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The Electoral Inconsequence of Wartime Events
from Part II - Ballots in a Partisan Civil War
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 20 October 2020
Chapter 7 investigates electoral stability in response to specific wartime events with a brief historical narrative of wartime events along the way. Most Civil War accounts describe a highly volatile public mood, threatening Republican electoral fortunes. Instead, I find vote shares were almost entirely stable despite epic events like the 1864 Atlanta victory. The only national dip in Republican support came in fall 1862, and periodic midterm losses for the president’s party may explain it best. Overall, the chapter shows shockingly stable national partisan voting in these wartime elections, even with the conditional shifts based on local deaths. Even as party policy positions and epic events changed rapidly across the war, voters mostly stuck with their own party.
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