We show a class of stock price models with stochastic volatility for which the most natural candidates for martingale measures are only strictly local martingale measures, contrary to what is usually assumed in the finance literature. We also show the existence of equivalent martingale measures, and provide one explicit example.

We transpose the ordinary differential equation method (used for decreasing stepsize stochastic algorithms) to a dynamical system method to study dynamical systems disturbed by a noise decreasing to zero. We prove that such an algorithm does not fall into a regular trap if the noise is exciting in an unstable direction.

The input of a multiserver loss system is assumed to be a periodic random marked point process which has, with probability one, infinitely many construction points. It is shown that, independently of the initial distribution, there exists a unique periodic process modeling the periodic steady-state behaviour of the loss system. In addition, practical sufficient conditions for the existence of enough construction points are derived.

Let {Ai : i ≥ 1} be a sequence of non-negative random variables and let M be the class of all probability measures on [0,∞]. Define a transformation T on M by letting Tμ be the distribution of ∑i=1∞AiZi, where the Zi are independent random variables with distribution μ, which are also independent of {Ai}. Under first moment assumptions imposed on {Ai}, we determine exactly when T has a non-trivial fixed point (of finite or infinite mean) and we prove that all fixed points have regular variation properties; under moment assumptions of order 1 + ε, ε > 0, we find all the fixed points and we prove that all non-trivial fixed points have stable-like tails. Convergence theorems are given to ensure that each non-trivial fixed point can be obtained as a limit of iterations (by T) with an appropriate initial distribution; convergence to the trivial fixed points δ0 and δ∞ is also examined, and a result like the Kesten-Stigum theorem is established in the case where the initial distribution has the same tails as a stable law. The problem of convergence with an arbitrary initial distribution is also considered when there is no non-trivial fixed point. Our investigation has applications in the study of: (a) branching processes; (b) invariant measures of some infinite particle systems; (c) the model for turbulence of Yaglom and Mandelbrot; (d) flows in networks and Hausdorff measures in random constructions; and (e) the sorting algorithm Quicksort. In particular, it turns out that the basic functional equation in the branching random walk always has a non-trivial solution.

We generalise the work of Cramér and Leadbetter, Ylvisaker and Ito on the level crossings of a stationary Gaussian process to multivariate processes. Necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of the expected number of crossings E(C) of the boundary of a region of ℝp by a stationary vector stochastic process are obtained, along with an explicit formula for E(C) in the Gaussian case. A rigorous proof of Belyaev's integral formula for the factorial moments of the number of exits from a region of ℝp is given for a class of processes which includes Gaussian processes having a finite second order spectral moment matrix. Applications to χ2 processes are briefly considered.

A common problem in Bayesian object recognition using marked point process models is to produce a point estimate of the true underlying object configuration: the number of objects and the size, location and shape of each object. We use decision theory and the concept of loss functions to design a more reasonable estimator for this purpose, rather than using the common zero-one loss corresponding to the maximum a posteriori estimator. We propose to use the squared Δ-metric of Baddeley (1992) as our loss function and demonstrate that the corresponding optimal Bayesian estimator can be well approximated by combining Markov chain Monte Carlo methods with simulated annealing into a two-step algorithm. The proposed loss function is tested using a marked point process model developed for locating cells in confocal microscopy images.

Dynamic asset allocation strategies that are continuously rebalanced so as to always keep a fixed constant proportion of wealth invested in the various assets at each point in time play a fundamental role in the theory of optimal portfolio strategies. In this paper we study the rate of return on investment, defined here as the net gain in wealth divided by the cumulative investment, for such investment strategies in continuous time. Among other results, we prove that the limiting distribution of this measure of return is a gamma distribution. This limit theorem allows for comparisons of different strategies. For example, the mean return on investment is maximized by the same strategy that maximizes logarithmic utility, which is also known to maximize the exponential rate at which wealth grows. The return from this policy turns out to have other stochastic dominance properties as well. We also study the return on the risky investment alone, defined here as the present value of the gain from investment divided by the present value of the cumulative investment in the risky asset needed to achieve the gain. We show that for the log-optimal, or optimal growth policy, this return tends to an exponential distribution. We compare the return from the optimal growth policy with the return from a policy that invests a constant amount in the risky stock. We show that for the case of a single risky investment, the constant investor's expected return is twice that of the optimal growth policy. This difference can be considered the cost for insuring that the proportional investor does not go bankrupt.

