There has recently been some debate about the usefulness of financial economics to the actuarial profession. The consensus appears to be that the techniques are potentially valuable, but the published material is not quite ‘oven ready’. Some development work is required before the material can be applied.

The author has carried out much of the necessary development work on behalf of various clients over the last few years. On some occasions the results have conflicted with more conventional actuarial methods. The main aim of the paper is to bring the new techniques into the public domain so that they can be properly discussed by the profession, and adopted more widely if appropriate.

The paper contains a number of worked examples using techniques developed by financial economists. The author has listed the computer code which generated the examples and deposited copies on the Internet, so that others can explore the issues with a minimal development overhead.

This paper reviews the present statutory valuation method and regime. It discusses the usefulness and effectiveness of the method in relation to the current range of insurance contracts. It suggests a possible alternative approach to statutory valuation which could enable offices to demonstrate both their solvency and their ability to meet policyholders' reasonable expectations. It reviews the effects of introducing the suggested method and its relationship with other current reporting issues.

The paper compares and contrasts the theories and methodologies of financial economics with generalisations drawn from practical experience of institutional investment management. A Dynamic Equilibrium Model is put forward as a much more realistic theoretical framework than the Sharpe Diagonal Model, a downside theory of risk is developed from sports analogies, and a detailed model of human behaviour, incorporating benchmark levels of ‘unintelligent’, ‘intelligent’, ‘optimal’ and ‘rational’ behaviour, is suggested as a replacement for the very restrictive simplifying assumptions of existing theories. On the basis of a classification system derived from parallels with the history of astronomy, it is concluded that, as a scientific framework, the current theories of financial economics are seriously incomplete, the two crucial areas of incompleteness being the absence of a downside theory of risk and the absence of a realistic model of human behaviour under conditions of risk and uncertainty.

The paper describes the application of actuarial techniques to the financial management of unit trusts and other collective investment schemes. The main features of collective investment schemes are described and the financial issues facing managers of these schemes are highlighted. The unit trust industry in particular is facing a number of potentially significant changes and the paper explores the areas in which the actuarial profession can add value to this industry.

This paper looks at the problems of assessing, for solvency purposes, the capital requirements of a non-life insurer in the context of the United Kingdom. It considers how these capital requirements might vary according to the different risks to which an insurer is subject and how this Risk-Based Capital (RBC) might be measured in practice, using as a case study the RBC formula recently introduced in the United States of America. The paper also discusses the application of RBC concepts to the problem of internal capital allocation, to assist in measuring an insurer's rate of return to shareholders by business unit, as well as the more obvious regulatory application. The advantages and disadvantages of a formula-based approach to capital requirements for solvency purposes are discussed in comparison with possible alternative approaches to insurance supervision.

An analysis is made of the effect on portfolio performance if assets are continually rebalanced to constant market value proportions, relative to the passive ‘buy and hold’ strategy. The probability that one strategy outperforms the other is evaluated on the basis of a geometric diffusion model of market prices and by reference to historical data.

The text of this paper, together with the abstract of the discussion held by the Institute of Actuaries on 27 February 1995, are printed in British Actuarial Journal, 1, IV, pages 603-688.

In the current financial climate takeovers of proprietary life companies by other life companies, amalgamations of mutuals and demutualisations have become more and more prevalent. However in respect of takeovers, the process does not end with the purchase, but normally results in the transfer of the long-term business of one of the companies to the other. To optimise synergy and administrative efficiency, there may be a need to reconstruct the amalgamated funds.

The author has been involved as Appointed Actuary and internal project manager in such transfers of business within proprietary companies and has also acted as an independent actuary and as an external project manager for other transfers. One of these transfers involved four companies transacting both with-profits and unit-linked business in which the interests of both policyholders and shareholder had to be protected. He considered this transfer to be of sufficient interest to merit the preparation of a paper discussing the issues which arose. Although the paper is principally based on that transfer as a case study, relevant and related factors arising in other transfers have been included where appropriate, as have references to the role of the actuary before, during and after reconstruction.

In the case study, the scheme of transfer and the associated reconstruction of corporate structure involved merging three separate with-profits funds, merging many unit-linked funds (including unitised with-profits) and, subject to appropriate compensation, rationalisation of the rights to surplus attributable to both with-profits policyholders and shareholder.

