Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-g7gxr Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-04T19:48:58.348Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

VSTOL Aircraft market analysis

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  03 February 2016

D. K. Howarth
D. K. Howarth*
Affiliation:
[email protected], Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Company, Palmdale, California, USA
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

This paper describes the market for air vehicles that offer Very Short Take Off and Landing (VSTOL) capabilities, also known as VSTOL aircraft. A commercial VSTOL aircraft will only succeed if it provides profits to both manufacturers and airlines. Being able to operate out of shorter fields offers airlines greater flexibility and therefore provides a benefit to the airline. However, adding VSTOL performance also adds cost. Successful VSTOL aircraft designs must balance the added cost against the additional benefits VSTOL performance will provide.

The first problem in any new VSTOL design is determining what field length provides the maximum benefit relative to cost. In order to be able to determine this one needs to know not only what it will cost to design and build the new aircraft, but its value to the airlines, as reflected by the demand for it and the price they are willing to pay. Only then is it possible to design the aeroplane the market wants at a sustainable price and in sufficient quantities to optimise the manufacturer’s return on investment.

This paper is a comprehensive parametric analysis of helicopters and aeroplanes that shows how much the market values short field performance by determining how much airline customers have been paying for it and how the market reacts to changes in its price. The analysis simultaneously considers over 230 currently produced models of fixed wing and rotary commercial aircraft, ranging in size from a Cessna 172 to an Airbus A380 and with balanced field lengths ranging from less than 150 to over 10,500ft.

The data show that a single, statistically significant demand curve exists for all of these vehicles, with prices that range across several orders of magnitude. This curve consists of several segments or sub-markets including those for regional and rotary wing aircraft. Both of those markets offer vehicles over a wide range of prices. The analysis shows that VSTOL price is a function of the balanced field length provided by the vehicles within these market segments. Comparing demand and sustained price against cost reveals particular field lengths for which it will be possible to make a profit building VSTOL aircraft.

Because the sustained price for a VSTOL aircraft is a function of its field length performance, and the quantity of a model sold is a function of its price, it follows that it is possible to predict the profit potential for a given VSTOL design in advance of its development. A thorough study of potential configurations therefore offers manufacturers the ability to design VSTOL aircraft that provide the maximum possible profit while fully satisfying the requirements of their airline customers.

Type
Research Article
Information
The Aeronautical Journal , Volume 113 , Issue 1140: The International Powered Lift Conference 2008: A Special issue , February 2009 , pp. 107 - 118
Copyright
Copyright © Royal Aeronautical Society 2009 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

1. Taylor, A. III, Boeing’s amazing sonic cruiser It was supposed to change the way the world flies. Instead the world changed. Fortune, 9 December 2002.Google Scholar
2. Wallace, J., Sonic Cruiser is shelved, Seattle Post-Intelligencer, 19 December 2002.Google Scholar
3. Corbett, P., Eclipse Aviation Launched, The Arizona Republic, October 2000.Google Scholar
4. Anselmo, J.C. and Velocci, A.L. Jr. Eclipse’s Slow Takeoff, Aviation Week & Space Technology, 1 September 2007.Google Scholar
5. Webb, A., Eclipse 500 Sells for $1,833,945 Online, Albuquerque J, August 2007.Google Scholar
6. Forecast International, Civil Aircraft Forecast 2004-2013, October 2003.Google Scholar
7. Raymer, D.P., Aircraft Design: A Conceptual Approach, American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics Education Series, 1999, pp 579–596.Google Scholar
8. http://www.meyersaircraft.com/DAPCA%20IV/DAPCA%20IV%20Intro%20Page.html Google Scholar
9. www.ae.utexas.edu/ASE261KChaput/Chapters/chapter13.ppt Google Scholar
10. Lockheed Martin ESTOL Final Report to NASA-Ames, 7 November 2005.Google Scholar
11. Forecast International, Op cit.Google Scholar
12. Howarth, D.K., Profit as an independent variable: The case of business aircraft, International Society of Parametric Analysts Conference Proceedings, Denver, Colorado, USA, 6-9 June 2005.Google Scholar
13. Howarth, D.K., Financial Opportunity Space, International Society of Parametric Analysts Southern California Chapter Workshop Proceedings, El Segundo, California, USA, 12 September 2006.Google Scholar
14. Howarth, D.K., The Economic Value of Short Take Off and Landing Performance, SAE Aerotech Congress, Grapevine, Texas, USA, 3-6 October 2005.Google Scholar
15. Howarth, D.K., Financial Catscans and Time, 2006 Institute of Electrical & Electronics Engineers IEEE. Aerospace Conference, Big Sky Montana, 4-11 March 2006.Google Scholar
16. Howarth, D.K., Economic Trajectory Analysis, International Society of Parametric Analysts Conference Proceedings, Seattle, Washington, USA, 23-26 May 2006.Google Scholar
17. Howarth, D.K., The market as target, International Society of Parametric Analysts Southern California Chapter Workshop Proceedings, Manhattan Beach California, USA, 6 December 2006.Google Scholar
18. http://www.bls.gov/CPI/ Google Scholar