Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-t8hqh Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-30T19:25:28.909Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Issue-Attention and Punctuated Equilibria Models Reconsidered: An Empirical Examination of the Dynamics of Agenda-Setting in Canada*

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  10 November 2009

Michael Howlett
Michael Howlett
Affiliation:
Simon Fraser University
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Most of the work on policy dynamics focuses on the agenda-setting stage of the policy cycle and argues that policy issues wax and wane in public attention, generating either a cyclical or evolutionary pattern of governmental activity in particular policy sectors. Anthony Downs's notion of a periodic “issue-attention cycle” and Frank Baumgartner and Bryan Jones's notion of a stepped or “punctuated equilibrium” pattern of policy change are prominent in the literature, but have received little empirical and virtually no cross-national verification. Utilizing the analysis of time-series data gathered on nuclear energy and acid rain issues appearing on government and public agendas in Canada over the period 1977–1992, this article elaborates the elements of the two models and subjects both to empirical testing. The article finds little support for either model in the Canadian case and argues the assumptions behind the models must be altered to account for this anomalous case.

Résumé

La plupart des travaux portant sur la dynamique des décisions gouvernementales met l'accent sur sur l'étape des échéances du cycle de changement d'orientations et démontre que les controverses sur les décisions croissent et décroissent avec le temps dans l'attention du public. Ce phénomène entraîne une tendance qui peut être soit un patron cyclique, soit évolutif au sein de certains secteurs de l'activité gouvernementale. Le concept de cycle périodique, nommé « cycle susceptible de soulever la controverse » par Anthony Downs et le concept d'un modèle « d'équilibre intermittent », ou modèle de changement d'orientation par étapes progressives, développé par Frank Baumgartner et Bryan Jones, abondent dans la littérature. Toutefois, ils ont été peu vérifiés à la fois empiriquement et à léchelle pan-étatiste. En se fondant sur les données des séries chronologiques sur l'énergie nucléaire ainsi que sur les controverses soulevées par le débat public portant sur les pluies acides entre 1977 et 1992, cette étude approfondit les éiéments des deux modèles considérés et les soumet à des tests empiriques. Cet article montre que ces deux modèles sont inadéquats lorsqu'appliqués au cas canadien et soutient que les hypothèses sur lesquelles elles reposent doivent être révisées pour prendre en considération ce qui apparaît comme une anomalie.

Type
Research Article
Information
Canadian Journal of Political Science/Revue canadienne de science politique , Volume 30 , Issue 1 , March 1997 , pp. 3 - 29
Copyright
Copyright © Canadian Political Science Association (l'Association canadienne de science politique) and/et la Société québécoise de science politique 1997

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

1 See Lasswell, Harold D., The Decision Process: Seven Categories of Functional Analysis (College Park: University of Maryland, 1956)Google Scholar; Brewer, Garry D., “The Policy Sciences Emerge: To Nurture and Structure a Discipline,” Policy Sciences 5 (1974), 239–44CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and Jones, Charles O., An Introduction to the Study of Public Policy (Monterey: Brooks/Cole, 1984)Google Scholar. For a critique of this heuristic see Sabatier, Paul A., “Toward Better Theories of the Policy Process,” PS: Political Science and Politics 24 (1991), 144–56.Google Scholar

2 See Rose, Richard, “Models of Change,” in Richard, Rose, ed., The Dynamics of Public Policy: A Comparative Analysis (London: Sage, 1976), 7–33Google Scholar; and McFarland, Andrew S., “Interest Groups and Political Time: Cycles in America,” British Journal of Political Science 21 (1991), 257–84CrossRefGoogle Scholar. See also Rochefort, David A., “Policymaking Cycles in Mental Health,” Journal of Health Politics, Policy and Law 13 (1988), 129–52CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed; and Sabatier, Paul, “Policy Change Over a Decade or More,” in Sabatier, P. A. and Jenkins-Smith, H. C., eds., Policy Change and Learning: An Advocacy Coalition Approach (Boulder: Westview, 1993), 13–40.Google Scholar

3 Downs, Anthony, “Up and Down with Ecology—The ‘Issue-Attention Cycle,’” The Public Interest 28 (1972), 38–50.Google Scholar

4 Baumgartner, Frank R. and Jones, Bryan D., Agendas and Instability in American Politics (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1993).Google Scholar

5 On the “punctuated equilibrium” model of change, see Gersick, Connie J. G., “Revolutionary Change Theories: A Multilevel Exploration of the Punctuated Equilibrium Paradigm,” Academy of Management Review 16 (1991), 10–36CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and Hernes, Gudmund, “Structural Change in Social Processes,” American Journal of Sociology 82 (1976), 513–47.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

