Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-gb8f7 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-24T04:48:54.191Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

7 - Performance Monitoring for Supervisory Stress-Testing Models

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  02 March 2023

David Lynch
Affiliation:
Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Iftekhar Hasan
Affiliation:
Fordham University Graduate Schools of Business
Akhtar Siddique
Affiliation:
Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
Get access

Summary

Stress-testing models pose a unique set of challenges with respect to performance monitoring. In particular, unlike standard forecasting models that generate unconditional forecasts, stress-testing models generate conditional forecasts based on stress scenarios that are unlikely to occur. This critical difference greatly limits one’s ability to assess model projections with observed outcomes. We provide several different methods for this purpose

Type
Chapter
Information
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2023

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Acerbi, C. and Szekely, B. (2019). The Minimally Biased Backtest for Expected Shortfall. Risk, 29, September, 1–6.Google Scholar
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (2011). Supervisory Guidance on Model Risk Management. SR Letter 11-7, 4/4/2011.Google Scholar
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, (2013). Capital Planning at Large Bank Holding Companies: Supervisory Expectations and Range of Current Practice.Google Scholar
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, (2016). Dodd–Frank Stress Testing 2016: Supervisory Stress Test Methodology and Results.Google Scholar
Clark, T. and McCracken, M. (2016). Tests of Predictive Ability for Vector Autoregressions Used for Conditional Forecasting. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 32, 533553.Google Scholar
Deng, A., Hirtle, B. and Kovner, A. (2015). Are BHCs Mimicking the Fed’s Stress Test Results? Federal Reserve Bank of New York Liberty Street Economics, September 21.Google Scholar
Faust, J. and Wright, J. (2008). Efficient Forecast Tests for Conditional Policy Forecasts. Journal of Econometrics, 146, 293303.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Frame, W. S., Gerardi, K. and Willen, P. S. (2015). The Failure of Supervisory Stress Testing: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and OFHEO. Manuscript, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.Google Scholar
Giacomini, R. and White, H. (2006). Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability. Econometrica, 74, 15451578.Google Scholar
Glasserman, P. and Tangirala, G. (2016). Are the Federal Reserve’s Stress Test Results Predictable? Journal of Alternative Investments, 18, 8297.Google Scholar
Granger, C. W. J. and Huang, L. L. (1997). Evaluation of Panel Data Models: Some Suggestions from Time Series. UCSD Working Paper #97-10.Google Scholar
Hardy, D. C. and Schmieder, C. (2013). Rules of Thumb for Bank Solvency Stress Testing. IMF Working Paper WP/13/232.Google Scholar
Hirtle, B., Kovner, A. and McKay, E. (2014). Becoming More Alike? Comparing Bank and Federal Reserve Stress Test Results. Federal Reserve Bank of New York Liberty Street Economics, July 21.Google Scholar
Hirtle, B., Kovner, A., and McKay, E., (2015). Are BHC and Federal Reserve Stress Test Results Converging? What Do We Learn from 2015? Federal Reserve Bank of New York Liberty Street Economics, April 15.Google Scholar
Hughes, T. (2012). Validating Stress-Testing Models. Moody’s Analytics whitepaper, June.Google Scholar
Jan, S. R., Shah, S. T. U., Johar, Z. U., Shah, Y. and Khan, F. (2016). An Innovative Approach to Investigate Various Software Testing Techniques and Strategies. International Journal of Scientific Research in Science, Engineering and Technology, 2, 682689.Google Scholar
Khan, M. E. and Khan, F. (2012). A Comparative Study of White Box, Black Box and Grey Box Testing Techniques. International Journal of Advanced Computer Science and Applications, 3, 1215.Google Scholar
Patton, A. J. and Timmermann, A. (2010). Monotonicity in Asset Returns: New Tests with Applications to the Term Structure, the CAPM, and Portfolio Sorts. Journal of Financial Economics, 98, 605625.Google Scholar
Pesaran, M. H. and Smith, R. P. (1985). Evaluation of Macroeconometric Models. Economic Modelling, April, 125–134.Google Scholar
Pesaran, M. H. and Timmermann, A. (2005). Real-Time Econometrics. Econometric Theory, 21, 212231.Google Scholar
Rajan, U., Seru, A. and Vig, V. (2015). The Failure of Models that Predict Failure: Distance, Incentives, and Defaults. Journal of Financial Economics, 115, 237260.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Romer, C. and Romer, D. (2008). The FOMC versus the Staff: Where Can Monetary Policymakers Add Value? American Economic Review, 98, 230235.Google Scholar
Taleb, N., Canetti, E., Kinda, T., Loukoianova, E. and Schmieder, C. (2012). A New Heuristic Measure of Fragility and Tail Risks: Application to Stress Testing. IMF Working Paper WP/12/216.Google Scholar
Williams, J. C. (2015). Macroprudential Policy in a Microprudential World, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter, June 1.Google Scholar

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure [email protected] is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

Available formats
×