In this paper we study the problem of pricing contingent claims for a large investor (i.e. the coefficients of the price equation can also depend on the wealth process of the hedger) in an incomplete market where the portfolios are constrained. We formulate this problem so as to find the minimal solution of forward-backward stochastic differential equations (FBSDEs) with constraints. We use the penalization method to construct a sequence of FBSDEs without constraints, and we show that the solutions of these equations converge to the minimal solution we are interested in.

We discuss the uniqueness of the Fréchet mean of a class of distributions on the shape space of k labelled points in ℝ2, the supports of which could be the entire space. From this it follows that the shape of the means is the unique Fréchet mean shape of the induced distribution with respect to an appropriate metric structure, provided the distribution of k labelled points in ℝ2 is isotropic and satisfies a further mild condition. This result implies that an increasing sequence of procrustean mean shapes defined in either of the two ways used in practice will tend almost surely to the shape of the means.

Let Tr be the first time at which a random walk Sn escapes from the strip [-r,r], and let |STr|-r be the overshoot of the boundary of the strip. We investigate the order of magnitude of the overshoot, as r → ∞, by providing necessary and sufficient conditions for the ‘stability’ of |STr|, by which we mean that |STr|/r converges to 1, either in probability (weakly) or almost surely (strongly), as r → ∞. These also turn out to be equivalent to requiring only the boundedness of |STr|/r, rather than its convergence to 1, either in the weak or strong sense, as r → ∞. The almost sure characterisation turns out to be extremely simple to state and to apply: we have |STr|/r → 1 a.s. if and only if EX2 < ∞ and EX = 0 or 0 < |EX| ≤ E|X| < ∞. Proving this requires establishing the equivalence of the stability of STr with certain dominance properties of the maximum partial sum Sn* = max{|Sj|: 1 ≤ j ≤ n} over its maximal increment.

We consider a stationary germ-grain model Ξ with convex and compact grains and the distance r(x) from x ε ℝd to Ξ. For almost all points x ε ℝd there exists a unique point p(x) in the boundary of Ξ such that r(x) is the length of the vector x-p(x), which is called the spherical contact vector at x. In this paper we relate the distribution of the spherical contact vector to the times it takes a typical boundary point of Ξ to hit another grain if all grains start growing at the same time and at the same speed. The notion of a typical point is made precise by using the generalized curvature measures of Ξ. The result generalizes a well known formula for the Boolean model. Specific examples are discussed in detail.

Dependability evaluation is a basic component in the assessment of the quality of repairable systems. We develop a model taking simultaneously into account the occurrence of failures and repairs, together with the observation of user-defined success events. The model is built from a Markovian description of the behavior of the system. We obtain the distribution function of the joint number of observed failures and of delivered services on a fixed mission period of the system. In particular, the marginal distribution of the number of failures can be directly related to the distribution of the Markovian arrival process extensively used in queueing theory. We give both the analytical expressions of the considered distributions and the algorithmic solutions for their evaluation. An asymptotic analysis is also provided.

For a stationary point process X of sets in the convex ring in ℝd, a relation is given between the mean particles of the section process X ∩ E (where E varies through the set of k-dimensional subspaces in ℝd) and a mean particle of X. In particular, it is shown that the mean bodies of all planar sections of X determine the Blaschke body of X and hence the mean normal distribution of X.

Recently, Asmussen and Koole (Journal of Applied Probability30, pp. 365–372) showed that any discrete or continuous time marked point process can be approximated by a sequence of arrival streams modulated by finite state continuous time Markov chains. If the original process is customer (time) stationary then so are the approximating processes. Also, the moments in the stationary case converge. For discrete marked point processes we construct a sequence of discrete processes modulated by discrete time finite state Markov chains. All the above features of approximating sequences of Asmussen and Koole continue to hold. For discrete arrival sequences (to a queue) which are modulated by a countable state Markov chain we form a different sequence of approximating arrival streams by which, unlike in the Asmussen and Koole case, even the stationary moments of waiting times can be approximated. Explicit constructions for the output process of a queue and the total input process of a discrete time Jackson network with these characteristics are obtained.

We consider a risk process with stochastic interest rate, and show that the probability of eventual ruin and the Laplace transform of the time of ruin can be found by solving certain boundary value problems involving integro-differential equations. These equations are then solved for a number of special cases. We also show that a sequence of such processes converges weakly towards a diffusion process, and analyze the above-mentioned ruin quantities for the limit process in some detail.