréal PQ, H2X 1E3, email: [email protected]
Department of Political Studies, University of Manitoba, 532 Fletcher Argue, Winnipeg MB, R3 T 2N2, email: [email protected]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

We provide the first wide-scale analysis of the factors that influence voter turnout in Canadian local elections. Drawing on original data from 300 municipal elections conducted from 2004 to 2014, we use ordinary least squares regression with panel-corrected standard errors for time series cross-sections to test explanatory hypotheses related to differences in institutional design, the social-spatial context of these elections, and local competitiveness. Our results show that, although institutional and sociospatial factors influence local turnout, the competitiveness of elections exercises the greatest influence on local electoral participation.

Résumé

Cet article dresse un premier portrait systématique des facteurs explicatifs de la participation électorale à l’échelle municipale au Canada. À partir d’une analyse de régression de type O.L.S. avec P.C.S.E portant sur les 100 plus grandes villes canadiennes entre 2004 et 2014 (N = 300), nous testons trois grands types d'hypothèses reliées 1) au contexte institutionnel; 2) au contexte socio-spatial et 3) à la compétitivité de l'élection. Notre analyse révèle que les facteurs institutionnels et socio-spatiaux détiennent une influence sur la participation électorale à l’échelle municipale et que la compétitivité de l’élection est l’élément qui exerce l’influence la plus importante.

