Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Dedication
- Contents
- Figures
- Tables
- Preface
- Acknowledgements
- 1 Introduction
- 2 Election-Related Violence in Kenya and around the World
- 3 Theorizing Election-Related Violence: Toward a Theory of Elite Misperception
- 4 Violence and Election Outcomes
- 5 How Violence Affects Voting: Coercion, Persuasion, and Backlash
- 6 Elite Misperception and Election-Related Violence
- 7 Voter Backlash, Elite Misperception, and Violence beyond Kenya
- 8 Conclusion
- Appendix A Sampling Strategy for the Survey in Nakuru, Kisumu, and Narok
- Appendix B Supplementary Analyses
- Appendix C Candidate Vignettes and Outcome Questions
- Appendix D Politician Information Experiment Memo and Contact Scripts
- References
- Index
4 - Violence and Election Outcomes
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 18 May 2023
- Frontmatter
- Dedication
- Contents
- Figures
- Tables
- Preface
- Acknowledgements
- 1 Introduction
- 2 Election-Related Violence in Kenya and around the World
- 3 Theorizing Election-Related Violence: Toward a Theory of Elite Misperception
- 4 Violence and Election Outcomes
- 5 How Violence Affects Voting: Coercion, Persuasion, and Backlash
- 6 Elite Misperception and Election-Related Violence
- 7 Voter Backlash, Elite Misperception, and Violence beyond Kenya
- 8 Conclusion
- Appendix A Sampling Strategy for the Survey in Nakuru, Kisumu, and Narok
- Appendix B Supplementary Analyses
- Appendix C Candidate Vignettes and Outcome Questions
- Appendix D Politician Information Experiment Memo and Contact Scripts
- References
- Index
Summary
Chapter 4 evaluates the overall relationship between violence and election outcomes, finding that violence provides no benefit, on average, to the parties that use it. In some cases, it may even undermine the candidacies of the politicians associated with it. In particular, an analysis of the relationship between the incidence of violence prior to elections in Kenyas first two multiparty elections in the 1990s and constituency-level election outcomes for the ruling KANU party (the primary instigator of the violence) finds no relationship between the incidence of violence and KANU vote share or the likelihood that their parliamentary candidates won election. Second, an analysis of the subsequent electoral performance of candidates allegedly involved in the large outbreak of violence in 2007/08 finds that these candidates lost their reelection bids at a much higher rate than the average incumbent. Several lost in rather unusual ways, including by losing their party primaries, losing to minority ethnic group candidates, or losing the general election after securing the nomination of the locally dominant party.
- Type
- Chapter
- Information
- Voter Backlash and Elite MisperceptionThe Logic of Violence in Electoral Competition, pp. 75 - 85Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 2023