6 Cobb, Roger W. and Elder, Charles D., Participation in American Politics: The Dynamics of Agenda-Building (Boston: Allyn and Bacon, 1972), 12.Google Scholar

7 Most early works on the subject began from the assumption that socio-economic conditions led to particular sets of problems to which governments eventually responded. See Sharkansky, Ira, “Constraints on Innovation in Policy Making: Economic Development and Political Routines,” in Frank, Marini, ed., Toward a New Public Administration: The Minnowbrook Perspective (Scranton: Chandler, 1971), 261–79Google Scholar; Aaron, H. J., “Social Security: International Comparison,” in Eckstein, O., ed., Studies in the Economics of Income Maintenance (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, 1967), 13–49Google Scholar; Pryor, F. L., Public Expenditures in Communist and Capitalist Nations (Homewood, Ill.: R. D. Irwin, 1968); andGoogle ScholarWilensky, H. L., The Welfare State and Equality: Structural and Ideological Roots of Public Expenditures (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1975)Google Scholar. This “response theory” soon proved unsatisfactory for a variety of reasons, not the least of which related to its tendency to overstate the influence of either governments or their public in driving the agenda-setting process, to the neglect of a subtler understanding of how these actors related to each other and the manner in which interpretations of policy problems were constructed. See Berger, Peter L. and Luckmann, Thomas, The Social Construction of Reality: A Treatise in the Sociology of Knowledge (New York: Doubleday, 1966)Google Scholar; and Spector, Malcolm and Kitsuse, John I., Constructing Social Problems (New York: Aldine de Gruyter, 1987).Google Scholar

8 Castles, Frank and McKinlay, Robert D., “Does Politics Matter?: An Analysis of the Public Welfare Commitment in Advanced Democratic States,” European Journal of Political Research 7 (1979), 169–86CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Castles, Francis G., “The Impact of Parties on Public Expenditure,” in Castles, Francis G., ed., The Impact of Parties: Politics and Policies in Democratic Capitalist States (London: Sage, 1982), 21–96Google Scholar; Hibbs, Douglas A. Jr., “Political Parties and Macroeconomic Policy,” American Political Science Review 71 (1977), 1467–87CrossRefGoogle Scholar; King, Anthony, “What Do Elections Decide?” in David, Butler, Penniman, Howard R. and Austin, Ranney, eds., Democracy at the Polls: A Comparative Study of Competitive National Elections (Washington, D.C.: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, 1981), 96–124Google Scholar; and Beyme, Klaus von, “Do Parties Matter? The Impact of Parties on the Key Decisions in the Political System,” Government and Opposition 19 (1984), 5–29.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

9 See Hilgartner, Stephen and Bosk, Charles L., “The Rise and Fall of Social Problems: A Public Arenas Model,” American Journal of Sociology 94 (1981), 53–78CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Holzner, Burkhart and Marx, John H., Knowledge Application: The Knowledge System in Society (Boston: Allyn and Bacon, 1979)Google Scholar; and Rochefort, David A. and Cobb, Roger W., “Problem Definition, Agenda Access, and Policy Change,” Policy Studies Journal 21 (1993), 56–71.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

10 See Edelman, Murray J., Constructing the Political Spectacle (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1988), 12–13Google Scholar; Stark, Andrew, “‘Political-Discourse’ Analysis and the Debate over Canada's Lobbying Legislation,” this Journal 25 (1992), 513–34Google Scholar; Fischer, Frank and Forester, John, eds. The Argumentative Turn in Policy Analysis and Planning (Durham: Duke University Press, 1993)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Stone, Deborah A., Policy Paradox and Political Reason (Glenview: Scott, Foresman, 1988)Google Scholar; and Stone, Deborah A., “Causal Stories and the Formation of Policy Agendas,” Political Science Quarterly 104 (1989), 281–300.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

11 This is the case, for example, with the popular notion of a “funnel of causality” put forward by Richard Hofferbert in the US and Richard Simeon in Canada in the early 1970s, in the effort to model policy determinants. See Hofferbert, Richard I., The Study of Public Policy (Indianapolis: Bobbs-Merrill, 1974)Google Scholar; and Simeon, Richard, “Studying Public Policy,” this Journal 9 (1976), 548–80.Google Scholar

12 Downs, “Up and Down with Ecology,” 38.

13 Ibid., 42.

14 Majone, Giandomenico, Evidence, Argument, and Persuasion in the Policy Process (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1989).Google Scholar

