When a random field (Xt,t∈ℝ2) is thresholded on a given level u, the excursion set is given by its indicator 1[u, ∞)(Xt). The purpose of this work is to study functionals (as established in stochastic geometry) of these random excursion sets as, e.g. the capacity functional as well as the second moment measure of the boundary length. It extends results obtained for the one-dimensional case to the two-dimensional case, with tools borrowed from crossings theory, in particular, Rice methods, and from integral and stochastic geometry.

We study random walks whose increments are α-stable distributions with shape parameter 1<α<2. Specifically, assuming a mean increment size which is negative, we provide series expansions in terms of the mean increment size for the probability that the all-time maximum of an α-stable random walk is equal to 0 and, in the totally skewed-to-the-left case of skewness parameter β=-1, for the expected value of the all-time maximum of an α-stable random walk. Our series expansions generalize previous results for Gaussian random walks. Key ingredients in our proofs are Spitzer's identity for random walks, the stability property of α-stable random variables, and Zolotarev's integral representation for the cumulative distribution function of an α-stable random variable. We also discuss an application of our results to a problem arising in queueing theory.

We study solvency of insurers in a comprehensive model where various economic factors affect the capital developments of the companies. The main interest is in the impact of real growth to ruin probabilities. The volume of the business is allowed to increase or decrease. In the latter case, the study is focused on run-off companies. Our main results give sharp asymptotic estimates for infinite-time ruin probabilities.

We study G/G/∞ queues with renewal alternating service interruptions, where the service station experiences `up' and `down' periods. The system operates normally in the up periods, and all servers stop functioning while customers continue entering the system during the down periods. The amount of service a customer has received when an interruption occurs will be conserved and the service will resume when the down period ends. We use a two-parameter process to describe the system dynamics: Xr(t,y) tracking the number of customers in the system at time t that have residual service times strictly greater than y. The service times are assumed to satisfy either of the two conditions: they are independent and identically distributed with a distribution of a finite support, or are a stationary and weakly dependent sequence satisfying the ϕ-mixing condition and having a continuous marginal distribution function. We consider the system in a heavy-traffic asymptotic regime where the arrival rate gets large and service time distribution is fixed, and the interruption down times are asymptotically negligible while the up times are of the same order as the service times. We show the functional law of large numbers and functional central limit theorem (FCLT) for the process Xr(t,y) in this regime, where the convergence is in the space 𝔻([0,∞), (𝔻, L1)) endowed with the Skorokhod M1 topology. The limit processes in the FCLT possess a stochastic decomposition property.

Given any two vertices u, v of a random geometric graph G(n, r), denote by dE(u, v) their Euclidean distance and by dE(u, v) their graph distance. The problem of finding upper bounds on dG(u, v) conditional on dE(u, v) that hold asymptotically almost surely has received quite a bit of attention in the literature. In this paper we improve the known upper bounds for values of r=ω(√logn) (that is, for r above the connectivity threshold). Our result also improves the best known estimates on the diameter of random geometric graphs. We also provide a lower bound on dE(u, v) conditional on dE(u, v).

We study the convergence properties of a Monte Carlo estimator proposed in the physics literature to compute the quasi-stationary distribution on a transient set of a Markov chain (see De Oliveira and Dickman (2005), (2006), and Dickman and Vidigal (2002)). Using the theory of stochastic approximations we verify the consistency of the estimator and obtain an associated central limit theorem. We provide an example showing that convergence might occur very slowly if a certain eigenvalue condition is violated. We alleviate this problem using an easy-to-implement projection step combined with averaging.

We study partial hedging for game options in markets with transaction costs bounded from below. More precisely, we assume that the investor's transaction costs for each trade are the maximum between proportional transaction costs and a fixed transaction cost. We prove that in the continuous-time Black‒Scholes (BS) model, there exists a trading strategy which minimizes the shortfall risk. Furthermore, we use binomial models in order to provide numerical schemes for the calculation of the shortfall risk and the corresponding optimal portfolio in the BS model.

In this paper we present multivariate space-time fractional Poisson processes by considering common random time-changes of a (finite-dimensional) vector of independent classical (nonfractional) Poisson processes. In some cases we also consider compound processes. We obtain some equations in terms of some suitable fractional derivatives and fractional difference operators, which provides the extension of known equations for the univariate processes.

Let (X1,...,Xn) be multivariate normal, with mean vector 𝛍 and covariance matrix 𝚺, and let Sn=eX1+⋯+eXn. The Laplace transform ℒ(θ)=𝔼e-θSn∝∫exp{-hθ(𝒙)}d𝒙 is represented as ℒ̃(θ)I(θ), where ℒ̃(θ) is given in closed form and I(θ) is the error factor (≈1). We obtain ℒ̃(θ) by replacing hθ(𝒙) with a second-order Taylor expansion around its minimiser 𝒙*. An algorithm for calculating the asymptotic expansion of 𝒙* is presented, and it is shown that I(θ)→ 1 as θ→∞. A variety of numerical methods for evaluating I(θ) is discussed, including Monte Carlo with importance sampling and quasi-Monte Carlo. Numerical examples (including Laplace-transform inversion for the density of Sn) are also given.

