The history of the United Provinces, and of Holland especially, from the close of the Spanish rule down to the establishment of the modern monarchy of the Netherlands, is distinguished for its manifestation of a permanent struggle between different opposite principles. Liberty and authority, municipal principle and state principle, republic and monarchy, the spirit of federal isolation and that of centralization, appear to give battle to each other upon a territory itself with difficulty defended from the waves of the ocean by the watchful industry of its inhabitants.

The following paper sets out the actuarial basis for the Cologne Re model projecting the spread of AIDS. We project new infections, new AIDS cases, and deaths for the sexually active population and demonstrate the effect on the German life assurance industry.

Before proceeding to describe the mortality experiences made use of in this investigation, I will first of all discuss the various materials that have been used in investigations into the mortality among assured lives, the methods of arranging those materials in order to deduce the rate of mortality, and the method of graduation best adapted for the adjustment of the rate of mortality among recently-selected lives, pointing out the advantages and disadvantages of each, and stating which I have adopted. This will necessarily partake more or less of the nature of an historical sketch; but I think it will conduce to clearness, and will, I trust, prove interesting as well as instructive. I have also thought it desirable to state somewhat fully the information on which I have based my conclusions, in order that my readers may be in a position to exercise an independent judgment.

This paper is mainly concerned with the division of a trust fund between the beneficiaries, when an actuary is asked for a solution which, in his opinion, is fair to all parties concerned. It may be that the beneficiaries are all sui juris and form a closed class, in which case they approach the actuary as umpire, and adopt a passive role, at least until they have considered the implications of his recommendations. Alternatively, the actuary's report may be required to assist the Court to approve a scheme involving beneficiaries, e.g. infants, whom it is the Court's object to protect. In that case the actuary's role—as discussed later in the paper—is rather different, but it may still be necessary for him to state what in his judgment would be an impartial solution.

The Presidential Address covers various aspects of the actuarial profession; past, present and into the future. It considers mutual life companies and their current situation. There needs to be improved education in investment and more actuaries should be involved in this area. The codes of conduct and disciplinary procedures of the profession have to be kept under constant review. The international actuarial scene is of great importance, with mutual recognition of qualifications, the various groupings of actuaries and of actuarial associations world wide and the expansion of the profession into further countries all part of current activities. Various alternative options for the future of the profession in the U.K. are suggested.

There is a lack of publicly available information covering the practices insurers employ to manage their exposure to reinsurance recapture risk. A working party was set-up to shed light on the different approaches insurers use to mitigate this complicated to manage risk. This report is intended to form part of a publicly available information repository that market practitioners can refer to and reflect on as best practice evolves and develops.

The lecture begins by outlining the differences in lifetime earnings between men and women, and between women with different levels of skill and with different numbers of children. It continues with a discussion on wrongful conception and wrongful birth, and the legal implications when damages are sought when children are born who were not meant to have been born. Many examples of claims for damages brought before the courts, over a period of time, are used to illustrate various aspects of this. Cases concerning both healthy and disabled children are discussed, and the changes that occur for all women who have given birth and the mother's responsibility of care are considered.

Stochastic mortality models are important for a variety of actuarial tasks, from best-estimate forecasting to assessment of risk capital requirements. However, the mortality shock associated with the Covid-19 pandemic of 2020 distorts forecasts by (i) biasing parameter estimates, (ii) biasing starting points, and (iii) inflating variance. Stochastic mortality models therefore require outlier-robust methods for forecasting. Objective methods are required, as outliers are not always obvious on visual inspection. In this paper we look at the robustification of three broad classes of forecast: univariate time indices (such as in the Lee-Carter and APC models); multivariate time indices (such as in the Cairns-Blake-Dowd and newer Tang-Li-Tickle model families); and penalty projections (such as with the 2D P-spline model). In each case we identify outliers using quantitative methods, then co-estimate outlier effects along with other parameters. Doing so removes the bias and distortion to the forecast caused by a mortality shock, while providing a robust starting point for projections. Illustrations are given for various models in common use.