This paper introduces a method of generating real harmonizable multifractional Lévy motions (RHMLMs). The simulation of these fields is closely related to that of infinitely divisible laws or Lévy processes. In the case where the control measure of the RHMLM is finite, generalized shot-noise series are used. An estimation of the error is also given. Otherwise, the RHMLM Xh is split into two independent RHMLMs, Xε,1 and Xε,2. More precisely, Xε,2 is an RHMLM whose control measure is finite. It can then be rewritten as a generalized shot-noise series. The asymptotic behaviour of Xε,1 as ε → 0+ is further elaborated. Sufficient conditions to approximate Xε,1 by a multifractional Brownian motion are given. The error rate in terms of Berry-Esseen bounds is then discussed. Finally, some examples of simulation are given.

This paper proposes a class of complete financial market models, the benchmark models, with security price processes that exhibit intensity-based jumps. The benchmark or reference unit is chosen to be the growth-optimal portfolio. Primary security account prices, when expressed in units of the benchmark, turn out to be local martingales. In the proposed framework an equivalent risk-neutral measure need not exist. Benchmarked fair derivative prices are obtained as conditional expectations of future benchmarked prices under the real-world probability measure. This concept of fair pricing generalizes the classical risk-neutral approach and the actuarial present-value pricing methodology.

We study the asymptotic properties of a minimal spanning tree formed by n points uniformly distributed in the unit square, where the minimality is amongst all rooted spanning trees with a direction of growth. We show that the number of branches from the root of this tree, the total length of these branches, and the length of the longest branch each converges weakly. This model is related to the study of record values in the theory of extreme-value statistics and this relation is used to obtain our results. The results also hold when the tree is formed from a Poisson point process of intensity n in the unit square.

In this paper, we study the on-line parameter estimation problem for a partially observable system subject to deterioration and random failure. The state of the system evolves according to a continuous-time homogeneous Markov process with a finite state space. The state of the system is hidden except for the failure state. When the system is operating, only the information obtained by condition monitoring, which is related to the working state of the system, is available. The condition monitoring observations are assumed to be in continuous range, so that no discretization is required. A recursive maximum likelihood (RML) algorithm is proposed for the on-line parameter estimation of the model. The new RML algorithm proposed in the paper is superior to other RML algorithms in the literature in that no projection is needed and no calculation of the gradient on the surface of the constraint manifolds is required. A numerical example is provided to illustrate the algorithm.

Let {X k , k ≥ 1} be a sequence of independently and identically distributed random variables with common subexponential distribution function concentrated on (−∞, ∞), and let τ be a nonnegative and integer-valued random variable with a finite mean and which is independent of the sequence {X k , k ≥ 1}. This paper investigates asymptotic behavior of the tail probabilities P(· > x) and the local probabilities P(x < · ≤ x + h) of the quantities and for n ≥ 1, and their randomized versions X (τ), S τ and S (τ), where X 0 = 0 by convention and h > 0 is arbitrarily fixed.

Let {X k , k ≥ 1} be a sequence of independent, identically distributed nonnegative random variables with common distribution function F and finite expectation μ > 0. Under the assumption that the tail probability is consistently varying as x tends to infinity, this paper investigates precise large deviations for both the partial sums S n and the random sums S N(t), where N(·) is a counting process independent of the sequence {X k , k ≥ 1}. The obtained results improve some related classical ones. Applications to a risk model with negatively associated claim occurrences and to a risk model with a doubly stochastic arrival process (extended Cox process) are proposed.

The main result of the paper is a refinement of Xia's (1997) bound on the Kantorovich distance between distributions of a Bernoulli point process and an approximating Poisson process. In particular, we show that the distance between distributions of a Bernoulli point process and the Poisson process with the same mean measure has the order of the total variation distance between the laws of the total masses of these processes.

This paper introduces a new estimation technique for discretely observed diffusion processes. Transform functions are applied to transform the data to obtain good and easily calculated estimators of both the drift and diffusion coefficients. Consistency and asymptotic normality of the resulting estimators is investigated. Power transforms are used to estimate the parameters of affine diffusions, for which explicit estimators are obtained.

We review some urn and random-allocation models, mostly using probability generating function (PGF) methods. We begin by formulating a basic problem which can be thought of as either an urn or a random-allocation model; a PGF solution to it is outlined. When the compartments in the latter model are no longer homogeneous, the multivariate PGF can still be derived, though the algebra becomes cumbersome. Some results are given for the case where there are two types of compartment and for the case where there are two types of ball. Some comments are offered on the Frobenius–Harper property of PGFs.