15 Baumgartner, Frank R. and Jones, Bryan D., “Agenda Dynamics and Policy Sub-systems,” Journal of Politics 53 (1991), 1044–74CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Baumgartner and Jones, Agendas and Instability in American Politics; and Baumgartner, Frank R. and Jones, Bryan D., “Attention, Boundary Effects, and Large-Scale Policy Change in Air Transportation Policy,” in Rochefort, D. A. and Cobb, R. W., eds., The Politics of Problem Definition: Shaping the Policy Agenda (Lawrence: University Press of Kansas, 1994), 50–66.Google Scholar

16 On subsystems and their role in the policy process see Howlett, Michael and Ramesh, M., Studying Public Policy: Policy Cycles and Policy Subsystems (Toronto: Oxford University Press, 1995).Google Scholar

17 Baumgartner and Jones, “Agenda Dynamics and Policy Subsystems,” 1047.

18 Baumgartner and Jones, Agendas and Instability in American Politics, 88.

19 Ibid., 89.

20 Ibid., 18.

21 See the related discussion of the need for comparative empirical verification of theories of electoral realignment in Carmines, Edward G. and Stimson, James A., “On the Evolution of Political Issues,” in Riker, William H., ed., Agenda Formation (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1993), 151–69.Google Scholar

22 Peters, B. Guy and Hogwood, Brian W., “In Search of the Issue-Attention Cycle,” Journal of Politics 47 (1985), 238–53.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

23 Ibid., 250.

24 Ibid., 251.

25 Ibid., 252.

26 Downs, “Up and Down with Ecology,” 39.

27 Bosso, Christopher J., “Setting the Agenda: Mass Media and the Discovery of Famine in Ethiopia,” in Margolis, M. and Mauser, G. A., eds., Manipulating Public Opinion: Essays on Public Opinion as a Dependent Variable (Pacific Grove: Brooks/Cole, 1989), 153–74Google Scholar. This does not presuppose that Downs's characterization of the role of the media in the policy process is correct. On this, see Cook, F. L. et al., “Media and Agenda Setting: Effects on the Public, Interest Group Leaders, Policy Makers, and Policy,” Public Opinion Quarterly 47 (1983), 16–35CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed; Erbring, Lutz and Goldenberg, Edie N., “Front Page News and Real World Cues: A New Look at Agenda-Setting by the Media,” American Journal of Political Science 24 (1980), 16–49CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and McCombs, Maxwell E., “The Agenda-Setting Approach,” in Nimmo, D. D. and Sanders, K. R., eds., Handbook of Political Communication (Beverly Hills: Sage, 1981), 121–40.Google Scholar

28 CBCA is the major electronic index for Canadian newspapers, popular and business magazines, and scholarly journals, and is equivalent to the Canadian Index, formerly the Canadian Business Index, Canadian News Index and Canadian Magazine Index. CBCA provides comprehensive coverage of Canadian topics, including the arts, business, politics, literature, history and news events, from 1982 to the present.

29 On time series analysis, see Liu, Lon-Mu, “Box-Jenkins Time Series Analysis,” in Dixon, W. J., ed., BMDP Statistical Software Manual (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1988), Vol. 1, 429–82Google Scholar; McCleary, Richard and Hay, Richard A., Applied Time Series Analysis for the Social Sciences (Beverly Hills: Sage, 1980)Google Scholar; and Schmitz, Bernhard, “Univariate and Multivariate Time Series Models: The Analysis of Intraindividual Variability and Intraindividual Relationships,” in Von Eye, A., ed., Statistical Methods in Longitudinal Research, Vol. 2: Time Series and Categorical Longitudinal Data (Boston: Academic Press, 1990), 351–86Google Scholar. For political studies employing a similar methodology see Larson, Stephanie Greco and Grier, David Alan, “Agenda Setting and AIDS,” Proceedings of the American Political Science Association (1990)Google Scholar; Carmines, Edward G. and Stimson, James A., “On the Structure and Sequence of Issue Evolution,” American Political Science Review 80 (1986), 901–20CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and Cohen, Jeffrey E., “Presidential Rhetoric and the Public Agenda,” American Journal of Political Science 39 (1995), 87–107CrossRefGoogle Scholar. An early example is Peters, B. Guy, “Social Change, Political Change and Public Policy: A Test of a Model,” in Richard, Rose, ed., The Dynamics of Public Policy: A Comparative Analysis (London: Sage, 1976), 113–36.Google Scholar

30 Ostrom, Charles W., Time Series Analysis: Regression Techniques (Beverly Hills: Sage, 1990), 29CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and Chatfield, C., The Analysis of Time Series: An Introduction (London: Chapman and Hall, 1992)Google Scholar. See also Beck, Nathaniel and Katz, Jonathan N., “What to Do (and Not to Do) with Time-Series-Cross-Section Data in Comparative Politics,” American Political Science Review 89 (1995), 634–47.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