For natural integer n, let D n denote the random variable taking the values log d for d dividing n with uniform probability 1/τ(n). Then t↦ℙ(D n ≤n t ) (0≤t≤1) is an arithmetic process with respect to the uniform probability over the first N integers. It is known from previous works that this process converges to a limit law and that the same holds for various extensions. We investigate the generalized moments of arbitrary orders for the limit laws. We also evaluate the mean value of the two-dimensional distribution function ℙ(D n ≤n u , D{n/D n}≤n v ).

We introduce exact methods for the simulation of sample paths of one-dimensional diffusions with a discontinuity in the drift function. Our procedures require the simulation of finite-dimensional candidate draws from probability laws related to those of Brownian motion and its local time, and are based on the principle of retrospective rejection sampling. A simple illustration is provided.

The theory of influence and sharp threshold is a key tool in probability and probabilistic combinatorics, with numerous applications. One significant aspect of the theory is directed at identifying the level of generality of the product probability space that accommodates the event under study. We derive the influence inequality for a completely general product space, by establishing a relationship to the Lebesgue cube studied by Bourgain, Kahn, Kalai, Katznelson and Linial (BKKKL) in 1992. This resolves one of the assertions of BKKKL. Our conclusion is valid also in the setting of the generalized influences of Keller.

The explicit form for the characteristic function of a stable distribution on the line is derived analytically by solving the associated functional equation and applying the theory of regular variation, without appeal to the general Lévy‒Khintchine integral representation of infinitely divisible distributions.

Famously, a d-dimensional, spatially homogeneous random walk whose increments are nondegenerate, have finite second moments, and have zero mean is recurrent if d∈{1,2}, but transient if d≥3. Once spatial homogeneity is relaxed, this is no longer true. We study a family of zero-drift spatially nonhomogeneous random walks (Markov processes) whose increment covariance matrix is asymptotically constant along rays from the origin, and which, in any ambient dimension d≥2, can be adjusted so that the walk is either transient or recurrent. Natural examples are provided by random walks whose increments are supported on ellipsoids that are symmetric about the ray from the origin through the walk's current position; these elliptic random walks generalize the classical homogeneous Pearson‒Rayleigh walk (the spherical case). Our proof of the recurrence classification is based on fundamental work of Lamperti.

Preferential attachment is a widely adopted paradigm for understanding the dynamics of social networks. Formal statistical inference, for instance GLM techniques, and model-verification methods will require knowing test statistics are asymptotically normal even though node- or count-based network data are nothing like classical data from independently replicated experiments. We therefore study asymptotic normality of degree counts for a sequence of growing simple undirected preferential attachment graphs. The methods of proof rely on identifying martingales and then exploiting the martingale central limit theorems.

The self-similar growth-fragmentation equation describes the evolution of a medium in which particles grow and divide as time proceeds, with the growth and splitting of each particle depending only upon its size. The critical case of the equation, in which the growth and division rates balance one another, was considered in Doumic and Escobedo (2015) for the homogeneous case where the rates do not depend on the particle size. Here, we study the general self-similar case, using a probabilistic approach based on Lévy processes and positive self-similar Markov processes which also permits us to analyse quite general splitting rates. Whereas existence and uniqueness of the solution are rather easy to establish in the homogeneous case, the equation in the nonhomogeneous case has some surprising features. In particular, using the fact that certain self-similar Markov processes can enter (0,∞) continuously from either 0 or ∞, we exhibit unexpected spontaneous generation of mass in the solutions.

Starting with independent, identically distributed random variables X 1,X 2... and their partial sums (S n ), together with a nondecreasing sequence (b(n)), we consider the counting variable N=∑n 1(S n >b(n)) and aim for necessary and sufficient conditions on X 1 in order to obtain the existence of certain moments for N, as well as for generalized counting variables with weights, and multi-index random variables. The existence of the first moment of N when b(n)=εn, i.e. ∑n=1 ∞ℙ(|S n |>εn)<∞, corresponds to the notion of complete convergence as introduced by Hsu and Robbins in 1947 as a complement to Kolmogorov's strong law.

Natural disasters may have considerable impact on society as well as on the (re-)insurance industry. Max-stable processes are ideally suited for the modelling of the spatial extent of such extreme events, but it is often assumed that there is no temporal dependence. Only a few papers have introduced spatiotemporal max-stable models, extending the Smith, Schlather and Brown‒Resnick spatial processes. These models suffer from two major drawbacks: time plays a similar role to space and the temporal dynamics are not explicit. In order to overcome these defects, we introduce spatiotemporal max-stable models where we partly decouple the influence of time and space in their spectral representations. We introduce both continuous- and discrete-time versions. We then consider particular Markovian cases with a max-autoregressive representation and discuss their properties. Finally, we briefly propose an inference methodology which is tested through a simulation study.

In this paper we give a simple proof of a limit theorem for the length of the largest interval straddling a fixed number of points that are independent and uniformly distributed on a unit interval. The key step in our argument is a classical theorem of Watson on the maxima of m-dependent stationary stochastic sequences.