Counting processes and their compensators are introduced at a heuristic level. The martingale property of stochastic integrals with respect to a compensated counting process leads to moment estimates and asymptotic normal distributions for statistics arising in multiple state, non-parametric and semi-parametric models. The place of survival models in actuarial education is discussed.

This is a study into the future of the actuarial profession. Its main purpose is to assist the United Kingdom profession to respond effectively to the changes and opportunities of the next ten plus years. Scenarios are developed to show where the profession could progress to in that period; the major changes and developments implied by these forward views are identified and actions to take the profession in the desired directions are proposed.

The study covers the key issues relating to most of the various business areas in which actuaries practise, and considers, in particular: the future supply of, and demand for, actuaries; actuarial education and training and relations with other professions.

The paper discusses the role of actuaries within the NHS. Actuaries have applied the concept of Geographic Information Systems to health data on patient traffic flows, transportation studies and specialty specific information on NHS providers (such as hospitals, ambulance stations and GP practices). Actuaries have been working with NHS Trusts to generate private patient income. Actuarial modelling developments, as part of a multi-disciplinary approach, have been used to interpret health data and to assist with the reconfiguration of NHS services. Actuaries have also been involved in long-term health services planning and in the financial planning of services for chronically ill patients.

The paper outlines a series of case studies involving actuaries working in the NHS, highlighting their unique contributions. The case studies include advising on emergency health services planning, acute hospital service planning, NHS Trust private patient unit income generation, comparative peer group ranking studies, long-term population projections, health needs assessment and a feasibility study for a provider unit to care for the chronically ill. Finally, we discuss the role of the actuary in the NHS and his or her ability to build a communication bridge between NHS purchasers and providers, in the public interest.

The text of this paper, together with the abstract of the discussion held by the Faculty of Actuaries on 19 February 1996, are printed in British Actuarial Journal, 2, III, pages 623-702.

In this paper a stochastic model office offering UK-style life insurance contracts is used to demonstrate the effect on relative solvency of different investment and bonus strategies. Relative solvency is defined loosely as the probability that an individual insurer does not fall significantly out of line with the rest of the life insurance market, in terms of, for example, asset liability ratios, or payouts to with-profit policyholders. The model uses the Wilkie investment model, extended to incorporate variation between companies in equity performance.

In recent years there has been increasing interest in clarifying the respective interests of shareholders and participating policyholders in the inherited estate of the proprietary life offices. This paper defines the inherited estate, considers the sources of surplus contributing to it and suggests an approach for quantifying it. Views are expressed on the attribution of the inherited estate to the parties involved with a view to a consensus emerging from a discussion of the underlying factors. The role of the supervisory authorities and of the Appointed Actuary and the independent actuary are considered and methods of accessing the inherited estate attributed to shareholders are examined.

This paper surveys some statistical models of survival data. A basic model of a random lifetime is defined, and censoring is introduced. Methods based on observations of small segments of lifetimes are compared. Markov and semi-Markov (multiple state) models are recommended as well-understood and flexible models well suited to actuarial data. A Poisson model is discussed as an approximation to a two state model, while traditional Binomial-type models are shown to be more restricted and less tractable than multiple state models.

In this paper we use a case study of a non-life insurance portfolio to demonstrate how recent research in ruin theory can be applied to solvency problems. By approximating the aggregate claims distribution for the portfolio by a translated gamma distribution, we estimate ruin probabilities through a recursive procedure when the insurer earns investment income on its surplus. We also show the results of applying simulation techniques to this problem, and discuss some advantages and disadvantages of simulation as a means of assessing ruin probabilities. Finally we discuss the calculation of the probability of ruin at the end of a specified time period.

This paper surveys some statistical models of survival data. Competing risks models are described; the unidentifiability of net decrements suggests a sceptical approach to the use of underlying single decrement tables. Approaches based on observations of complete lifetimes (with censoring) are surveyed including the Kaplan-Meier and Nelson-Aalen estimates. Regression models for lifetimes depending on covariates are discussed, in particular the Cox model and partial likelihood estimation.