Asian soybean rust (rust) is an emerging issue in U.S. crop production and was identified in nine states during 2004. Recent farm surveys indicate that many producers are adjusting their management practices to the possibility of a rust infestation. The economic and environmental impacts of such adjustments are not known in the medium run given these new developments. We combine 2005 data on the geographical distribution of the fungal pathogen that causes rust with 2005 information on the availability and material costs of fungicides to analyze three treatment strategies. Our results indicate a higher range of economic impacts than previous research has indicated, but are consistent with earlier findings indicating that rust infestations will likely result in reduced soybean production, reduced exports, and higher prices.

The Dixit entry/exit real option model was applied to the entry/exit decisions of New York dairy farmers. For the cost structure of a 500-cow farm, the entry milk price is $17.52 per hundredweight (cwt) and the exit milk price is $10.84. For the 50-cow farm cost structure, the entry price is higher at $23.71 per cwt, and the exit price is also higher at $13.48. If infinite numbers of representative farms enter and exit at these prices, the price of milk should range between $13.48 and $17.52 per cwt.

We use contingent behavior analysis to study the effects of pfiesteria-related fish kills on the demand for seafood in the Mid-Atlantic region. We estimate a set of demand difference models based on individual responses to questions about seafood consumption in the presence of fish kills and with different amounts of information provided about health risks. We use a random-effects Tobit model to control for correlation across each observation and to account for censoring. We find that (i) pfiesteria-related fish kills have a significant negative effect on the demand for seafood even though the fish kills pose no known threat to consumers through seafood consumption, (ii) seafood consumers are not responsive to expert risk information designed to reassure them that seafood is safe in the presence of a fish kill, and (iii) a mandatory seafood inspection program largely eliminates the welfare loss incurred due to misinformation.

Asian gypsy and nun moth introductions into the United States, possibly arriving on imported Siberian coniferous logs, threaten domestic forests and product markets and could have global market consequences. We simulate, using the Global Forest Products Model (a spatial equilibrium model of the world forest sector), the consequences under current policies of a widespread, successful pest invasion, and of plausible trading partner responses to the successful invasion. We find that trade liberalization would have a negligible effect on U.S. imports of Siberian logs and, consequently, on the risk of a pest invasion. But, if it happened, possibly through trade in other commodities, a successful and widespread pest invasion would have large effects on producers and consumers over the period 2002 to 2030.

This paper presents a dynamic principal-agent model of aquatic species invasions in which a manager, concerned about the spread of invasive species across lakes by boaters, sets interseasonal management controls on a lake-by-lake basis, and boaters make a series of intraseasonal trip decisions to maximize random utility during the course of the season, conditional on the controls imposed by the manager. The results of a simulated invasion of Eurasian watermilfoil (Myriophyllum spicatum) highlight interesting aspects of the optimal management policies under two different management objectives: maximizing boater welfare and minimizing milfoil spread.

Data on the number of Pennsylvania dairy farms by size category are analyzed in a Markov chain setting to determine factors affecting entry, exit, expansion, and contraction within the sector. Milk prices, milk price volatility, land prices, policy, and cow productivity all impact structural change in Pennsylvania's dairy sector. Stochastic simulation analysis suggests that the number of dairy farms in Pennsylvania will likely fall by only 2.0 percent to 2.5 percent annually over the next 20 years, indicating that dairy farming in Pennsylvania is likely to be a significant enterprise for the state in the foreseeable future.

This paper presents a case study of the economic damages to homeowners in a northern New Jersey community due to an exotic forest insect—the hemlock woolly adelgid. Hedonic property value methods are used to estimate the effect of hemlock health on property values. A statistically significant relationship between hemlock health and residential property values is established. Moreover, there are some signs of spillover impacts from hemlock decline, as negative effects are realized on the parcels where the declining hemlock stands are located as well as on neighboring properties. These results give some indication of the benefits of potential control programs and strategies and also show support for community- or neighborhood-based programs in residential settings.

This research compared bids that consumers placed on non genetically modified (GM), organic, and conventional versions of food products in order to determine if the organic market well serves those seeking to avoid GM foods. Auction experiments using potato chips, tortilla chips, and milk chocolate were conducted with 79 subjects. Bids were modeled as a function of consumer demographics using a heteroskedastic tobit regression model. Results with the non-GM attribute nested into the organic characteristic showed that the latter's marginal effects were insignificant. This suggested the potential to further develop non-GM products for consumers not willing to pay extra for the remaining organic attributes.

Plant invasions and their impact on land use pose difficult research questions, due to the complex relationships between the ecological nature of the invasion and the human responses to the invasion. This paper focuses on the linkages between an invasion of bracken fern and land use decisions in an agricultural frontier in southern Mexico. Agriculture in this region is practiced on an extensive basis, using traditional slash-and-burn techniques of temporary cultivation and continuous rotation through forest fallow. We investigate the factors that affect the decision of a subsistence farmer to either continue cultivating an invaded agricultural plot or permanently abandon the plot and cultivate elsewhere. We develop an agricultural household model of land use choices, where households maximize utility subject to constraints on land, labor, and income. We subsequently test the hypotheses raised, using data from a small household survey performed in the region in 2002.

This paper reviews the literature on the economics of invasive species management as it applies to invasive species in general and terrestrial invasive species in particular. The paper summarizes a number of recent studies that assign values to the economic impact of terrestrial invasive species on a national scale. This is followed by a review of the economic literature on control and prevention of a biological invasion and the literature on international trade and trade policy with invasive species. The paper then reviews selected studies on terrestrial invasive plants, animals, and microbes, respectively.

Invasive species are a growing threat in the United States, causing losses in biodiversity, changes in ecosystems, and impacts on economic enterprises such as agriculture, fisheries, and international trade. The costs of preventing and controlling invasive species are not well understood or documented, but estimates indicate that the costs are quite high. The costs of aquatic invasive species are even less well understood than those for terrestrial species. A systematic approach is needed to develop a consistent method to estimate the national costs of aquatic invasives. This review of the economic literature on aquatic invasive species is the first stage in the development of that estimate. We reviewed over sixty sources and include both empirical papers that present cost estimates as well as theoretical papers on preventing and mitigating the impacts of aquatic invasive species. Species-specific estimates are included for both animals and plants.