Skip to main content Accessibility help

We use cookies to distinguish you from other users and to provide you with a better experience on our websites. Close this message to accept cookies or find out how to manage your cookie settings.

Close cookie message
×
Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-8ctnn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-26T01:19:30.145Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

9 - Explaining the Divergence Between UCR and NCVS Aggravated Assault Trends

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  23 December 2009

By
Richard Rosenfeld
Edited by
James P. Lynch  and
Lynn A. Addington
Richard Rosenfeld
Affiliation:
Professor of Criminology and Criminal Justice, University of Missouri–St. Louis
James P. Lynch
Affiliation:
John Jay College of Criminal Justice, City University of New York
Lynn A. Addington
Affiliation:
American University, Washington DC
Get access

Summary

Trends in aggravated assaults recorded by the police and those reported in victim surveys diverge over time in the United States. Police-recorded assaults trend upward during the 1980s and flatten in the 1990s, whereas survey-estimated assaults are flat during the 1980s and decline during the 1990s. Previous research has attributed the divergence between the police and survey trends to changes in police recording practices, independent of the underlying rate of victimization (Blumstein, 1998; O'Brien, 1996). This study adds to that research by comparing police and survey trends in firearm and nonfirearm aggravated assaults, on the assumption that police recording practices are more likely to affect the latter than the former. Consistent with this assumption, the results show much less divergence in gun than nongun assault time trends. Together with previous research, this study offers strong, albeit circumstantial, evidence that changes in police recording of assaults explain much of the divergence in aggravated assault trends derived from police records and victim surveys. It also appears that the NCVS redesign has helped to reduce the divergence between UCR and NCVS aggravated assault trends in recent years.

BACKGROUND AND SIGNIFICANCE

Although the United States' two major crime indicators, the FBI's Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) and the Bureau of Justice Statistics' National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), are based on distinct methods of obtaining information about the number and nature of criminal events, they should tell essentially the same story about changes in crime rates over time.

Type
Chapter
Information
Understanding Crime Statistics
Revisiting the Divergence of the NCVS and the UCR
 , pp. 251 - 268
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2006

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Biderman, A. D., & Lynch, J. P. (1991). Understanding crime incidence statistics: Why the UCR diverges from the NCS. New York: Springer.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blumstein, A. (1998). “Violence certainly is the problem – and especially with hand guns.” University of Colorado Law Review 69:945–965.Google Scholar
Blumstein, A., Cohen, J., & Rosenfeld, R. (1991). “Trend and deviation in crime rates: A comparison of UCR and NCS data for burglary and robbery.” Criminology 29:237–263.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blumstein, A., Cohen, J., & Rosenfeld, R. (1992). “The UCR-NCS relationship revisited: A reply to Menard.” Criminology 30:115–124.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blumstein, A., & Wallman, J. (2000). The crime drop in America. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Bureau of Justice Statistics. (Annual). Criminal victimization in the United States. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Justice.
Federal Bureau of Investigation. (Annual). Crime in the United States. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.
Jencks, C. (1991). “Is violent crime increasing?” American Prospect (winter):98–109.Google Scholar
Kindermann, C., Lynch, J., & Cantor, D. (1997). Effects of the redesign on victimization estimates. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Justice.Google Scholar
Lanza-Kaduce, L., Greenleaf, R. G., & Armstrong, M. (1995). “Trickle-up report writing: The impact of a proarrest policy for domestic disturbances.” Justice Quarterly 12:525–542.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lauritsen, J. L. (2005). “Social and scientific influences on the measurement of criminal victimization.” Journal of Quantitative Criminology 21:245–266.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Menard, S., & Covey, H. C. (1988). “UCR and NCS: Comparisons over space and time.” Journal of Criminal Justice 16:371–384.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Messner, S. F. (1984). “The ‘dark figure’ and composite indices of crime: Some empirical explorations of alternative data sources.” Journal of Criminal Justice 12:435–444.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
O'Brien, R. M. (1985). Crime and victimization data. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.Google Scholar
O'Brien, R. M. (1990). “Comparing detrended UCR and NCS crime rates over time: 1973–1986.” Journal of Criminal Justice 18:229–238.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
O'Brien, R. M. (1996). “Police productivity and crime rates: 1973–1992.” Criminology 34:183–207.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rennison, C. M., & Rand, M. R. (2003). Criminal victimization, 2002. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Justice.Google Scholar
Rosenfeld, R. (2004). “The case of the unsolved crime decline.” Scientific American (February):82–89.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Walker, S. (1985). Sense and nonsense about crime: A policy guide. Belmont, CA: Wadsworth.Google Scholar
Walker, S. (1999). The police in America (3rd ed.). Boston: McGraw-Hill.Google Scholar

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure [email protected] is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

Available formats
×