31 Wilkinson, Leland, Hill, Maryann and Vang, Erin, SYSTAT: Statistics, Version 5.2 Edition (Evanston: SYSTAT, Inc., 1992).Google Scholar

32 See, for example, Hall, Peter A., “Policy Paradigms, Social Learning and the State: The Case of Economic Policy Making in Britain,” Comparative Politics 25 (1993), 275–96CrossRefGoogle Scholar. For an example of the application of this model to Canadian circumstances, see Howlett, Michael, “Policy Paradigms and Policy Change: Lessons from the Old and New Canadian Policies towards Aboriginal Peoples,” Policy Studies Journal 22 (1994), 631–52.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

33 Baumgartner and Jones, Agendas and Instability in American Politics, Appendix A, Tables A.I and A.2.

34 Ibid., Appendix B, 269–72.

35 Ibid., Appendix B, 270.

36 Ibid., 244–45.

37 On spectral analysis, see Thrall, Tony and Engelman, Laszlo, “Univariate and Bivariate Spectral Analysis,” in Dixon, W. J., ed., BMDP Statistical Software Manual (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1988), Vol. 2, 971–1012Google Scholar; and Gottman, John M., Time Series Analysis: A Comprehensive Introduction for Social Scientists (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1981).Google Scholar

38 Using the SPECTRA Procedure from SPSS TRENDS, these figures plot magnitude or density against frequency on a logarithmic scale. See SPSS TRENDS 6.1 (Chicago: SPSS Inc., 1994).

39 On the prominent role played by officials and politicians in the environmental agenda-setting process in Canada, see Harrison, Kathryn and Hoberg, George, “Setting the Environmental Agenda in Canada and the United States: The Cases of Dioxin and Radon,” this Journal 24 (1991), 3–27Google Scholar; Maclellan, Duncan K., “The Domestic Politics of the Federal-Provincial Eastern Canada Acid Rain Control Programme: A Case Study of Agenda Building,” paper presented at the annual meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, Calgary, 1994Google Scholar; and Smith, Douglas A., “Defining the Agenda for Environmental Protection,” in Graham, Katherine A., ed., How Ottawa Spends 1990–91: Tracking the Second Agenda (Ottawa: Carleton University Press, 1990), 113–36Google Scholar. Cobb, Ross and Ross, of course, developed three different typical models of agenda-setting—the outside initiation model, the mobilization model and the inside initiation model—which they associated with particular types of political regime. See Cobb, R., Ross, J. K. and Ross, M. H., “Agenda Building as a Comparative Political Process,” American Political Science Review 70 (1976), 127–36CrossRefGoogle Scholar. See also Cobb and Elder, Participation in American Politics, 85. On the continued relevance of Cobb's work to the area of the environment, see Aim, Leslie R. and Davis, Charles, “Agenda-Setting and Acid Precipitation in the United States,” Environmental Management 17 (1993), 807–16Google Scholar. Baumgartner and Jones's recent emphasis on the role of US congressional committees in affecting policy image and venue types, of course, suggests that this element of the agenda-setting process would not “travel” across different political regime types. See Talbert, Jeffrey C., Jones, Bryan D. and Baumgartner, Frank R., “Nonlegislative Hearings and Policy Change in Congress,” American Journal of Political Science 39 (1995), 383–406.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

40 Kingdon, John W., Agendas, Alternatives and Public Policies (Boston: Little, Brown, 1984), 21.Google Scholar

41 On institutionalized political (electoral or budgetary) cycles, see Frey, Bruno S., “Politico-Economic Models and Cycles,” Journal of Public Economics 9 (1978), 203–20CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Locksley, Gareth, “The Political Business Cycle: Alternative Interpretations,” in Paul, Whitely, ed., Models of Political Economy (London: Sage Publications, 1980), 125–37Google Scholar; and especially Tufte, Edward R., Political Control of the Economy (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1978)Google Scholar. On the Canadian case, see Foot, David K., “Political Cycles, Economic Cycles and the Trend in Public Employment in Canada,” in Bucovetsky, Meyer W., ed., Studies in Public Employment and Compensation in Canada (Toronto: Institute for Research on Public Policy, 1979), 65–80Google Scholar. For a critical review of this literature see Boddy, Raford and Crotty, James, “Class Conflict and Macro-Policy: The Political Business Cycle,” Review of Radical Political Economics 7 (1975), 1–19.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

42 See, for example, Kerr, Brink and Mladenka, Kenneth R., “Does Politics Matter? A Time-Series Analysis of Minority Employment Patterns,” American Journal of Political Science 38 (1994), 918–43.CrossRefGoogle Scholar