7 - The War and Russian Intervention (Donbas)

Summary

Chapter 7 is the third part of our analytic narrative. We describe the processes that collapsed social order in Eastern Donbas. New social actors emerged and new militias found themselves in control of the territory, organized voting exercises, and refused to recognize the legitimacy of the central government. Unrecognized republics (the DNR and LNR) emerged. As Ukrainian forces were regaining territories in August 2014, despite the Russian army shelling Ukrainian border troops and sending weapons, it was not obvious whether Russia would send troops to assist “their” insurgents. Prior to Russia’s military arrival, we describe how “tidal” political processes on the streets quickly hardened what were previously fluid identity choices. The street overwhelmed old institutions as it became obvious that coordination by elites was not emergent. The realization that no law enforcement body had the capability to actually make arrests emboldened some groups, and new local players dragged their communities into sustained sedition.