Type
Research Article
Information
Canadian Journal of Political Science/Revue canadienne de science politique , Volume 50 , Issue 3 , September 2017 , pp. 699 - 722
Copyright
Copyright © Canadian Political Science Association (l'Association canadienne de science politique) and/et la Société québécoise de science politique 2017 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Achen, Christopher H. and Shively, W. Phillips. 1995. Cross-Level Inference. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Beck, Nathaniel, and Katz, Jonathan N.. 1995. “What to do (and not to do) with time-series cross-section data.” American Journal of Political Science 89 (3): 634–47.Google Scholar
Blank, R.H. 1974. “Socio-Economic Determinism of Voting Turnout: A Challenge.” Journal of Politics 36: 731–52.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Breux, Sandra and Couture, Jérôme. 2014. “Explaining invalid votes in a non-politicized context and in a low-tunout environment: The case of one municipal Canadian election.” Political Studies Association annual congress, University of Manchester, Manchester, April 19.Google Scholar
Breux, Sandra, Couture, Jérôme and Goodman, Nicole. 2016. “Fewer voters, higher stakes? The applicability of rational choice for voter turnout in Quebec municipalities.” Environment and Planning C: Government and Policy : First view.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Breux, Sandra, Couture, Jérôme and Bherer, Laurence. 2014. Les candidats sortants : atouts ou obstacles à la participation électorale. Canadian Journal of Urban Research 23 (2): 59–78.Google Scholar
Cancela, J. and Geys, Benny. 2016. “Explaining voter turnout: A meta-analysis of national and subnational elections.” Electoral Studies 42: 264–75.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Caren, Neil. 2007. “Big City, Big Turnout? Electoral Participation in American Cities.” Journal of Urban Affairs 29 (1): 31–46.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Caruna, Nicholas, McGregor, R. Michael, Moore, Aaron A. and Stephenson, Laura B.. 2015. “Voting ‘Ford’ or Against: Understanding Strategic Voting in the 2014 Toronto Municipal Election.” Paper prepared for the Canadian Political Science Association annual conference, Ottawa, June 2–4.Google Scholar
Champagne, Patrick. 2007. Les élections municipales 2005: Au-delà des apparences, ed. MAMR. Québec: Gouvernement du Québec.Google Scholar
Collin, Jean-Pierre, Léveillée, Jacques, Rivard, Mathieu and Robertson, Mélanie. 2003. L'organisation municipale au Canada: Un régime à géométrie variable, entre tradition et transformation. Montréal: Groupe de recherche sur l'innovation municipale.Google Scholar
Couture, Jérôme, Breux, Sandra and Bherer, Laurence. 2014. Analyse écologique des déterminants de la participation électorale municipale au Québec. Revue canadienne de science politique 47 (4): 787–812.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cutler, Fred. 2008. “Whodunnit? Voters and Responsibility in Canadian Federalism.” Canadian Journal of Political Science 41 (3): 627–54.Google Scholar
Cutler, Fred, and Matthews, J. Scott. 2005. “The Challenge of Municipal Voting: Vancouver 2002.” Canadian Journal of Political Science 38 (2): 359–82.Google Scholar
Dostie-Goulet, Eugénie, Blais, André, Fournier, Patrick and Gidengil, Elisabeth. 2013. “L'abstention sélective, ou pourquoi certains jeunes qui votent au fédéral boudent les élections municipales.” Revue canadienne de science politique 45 (4): 909–27.Google Scholar
Eggers, Andrew C. 2015. “Proportionality and Turnout: Evidence from French Municipalities.” Comparative Political Studies 48 (2): 135–67.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eidelman, Gabriel, and Taylor, Zack. 2010. “Canadian Urban Politics: Another “Black Hole”? Journal of Urban Affairs 32 (3): 305–20.Google Scholar
Frandsen, Annie Gaardsted. 2002. “Size and electoral participation in local elections.” Environment and planning C: Government and Policy 20: 853–69.Google Scholar
Frederickson, H. George and Johnson, Gary A.. 2001. “The Adapted American City: A Study of Instititional Dynamics.” Urban Affairs Review 36: 872–84.Google Scholar
Germann, Sebastian. 2016. “Concurrent Elections and Turnout: Causal estimates from a German quasi-experiment.” Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 126 (A): 167–78.Google Scholar
Geys, Benny. 2006. “Explaining voter turnout: A review of aggregate-level research.” Electoral Studies 25: 637–63.Google Scholar
Benny, Geys. 2012. “Success and failure in electoral competition: Selective issue emphasis under incomplete issue ownership.” Electoral Studies 31: 406–12.Google Scholar
Hajnal, Zoltan and Lewis, Paul. 2003. “Municipal Institutions and Voter Turnout in Local Elections.” Urban Affairs Review 38 (5): 645–68.Google Scholar
Hajnal, Zoltan, Lewis, Paul G. and Louch, Hugh. 2002. Municipal Elections in California: Turnout, Timing and Competition. San Francisco: Public Policy Institute of California.Google Scholar
McGregor, Michael and Spicer, Zachary. 2016. “The Canadian Homevoter: Property Values and Municipal Politics in Canada.” Journal of Urban Affairs 38 (1): 123–39.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McGregor, R. Michael, Moore, Aaron A. and Stephenson, Laura B.. 2016. “Political Attitudes and Behaviour in a Non-Partisan Environment: Toronto 2014.” Canadian Journal of Political Science 49 (2): 311–33.Google Scholar
Merrifield, John. 1993. “The institutional and political factors that influence voter turnout.” Public Choice 77 (3): 657–67.Google Scholar
Milner, Henry. 1997. “Electoral Systems, Integrated Institutions and Turnout in Local and National Elections: Canada in Comparative Perspective.” Canadian Journal of Political Science 30 (1): 89–106.Google Scholar
Moore, Aaron A., McGregor, Michael and Stephenson, Laura B. (forthcoming). “Paying Attention and the Incumbency Effect: Voting Behaviour in the 2014 Toronto Municipal Election.” International Review of Political Science.Google Scholar
Nakhaie, Reza M. 2006. “Electoral Participation in Municipal, Provincial and Federal Elections in Canada.” Revue canadienne de science politique 39 (2): 363–90.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nikolenyi, Csaba. 2010. “Concurrent Elections and Voter Turnout: The Effect of the De-Linking of State Elections on Electoral Participation in India's Parliamentary Polls, 1971–2004.” Political Studies 58 (1): 214–33.Google Scholar
Oliver, J. Eric. 2001. Democracy in Suburbia. Princeton NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Oliver, J. Eric, Ha, Shang E. and Callen, Zachary. 2012. Local Elections and the Politics of Small Scale Democracy. Princeton and Oxford: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Rallings, Colin and Thrasher, Michael. 2005. “Not all ‘second order’ contests are the same: Turnout and Party Choice at the Concurrent 2004 Local and European Parliament Elections in England.” The British Journal of Politics and International Relations 7 (4): 584–97.Google Scholar
Sancton, Andrew and Young, Robert, eds. 2009. Foundations of Governance. Municipal Government in Canada's Provinces. Toronto: University of Toronto Press.Google Scholar
Selb, Peter. 2009. “A Deeper Look at the Proportionality-Turnout Nexus.” Comparative Political Studies 42 (4): 527–48.Google Scholar
Sellers, Jeffrey and Lidström, Anders. 2008. “Decentralization, Local Government and the Welfare State.” Governance 20: 609–32.Google Scholar
Sproule-Jones, Mark. 2007. “Political Parties at the Local Level of Government.” Canadian Parties in Transition, ed. Gagnon, Alain G. and Tanguay, A. Brian. Toronto: University of Toronto Press.Google Scholar
Tavares, Antonio and Carr, Jered. 2012. “So close, yet so far away ? The effects of city size, density and growth on local civic participation.” Journal of Urban Affairs 35 (3):283–302.Google Scholar
Trounstine, Jessica. 2006. “Dominant Regimes and the Demise of Urban Democracy.” Journal of Politics 68 (4): 879–93.Google Scholar
Jessica, Trounstine. 2008. Political Monopolies in American Cities: The Rise and Fall of Bosses and Reformers. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Trounstine, Jessica. 2009. “All politics is local: The re-emergence of the study of city politics.” Perspectives on Politics 7 (3): 611–18.Google Scholar
Walks, Alan. 2013 “Metropolitan Political Ecology and Contextual Effects in Canada.” In The Political Ecology of the Metropolis, ed. Sellers, Jeffrey, Kübler, Daniel, Walter-Rogg, Mélanie and Walks, Alan. Colchester UK and New York: ECPR/Columbia University Press.Google Scholar
Wood, Curtis. 2002. “Voter Turnout in City Elections.” Urban Affairs Review 38 (2): 209–31.CrossRefGoogle Scholar