6 - Weighing the Dead

Summary

Chapter 6 analyzes the impact of casualties on elections during the war. Statewide elections were staggered throughout the calendar in ways that make those election returns function like a tracking poll of partisan support. Contrary to modern war studies, I find Republican vote shares did not deteriorate in response to national casualties. I validate my analytical approach with evidence of highly nationalized and synchronized elections linking party votes for House, governor, and president both before and during the war. However, local deaths moved voters on the margins, with disparate impacts based on the balance of local partisanship. Local deaths depressed Republican vote share in prewar Democratic bastions but not in Republican strongholds. Recent deaths were especially potent. It suggests that the combination of partisan identities, local partisan leaders, and local social environments shaped local interpretations of the war – including its unprecedented human costs. Local casualties did change the electoral behavior of some voters, while most stood pat. Partisan mechanisms guided who responded and how.