Using the kernel representation of a continuous-time Lévy-driven ARMA (autoregressive moving average) process, we extend the class of nonnegative Lévy-driven Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes employed by Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (2001) to allow for nonmonotone autocovariance functions. We also consider a class of fractionally integrated Lévy-driven continuous-time ARMA processes obtained by a simple modification of the kernel of the continuous-time ARMA process. Asymptotic properties of the kernel and of the autocovariance function are derived.

Using a known fact that a Galton–Watson branching process can be represented as an embedded random walk, together with a result of Heyde (1964), we first derive finite exponential moment results for the total number of descendants of an individual. We use this basic and simple result to prove analogous results for the population size at time t and the total number of descendants by time t in an age-dependent branching process. This has applications in justifying the interchange of expectation and derivative operators in simulation-based derivative estimation for generalized semi-Markov processes. Next, using the result of Heyde (1964), we show that, in a stable GI/GI/1 queue, the length of a busy period and the number of customers served in a busy period have finite exponential moments if and only if the service time does.

This paper has as its main theme the fitting in practice of the variance-gamma distribution, which allows for skewness, by moment methods. This fitting procedure allows for possible dependence of increments in log returns, while retaining their stationarity. It is intended as a step in a partial synthesis of some ideas of Madan, Carr and Chang (1998) and of Heyde (1999). Standard estimation and hypothesis-testing theory depends on a large sample of observations which are independently as well as identically distributed and consequently may give inappropriate conclusions in the presence of dependence.

The entropy score of an observed outcome that has been given a probability forecast p is defined to be –log p. If p is derived from a probability model and there is a background model for which the same outcome has probability π, then the log ratio log(p/π) is the probability gain, and its expected value the information gain, for that outcome. Such concepts are closely related to the likelihood of the model and its entropy rate. The relationships between these concepts are explored in the case that the outcomes in question are the occurrence or nonoccurrence of events in a stochastic point process. It is shown that, in such a context, the mean information gain per unit time, based on forecasts made at arbitrary discrete time intervals, is bounded above by the entropy rate of the point process. Two examples illustrate how the information gain may be related to realizations with a range of values of ‘predictability'.

It is a stylized fact that estimators in extreme-value theory suffer from serious bias. Moreover, graphical representations of extremal data often show erratic behaviour. In the statistical literature it is advised to use a Box–Cox transformation in order to make data more suitable for statistical analysis. We provide some of the theoretical background to see the effect of such transformations and to investigate under what circumstances they might be helpful.

Motivated by a problem in neural encoding, we introduce an adaptive (or real-time) parameter estimation algorithm driven by a counting process. Despite the long history of adaptive algorithms, this kind of algorithm is relatively new. We develop a finite-time averaging analysis which is nonstandard partly because of the point process setting and partly because we have sought to avoid requiring mixing conditions. This is significant since mixing conditions often place restrictive history-dependent requirements on algorithm convergence.

Consider an inhomogeneous germ-grain model with spherical grains whose radii depend on their positions through a rate function, possibly perturbed by a random noise. We find the critical rate function that separates the cases when the germ-grain model covers the whole space with a positive probability and when the total coverage occurs with probability zero.

For arbitrary stationary sequences of random variables satisfying a mild mixing condition, distributional approximations are established for functionals of clusters of exceedances over a high threshold. The approximations are in terms of the distribution of the process conditionally on the event that the first variable exceeds the threshold. This conditional distribution is shown to converge to a nontrivial limit if the finite-dimensional distributions of the process are in the domain of attraction of a multivariate extreme-value distribution. In this case, therefore, limit distributions are obtained for functionals of clusters of extremes, thereby generalizing results for higher-order stationary Markov chains by Yun (2000).

This note investigates the simulation algorithm proposed by van Lieshout and van Zwet (2001). It is seen that this algorithm generally produces biased samples; the nature of this bias is further explored in a technical report by the author.

In this paper, we give an explicit expression for the distribution of the number of sides (or equivalently vertices) of the typical cell of a two-dimensional Poisson-Voronoi tessellation. We use this formula to give a table of numerical values of the distribution function.

We consider the stochastic sequence {Yt}t∈ℕ defined recursively by the linear relation Yt+1=AtYt+Bt in a random environment. The environment is described by the stochastic process {(At,Bt)}t∈ℕ and is under the simultaneous control of several agents playing a discounted stochastic game. We formulate sufficient conditions on the game which ensure the existence of Nash equilibria in Markov strategies which have the additional property that, in equilibrium, the process {Yt}t∈ℕ converges in distribution to a stationary regime.